Discussion-OBS snow event sometime between 06z Thu 2/20-12z Fri 2/21?

[MJO812]

27 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@Allsnow @Rjay What’s the next date I need to buckle up for? I’ve been buckling and unbuckling so much since the end of November that my buckle strap broke, I need to order a new one so I’m ready….

You shouldn't be talking at all with your horrible predictions. 

[TJW014]

AO being -5 killed this.

[nycsnow]

18 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

AO being -5 killed this.

Everyone was saying how favorable everything was 

[Wannabehippie]

Just now, nycsnow said:

Everyone was saying how favorable everything was 

Too much blocking. Been the theme of the season.

[nycsnow]

It’s laughable how bad this is trending for the entire east coast 

 

Image

[nycsnow]

FWIW through 69 Nam is n/w and brings snow into jersey 

[jm1220]

14 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Everyone was saying how favorable everything was 

The overall setup looked like something that may produce but most also said it was something that could easily fall apart mostly because of the unfavorable Pacific. And gee whiz...

No one should be surprised we're left with more suppressed garbage.

[NYER72]

Locally, Nobody has taken snow off the table seemingly (Yet). Reading this forum we should be expecting the sun to be out!

[nycsnow]

1 minute ago, NYER72 said:

Locally, Nobody has taken snow off the table seemingly (Yet). Reading this forum we should be expecting the sun to be out!

Partly sunny looking likely

[nycsnow]

Even south of us the area of significant totals is getting smaller and smaller

Image

 

[nycsnow]

0z 

Image

 

vs 12z

Image

 

[MJO812]

42 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

AO being -5 killed this.

This is a great opportunity for a big snowstorm.  It's also rising but didn't work out. Maybe we might get 1 more shot.

[MJO812]

Very frustrating hobby

 

Kudos to the Euro AI for not showing anything significant .

 

Like I said in the past , models should only go out until 120 hours.

 

This is also my fault because I took off from work on Thuesday for the snowstorm. Sorry guys 

[LVblizzard]

Has there ever been a mid-range failure quite this massive by the models? Usually when there’s consensus on a big storm 5-6 days out, we get at least something, whether it’s a wintry mix to rain or just getting grazed with light snow. But going from a MECS to absolutely nothing in 2 days is crazy. I genuinely can’t think of another time this has happened.

[nycsnow]

Just now, LVblizzard said:

Has there ever been a mid-range failure quite this massive by the models? Usually when there’s consensus on a big storm 5-6 days out, we get at least something, whether it’s a wintry mix to rain or just getting grazed with light snow. But going from a MECS to absolutely nothing in 2 days is crazy. I genuinely can’t think of another time this has happened.

And everyone will still hump year it’s still trending s/e. For such an elite model epic fail. I think it might’ve trended legit 400 miles already and still going 

[coastalplainsnowman]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

I am certain of a period of light snow Thursday.. NAEFS support and soooo much room for development at 850MB off VA as the upper low slowly becomes neutral.in its end approach to PA  We're 4 days out.  

I am one to make an initial call... and stay with it.  WHAT IF THIS COMES BACK AND how does the NWS explain.

Once the cat is out of the barn so to speak, you stay with it, til it goes away, at least for decision makers. 

That I why the NWS is very conservative eve beyond 60 hours.  

Here in AMWX most are looking at models and wind shield wiping with every sweep and you can do that, with no impact except on the board. 

As much as the hobbyists on here can learn from guys like Walt for their technical knowledge, we (I include myself) can learn even more from them from the humble way in which they conduct themselves.  They class this place up.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Philly only has 50% of their normal snowfall this winter, I wonder if they should no longer be included in the Mid Atlantic? This has really been a below the Mason Dixon line winter.

Philly has it's own thread, The Mid Atlantic thread here is what the geographic Mid Atlantic on the east coats truly is. Maryland, Delaware, Virginia, Washington DC, you can also throw southernmost Jersey in there if you want since it is below the mason dixon line. 

On a separate note It's a pet peeve of mine when New York state is referred to as a MId Atlantic state, geographically it's idiotic, NY is further north than 3 of the 6 New England states, four if we include the tie with Vermont at 45° north.

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

Has there ever been a mid-range failure quite this massive by the models? Usually when there’s consensus on a big storm 5-6 days out, we get at least something, whether it’s a wintry mix to rain or just getting grazed with light snow. But going from a MECS to absolutely nothing in 2 days is crazy. I genuinely can’t think of another time this has happened.

This has to be worst Euro and EPS performance in years.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Philly has it's own thread, The Mid Atlantic thread here is what the geographic Mid Atlantic on the east coats truly is. Maryland, Delaware, Virginia, you can also throw southernmost Jersey in there if you want since it is below the mason dixon line. 

On a separate note It's a pet peeve of mine when New York state is referred to as a MId Atlantic state, geographically it's idiotic, NY is further north than 3 of the 6 New England states, four if we include the tie with Vermont at 45° north.

NYC is referred as the northern mid Atlantic. 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Philly has it's own thread, The Mid Atlantic thread here is what the geographic Mid Atlantic on the east coats truly is. Maryland, Delaware, Virginia, you can also throw southernmost Jersey in there if you want since it is below the mason dixon line. 

On a separate note It's a pet peeve of mine when New York state is referred to as a MId Atlantic state, geographically it's idiotic, NY is further north than 3 of the 6 New England states, four if we include the tie with Vermont at 45° north.

Definitely-- New York (city or state) isn't part of the Mid Atlantic and I wouldn't include the northern half of PA or northern half of NJ in it either.  Not sure what I would call it actually-- just the tristate area? CT can be grouped with New England.

 

[Northof78]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Very frustrating hobby

 

Kudos to the Euro AI for not showing anything significant .

 

Like I said in the past , models should only go out until 120 hours.

 

This is also my fault because I took off from work on Thuesday for the snowstorm. Sorry guys 

GFS did very well also, where it was always much flatter than other guidance and I dont think every showed a monster, maybe it had one run with a moderate storm. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

NYC is referred as the northern mid Atlantic. 

I get it but I think it's dumb. It's the northeast and really it's just semantics and doesn't matter either way. Like I said it's a pet peeve and an antagonistic term thrown around by New Englanders IMO, good natured ribbing but ribbing nonetheless.

[MJO812]

Just now, Northof78 said:

GFS did very well also, where it was always much flatter than other guidance and I dont think every showed a monster, maybe it had one run with a moderate storm. 

One run of a hecs on gfs and that's it . 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I get it but I think it's dumb. It's the northeast and really it's just semantics and doesn't matter either way. like I said it's a pet peeve and an antagonistic term thrown around by New Englanders IMO, good natured ribbing but ribbing nonetheless.

Mayne because of the lower snow totals compared to other NE states.

[JTA66]

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Very frustrating hobby

 

Kudos to the Euro AI for not showing anything significant .

 

Like I said in the past , models should only go out until 120 hours.

 

This is also my fault because I took off from work on Thuesday for the snowstorm. Sorry guys 

The problem isn't that models go out past 120 hours. It's that weenies keep taking them literally at that range.

We'll never improve modeling if we stop running them at longer leads and learn how to correct them for more accurate outcomes. If weenies keep getting excited about 240 hour MECS, that's on them.

[CentralNJSnowman]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

One run of a hecs on gfs and that's it . 

Even that run, showed the potential for a miss if it moved East at all.  It was like 40" in Eastern NJ and maybe 10"  in Western NJ from what I remember.

[TriPol]

I just hate the fact that nearly every single model showed this... and then they didn't.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Mayne because of the lower snow totals compared to other NE states.

Well you can't say that for 90% of the geographic state of NY. I suppose if you just look at NYC and LI maybe. Although the CT coastal and RI coatsal areas and even the Cape snowfall averages are on par with most of the north shore of LI. Albany NY and Boston are at the same latitude but Albany averages a foot more of snow per year and is also much colder because of inland location.

Actually the three snowiest cities in the United States, population above 100,000, are all in NY, Syracuse, Rochester and Buffalo. Lake effect related I get it but the Adirondack region which is more than 1/3 of the state does just fine in Winter.

 

[Feen]

GM guys,

 

The past few years every time we get a favorable pattern and the models show a big snowstorm, it has dissapointed every time. i really don't get how the models do this every time. If it shows rain a week from now, it literally verifies every time!

[LibertyBell]

15 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I get it but I think it's dumb. It's the northeast and really it's just semantics and doesn't matter either way. Like I said it's a pet peeve and an antagonistic term thrown around by New Englanders IMO, good natured ribbing but ribbing nonetheless.

they weren't so happy about it in 09-10

I'm sure you remember the snowicane in late February when NYC and you both got over 20 inches and they got zilch lol.