Northof78 Posted Monday at 05:12 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:12 PM 19 minutes ago, RU848789 said: In hindsight, it looks like the Euro-AI model scored a significant modeling coup, as it never showed a major (8" or more - my definition) snowstorm for our area, unlike almost every other global model all of which showed at least a few runs with major snowfall. The Euro-AI had most runs in days 4-7 showing a minor to moderate hit with one run on Sat 12Z with significant (4-8", again, my definition) snowfall, but not major. Out of the rest of the models, the GFS was close to the Euro-AI, only showing one major snowfall run, also on 12Z Sat. The Euro, UK and CMC all had multiple major snowfall runs for our region in that timeframe (including some historic runs). So still a significant failure for the AIFS/GFS but an epic failure for the Euro/UK/CMC. IMO. GFS was in a league of its own (along with EAI), never showing a blockbuster storm, and the flattest by a wide margin over all others through the entire period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted Monday at 05:12 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:12 PM 1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: My biggest storm ever here 35 inches, Danbury CT 30 miles due east of me I think ended up with about 10 inches becuase of all the rain they started with. That was the wildest storm ever and led to a period of major flooding in March because of the runoff in NNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cardinalland Posted Monday at 05:13 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:13 PM 52 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: We got the cold here and a bunch of small events but couldn't get the big one. Hopefully later in March torches! i'm ready for a march 2012 style torch now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Monday at 05:16 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:16 PM 2 minutes ago, cardinalland said: i'm ready for a march 2012 style torch now Even worse it'll probably be 40 and rainy for the next 6 weeks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted Monday at 05:17 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:17 PM Just now, Stormlover74 said: Even worse it'll probably be 40 and rainy for the next 6 weeks Count on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted Monday at 05:36 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:36 PM Was the GFS and EAI more accurate because it handled that lobe in the west and the confluence better or was it for other reasons? Wondering if they did better by pure luck or not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted Monday at 05:41 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:41 PM Euro has the storm down around South Carolina now, with no snow north of SE VA. I get people being hopeful for a trend, but it’s time to give it up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted Monday at 05:42 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:42 PM 1 minute ago, psv88 said: Euro has the storm down around South Carolina now, with no snow north of SE VA. I get people being hopeful for a trend, but it’s time to give it up. My post was deleted when I said this on was over given the pattern…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feen Posted Monday at 05:43 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:43 PM I give up, i think this storm is a total miss now! Congratulations Cape Hatteras! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Monday at 05:44 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:44 PM DTs gotta be freaking out. He loves the euro 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted Monday at 05:44 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:44 PM 6 minutes ago, psv88 said: Euro has the storm down around South Carolina now, with no snow north of SE VA. I get people being hopeful for a trend, but it’s time to give it up. Plug has been pulled. It lived a great but short life of maybe 2-3 model runs where ensembles showed a decent shot and we had MECS operational runs. Its nickname-“Buckle up” will always cause awkward laughter and shame. The KU book booted it right out faster than the kicker diving in on it. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted Monday at 05:49 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:49 PM 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Plug has been pulled. It lived a great life of maybe 2-3 model runs where ensembles showed a decent shot and we had MECS operational runs. Its nickname-“Buckle up” will always cause awkward laughter and shame. The KU book booted it right out faster than the kicker diving in on it. the good news in the end is that it won't even be close for here...the worst ones are 2/6/10 or ones that JUST miss offshore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted Monday at 05:49 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:49 PM 6 minutes ago, qg_omega said: My post was deleted when I said this on was over given the pattern…. that's because you're a troll.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted Monday at 05:50 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:50 PM Just now, Brian5671 said: that's because you're a troll.... Thku but I was the only one here who called this storm correctly 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted Monday at 05:50 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:50 PM It is what it is. Still had a cold winter with snow here and there. Pensacola and the outer banks don’t get snow often. Freak pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted Monday at 05:52 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:52 PM 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted Monday at 05:54 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:54 PM 3 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: It is what it is. Still had a cold winter with snow here and there. Pensacola and the outer banks don’t get snow often. Freak pattern Florida had a larger storm than we did. Max event here for me was 5”. Florida had 10”…unacceptable 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted Monday at 05:55 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:55 PM 3 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: It is what it is. Still had a cold winter with snow here and there. Pensacola and the outer banks don’t get snow often. Freak pattern Yep-all the warm forecasts busted 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Monday at 05:56 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:56 PM Euro barely has a storm What a disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted Monday at 05:59 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:59 PM 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro barely has a storm What a disaster Just 48 hrs ago it was a HECS/MECS for here. Goes to show you to take even day 4-5 models lightly... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Monday at 06:02 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:02 PM 1 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted Monday at 06:05 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:05 PM As promised.... If it didn't come back by 12z today, I'd lead the charge off the cliff. Adios, storm. Bring on spring. Work boats will be dropped back into the water slowly beginning next week, as seasonal maintenance is done. Personal boats will be in by the ides of March. Goodbye underarmor, winter coats, gloves, and scotch. Hello shorts, flip flops, beautiful scenery, and beer. Maybe next year 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowguy66 Posted Monday at 06:15 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:15 PM Mike Mascoe has jumped the gun many times in the past so the fact that he was reluctant to jump on this one just means he's learning to take a conservative approach, which is smart. Doesn't mean he won't post rumors of big storms to get clicks like everybody else, but those who take a conservative approach in this form look the best at the end.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MorristownWx Posted Monday at 06:19 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:19 PM 13 minutes ago, dseagull said: As promised.... If it didn't come back by 12z today, I'd lead the charge off the cliff. Adios, storm. Bring on spring. Work boats will be dropped back into the water slowly beginning next week, as seasonal maintenance is done. Personal boats will be in by the ides of March. Goodbye underarmor, winter coats, gloves, and scotch. Hello shorts, flip flops, beautiful scenery, and beer. Maybe next year I’d be thrilled if this was the case but looks like we have at least another week of cold temps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted Monday at 06:22 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:22 PM 1 minute ago, MorristownWx said: I’d be thrilled if this was the case but looks like we have at least another week of cold temps Im patient. What i would like to avoid is late winter/early spring coastals with rain. Good for nothing in my life. I'm a hige fan of drought conditions during my work season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted Monday at 06:24 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:24 PM 13 hours ago, Snowguy66 said: All I know is If the models were showing a big storm tonight, I would be worried every minute of the day on Monday, Tuesday, even Wednesday that the models would do a wicked change. Since we don't have a big storm on the model tonight, why can't it still have a wicked change for the better? . Because , for whatever reason I do not know, it RARELY changes for the better these days when it comes to snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted Monday at 06:28 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:28 PM 8 minutes ago, MorristownWx said: I’d be thrilled if this was the case but looks like we have at least another week of cold temps And given the winter pattern so far, I doubt March is a torch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted Monday at 06:30 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:30 PM 27 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Lol ok 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted Monday at 06:34 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:34 PM 39 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Amazing what two days will do. I was projected over 30 inches, and I'm 50 miles north of the city, by the same model and two days later the Delmarva may not see flurries. It's actually hysterical that it's that bad. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted Monday at 06:37 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:37 PM 2 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Amazing what two days will do. I was projected over 30 inches, and I'm 50 miles north of the city, by the same model and two days later the Delmarva may not see flurries. It's actually hysterical that it's that bad. Mike Masco knew tho 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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