Franklin0529 Posted Monday at 09:14 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:14 PM 38 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Nam coming north. Comeback of epic proportions coming. Get ready Don't do it to yourself again 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted Monday at 09:14 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:14 PM Just now, nycsnow said: Icon and rgem miss Flat as a pancake. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MorristownWx Posted Monday at 09:19 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:19 PM 4 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Icon and rgem miss Why are you doing this to yourself? admittedly, I checked in on the thread for entertainment purposes but this has been dead now for over 36 hours as a storm. We can still see snow showers or flurries, but the storm idea for us is gone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feen Posted Monday at 09:21 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:21 PM Just now, MorristownWx said: Why are you doing this to yourself? admittedly, I checked in on the thread for entertainment purposes but this has been dead now for over 36 hours as a storm. We can still see snow showers or flurries, but the storm idea for us is gone. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted Monday at 09:22 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:22 PM sorry keep your damn flurries, so done with this winter. from huge storms to heartbreak. done with the nickel and dime bs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted Monday at 09:24 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:24 PM 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: Great post about the NBM. NBM has a very bad lag and it’s not done adjusting to the new model consensus we just had, the next update will have even less snow. This one is over IMO. Today at 12z was my benchmark for declaring it dead after all the model runs completed. We are now inside of 3 days and have complete consensus on a total non event. NAM (12K, 3K), RGEM, GFS, ICON, UKMET, CMC, EURO, EURO-AIFS, GFS-GraphCast and the ensembles (GEFS, EPS, GEPS) are all in the same agreement My cutoff time has been 0Z tonight, so I'll wait a little a little longer before declaring the patient dead, plus I take seriously Walt's input here, as he's been rock solid on not going big early when many did, but also sticking with his few inches forecast, still, so while I'm pretty certain anything beyond 2-4" is dead for the 95 corridor I still think it's possible we could have a 1-2" event (and an outside shot at 2-4") instead of a complete whiff (which is also obviously possible given the models). So, I'm still following everything, but at a distance... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted Monday at 09:27 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:27 PM 3 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: sorry keep your damn flurries, so done with this winter. from huge storms to heartbreak. done with the nickel and dime bs. Amen. Give me spring barbecue season, golf. Thunderstorms 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted Monday at 09:28 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:28 PM 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Euro AI did well this non event. Never showed a hit inside 8 days Except for 12Z Saturday when it showed 0.5 QPF right along 95 (so 6"+ with ratios along 95 with ratios and 7-10" towards the coast), which is at least a significant hit (4-8"), so not sure on your definition of "hit." Certainly not "major" (8-14" is my definition of major). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowguy66 Posted Monday at 10:17 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:17 PM Weird run by the GFS. I can also came in closer to the coast before exiting stage, right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Monday at 10:37 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:37 PM 19 minutes ago, Snowguy66 said: Weird run by the GFS. I can also came in closer to the coast before exiting stage, right . And gefs. Believe in yourself. 1 1 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted Monday at 10:44 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:44 PM 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: And gefs. Believe in yourself. I think your grasping at straws Anthony but let’s see what Euro has to say in a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted Monday at 10:46 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:46 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted Monday at 10:57 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:57 PM Euro AI did well this non event. Never showed a hit inside 8 days . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted Monday at 10:58 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:58 PM Nam coming north. Comeback of epic proportions coming. Get readycan you share whatever root product you’re burning and inhaling with the rest of us. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted Monday at 11:02 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:02 PM 3 minutes ago, North and West said: can you share whatever root product you’re burning and inhaling with the rest of us . Beer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Monday at 11:02 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:02 PM 2 hours ago, nycsnow said: 2-4 with ratios Image The *ratio* is gonna be 0:0 2 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted Monday at 11:13 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:13 PM Where do I invest into the last minute 700 mile bump north 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted Monday at 11:17 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:17 PM 3 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Where do I invest into the last minute 700 mile bump north I see your 700 miles and raise it to 800. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted Monday at 11:25 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:25 PM At this point. Screw this cold. Screw this wind. Bring on the 70° and sunny. Will we get more snow here ? Most likely yes. But I'm done with it. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted Monday at 11:29 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:29 PM Winter cancel after Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted Monday at 11:32 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:32 PM 2 minutes ago, TriPol said: Winter cancel after Friday. I wouldn't say that in mid February. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted Monday at 11:49 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:49 PM 5 hours ago, weatherpruf said: I'm retired with no work season thank god, and I still hate that kinda weather. Messes up the fishing. Not that there's much to fish for anymore; really miss the old winter flounder runs, which used to be from Boston to Barnegat ( Barnegat Bay was their southern extent, many believe it was due to cedar but who knows ) I caught one in LI Sound last year porgy fishing; the kids on board had never seen one. Still see them offshore on wrecks, which is not my kinda fishing. I'm a bay rat. When I was a kid we used to easily pull flounder in bunches out of Cold Spring Harbor with a hand line. I've never been a fisherman but that was easy. I assume that may have changed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted Monday at 11:59 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:59 PM 2 hours ago, Snowlover11 said: sorry keep your damn flurries, so done with this winter. from huge storms to heartbreak. done with the nickel and dime bs. I'm not there YET but I am close as I will give it 2 more weeks and keep begging ,,,,,,,,March snow is almost always gone a day later,,,,,,,when Feb is over I get into yard and Spring mode Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted Tuesday at 12:01 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:01 AM Just now, Brasiluvsnow said: I'm not there YET but I am close as I will give it 2 more weeks and keep begging ,,,,,,,,March snow is almost always gone a day later,,,,,,,when Feb is over I get into yard and Spring mode mid march is typically when climo starts to work against us-so realistically we have 4 weeks to get another event or two 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted Tuesday at 12:03 AM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 12:03 AM 7PM 2/17/25: adjusted headline to narrow the timing goal post of what has become a much more uncertain event since initially proposed...even with the option of no snow. This despite a strong short wave passage Thursday evening. The GEFS still closes a low through PA while the EPS has weakened to an open - less ominous progressive short wave trough with no significant 850 MB onshore circulation. The 15z/17 SREF, 18z/17 NAM and 12z/17 JMA are the only models with any significant hope for snow as the globals have largely faded southeast since thread inception. The apparently lagged average BOM and 12z/17 WPC still maintain an opportunity for a period of light snow (1/2-4" nw to se on the BOM). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted Tuesday at 12:08 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:08 AM 55 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Where do I invest into the last minute 700 mile bump north If you invest in that, I have a fantastic bridge to sell you in Brooklyn. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted Tuesday at 12:19 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:19 AM 52 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: At this point. Screw this cold. Screw this wind. Bring on the 70° and sunny. Will we get more snow here ? Most likely yes. But I'm done with it. 64 degrees is better, with little to no wind... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted Tuesday at 12:30 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:30 AM 6 hours ago, Brian5671 said: And given the winter pattern so far, I doubt March is a torch I think the second half might be. WX/PT 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted Tuesday at 12:33 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:33 AM With respect to the NBM, one should note that snowfall forecasts at the fringes of storms are likely overdone. In extreme cases, measurable snowfall is forecast even when qpf is 0. That issue won't be fixed until Version 5 is released. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted Tuesday at 12:43 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:43 AM Sref pretty west Image 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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