LibertyBell Posted Monday at 03:14 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:14 PM 21 minutes ago, MJO812 said: NYC is referred as the northern mid Atlantic. No access to MA? Does that mean no access to Mid Atlantic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted Monday at 03:15 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:15 PM 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: they weren't so happy about it in 09-10 I'm sure you remember the snowicane in late February when NYC and you both got over 20 inches and they got zilch lol. My biggest storm ever here 35 inches, Danbury CT 30 miles due east of me I think ended up with about 10 inches becuase of all the rain they started with. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted Monday at 03:20 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:20 PM Very frustrating hobby Kudos to the Euro AI for not showing anything significant . Like I said in the past , models should only go out until 120 hours. This is also my fault because I took off from work on Thuesday for the snowstorm. Sorry guys Can you reassign that day to Opening Day?. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Monday at 03:20 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:20 PM 3 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: My biggest storm ever here 35 inches, Danbury CT 30 miles due east of me I think ended up with about 10 inches becuase of all the rain they started with. That was the storm which really differentiated our area from New England. I was thinking our area should be named interior northeast but that doesn't cover NYC and Long Island, so maybe it should just be called the tristate area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted Monday at 03:24 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:24 PM 45 minutes ago, nycsnow said: 0z Image vs 12z Image Full on NAM cave job. And the RGEM and ICON follow with zip zero now too. This was an absolutely horrifying bad, bad, bad performance from the NAM, ICON, CMC/GEPS, RGEM, UKMET and the EURO/EPS. The GFS/GEFS, GFS-GraphCast and EURO-AIFS schooled them. Completely embarrassing 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Monday at 03:30 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:30 PM The crazy part is even southern Delaware and the delamarva might be in trouble if some of these trends continue. The heavy snow might be limited to extreme se va and ne nc. They've been in the bullseye for far longer than we were 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted Monday at 03:34 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:34 PM For what it's worth the mid Atlantic region clinging on to a little bit of hope as the nam came in further west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted Monday at 03:37 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:37 PM If icons right it’s gonna be a sunny day here Thursday highest snow totals now limited to Carolina coast/ the fish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted Monday at 03:40 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:40 PM 5 minutes ago, lee59 said: For what it's worth the mid Atlantic region clinging on to a little bit of hope as the nam came in further west That ULL looks so close to phasing on the NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted Monday at 03:51 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:51 PM I’m still not completely writing this off until 0z Wednesday at the latest. I have a hunch that will we see a shift back to the West with weaker confluence but just to note it’s not going to be anywhere close to that one day where all models showed feet. I’m basically taking Walt’s side on this one. If he’s still engaged then no reason why we can’t have some hope of a light to moderate snowfall 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted Monday at 03:55 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:55 PM GFS barely gets a dusting up to Delaware. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted Monday at 03:58 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:58 PM 6 minutes ago, allgame830 said: I’m still not completely writing this off until 0z Wednesday at the latest. I have a hunch that will we see a shift back to the West with weaker confluence but just to note it’s not going to be anywhere close to that one day where all models showed feet. I’m basically taking Walt’s side on this one. If he’s still engaged then no reason why we can’t have some hope of a light to moderate snowfall How did I figure @snowman19would throw a weenie. Basically you’re saying Walt is a weenie too! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted Monday at 03:59 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:59 PM I do believe that there's a likelihood that this comes back a bit. How much is the question. The models have done their typical fluctuations and in the end it is normal and typical for this kind of storm to come a little closer than the wide swing to the right indicated. WX/PT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted Monday at 04:03 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:03 PM Gfs has the highest snowfall area so small. This isn’t good for anyone outside the Carolina coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted Monday at 04:07 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:07 PM 14 minutes ago, allgame830 said: I’m still not completely writing this off until 0z Wednesday at the latest. I have a hunch that will we see a shift back to the West with weaker confluence but just to note it’s not going to be anywhere close to that one day where all models showed feet. I’m basically taking Walt’s side on this one. If he’s still engaged then no reason why we can’t have some hope of a light to moderate snowfall Some models have a little bit of interaction with the PV and southern stream as our storm passes well to the east, causing light snow to break out over the area. I can’t really see more than an inch or two out of this even in the best case scenario though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted Monday at 04:09 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:09 PM 4 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Gfs has the highest snowfall area so small. This isn’t good for anyone outside the Carolina coast Because the flow isn't amplifying up the coast which would bring moisture with it. The kicker to the west knocks out the western ridge and there's also confluence north of us. So the trough remains a strung out zonal mess that gets booted out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted Monday at 04:13 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:13 PM 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: The overall setup looked like something that may produce but most also said it was something that could easily fall apart mostly because of the unfavorable Pacific. And gee whiz... No one should be surprised we're left with more suppressed garbage. It has more to do with a negative five standard deviation AO than the pack. If we had a weaker AO and the same pack the storm would have gained latitude and we would have had a decent event. The fast pack would have hindered the epic slow moving bombs, however we would have had a good four to eight six to twelve event with the same pack and a week or AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted Monday at 04:16 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:16 PM 1 hour ago, TriPol said: I just hate the fact that nearly every single model showed this... and then they didn't. Agreed. At least January 2015 the nam and the euro showed us getting hammered however all the other models showed Eastern New England. So when it failed in our area it was really only two models that failed. Every single model including the AI at one point should it's getting hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted Monday at 04:20 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:20 PM We got the cold here and a bunch of small events but couldn't get the big one. Hopefully later in March torches! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted Monday at 04:21 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:21 PM 54 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Full on NAM cave job. And the RGEM and ICON follow with zip zero now too. This was an absolutely horrifying bad, bad, bad performance from the NAM, ICON, CMC/GEPS, RGEM, UKMET and the EURO/EPS. The GFS/GEFS, GFS-GraphCast and EURO-AIFS schooled them. Completely embarrassing EURO has never been the same model since being upgraded. Back in the day it would lock into an event 5 days out and never waver. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted Monday at 04:23 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:23 PM Another issue was the lack of a negative AO for the past event. This in addition to the AO being further north allowing the past storm to move west of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Monday at 04:26 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:26 PM 1 hour ago, North and West said: Can you reassign that day to Opening Day? . Maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Monday at 04:31 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:31 PM 14 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Agreed. At least January 2015 the nam and the euro showed us getting hammered however all the other models showed Eastern New England. So when it failed in our area it was really only two models that failed. Every single model including the AI at one point should it's getting hit. That was still worse because the euro didn't back off until the day of and was still considered the king at that point. Imagine if the models were in agreement tomorrow and then backed off Wednesday? Would be total mayhem 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted Monday at 04:32 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:32 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted Monday at 04:35 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:35 PM 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: That was still worse because the euro didn't back off until the day of and was still considered the king at that point. Imagine if the models were in agreement tomorrow and then backed off Wednesday? Would be total mayhem Yeah but at least there was a decent amount of doubt as all but two models showed Eastern New England getting the storm so It wasn't a total complete shock when it came in the last minute. Looking in retrospect we should have been going with all the other models as only two showed us in the bullseye. What made that one hard to swallow was the media and the national weather service going with the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Monday at 04:37 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:37 PM Just now, EastonSN+ said: Yeah but at least there was a decent amount of doubt as all but two models showed Eastern New England getting the storm so It wasn't a total complete shock when it came in the last minute. Looking in retrospect we should have been going with all the other models as only two showed us in the bullseye. What made that one hard to swallow was the media and the national weather service going with the euro. Yeah I was always skeptical because of the complicated setup and lack of model support. Plus the euro was making some ticks east the day before that people said was just noise 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted Monday at 04:41 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:41 PM 8 minutes ago, nycsnow said: One out of 2 perfect tracks isn't bad...although probably would prefer a little cold air 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted Monday at 04:45 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:45 PM Here's the 2.5 day trend of the NBM since Saturday at 12Z (every 12 hours), showing how the NBM can be very misleading in trending situations, due to its time-lagged nature. I think everyone here knew this storm was mostly toast by yesterday at 12Z, but the NBM was still showing 6"+ for the 95 corridor with a bit less NW and up to 9" at the NJ coast. And it just showed <3" for the 95 corridor at 12z today. I think it's a useful tool when models aren't trending one way or another, significantly, but has been useless for this event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted Monday at 04:45 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:45 PM 2 minutes ago, Northof78 said: One out of 2 perfect tracks isn't bad...although probably would prefer a little cold air Even with a cold air source that is inside the benchmark so Long Island coastal New Jersey and the City would likely be mostly rain. However could have been decent for inland areas although a fast mover. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted Monday at 04:52 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:52 PM On 2/14/2025 at 9:40 AM, RU848789 said: Obviously, the incredible consensus for a major to historic snowstorm from the 4 global Op models, as well as the unusually snowy ensemble means for these models, are fantastic to see, but we know there's no guarantees in this game. Which is why the AIFS has me at least a bit worried, as it's been pretty good on tracks this winter...let's hope the AIFS is just wrong and comes back to a better track and wetter solution than the trend we've seen over the last 24 hours... In hindsight, it looks like the Euro-AI model scored a significant modeling coup, as it never showed a major (8" or more - my definition) snowstorm for our area, unlike almost every other global model all of which showed at least a few runs with major snowfall. The Euro-AI had most runs in days 4-7 showing a minor to moderate hit with one run on Sat 12Z with significant (4-8", again, my definition) snowfall, but not major. Out of the rest of the models, the GFS was close to the Euro-AI, only showing one major snowfall run, also on 12Z Sat. The Euro, UK and CMC all had multiple major snowfall runs for our region in that timeframe (including some historic runs). So still a significant failure for the AIFS/GFS but an epic failure for the Euro/UK/CMC. IMO. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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