jm1220 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 12 minutes ago, Irish said: Eh, the radar just needs to fill in a bit more. That's all. When even Norfolk gets blanked, you know it's bad. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Euro crushes NW Africa. Paste bomb for them 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 14 minutes ago, psv88 said: Euro crushes NW Africa. Paste bomb for them Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 30 minutes ago, psv88 said: Euro crushes NW Africa. Paste bomb for them Maybe it'll just get pinned at the south pole. Maybe some flurries to the Falkland Islands. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Just wanted to memorialize the complete modeling failure for the Euro, GFS, CMC and UK models from 12Z Saturday to 0Z Monday, from major/historic snowstorm to essentially nada (need 2 posts for this due to size issues). I don't recall a faster implosion in the last 15-20 years, as the axis of heaviest snowfall shifted 150-250 miles over 36 hours in this case. Even Jan-2015 went from a forecast of 18-24" for most in NJ (and there was not model consensus on the high snowfall forecasts 12-24 hours before that event) to several inches for most of NJ, which is at least not a complete miss (and yes I know this one isn't 100% over yet, but it's close). March 2001 might be worse at least for me, as we had a forecast of 1-2 feet and got maybe 1" in CNJ. The only saving grace, kind of, is that it happened between 4 and 3 days out, which is a little less painful to me than having an actual forecast for a big storm and getting shut out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 2nd post... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Only thing I can say positive is my snow cover survived the rain lol. Still solid 2-3 inches 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 3 minutes ago, rgwp96 said: Only thing I can say positive is my snow cover survived the rain lol. Still solid 2-3 inches We still have 1/2" to 1" on our lawn. That 0.6" of QPF that squeezed into 1.5" of snow/sleet/slush last Saturday and became a 1.5" dense concrete ice pack has had staying power, moreso than the 3.1" of snow that fell on top of it this past week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Most of the mid Atlantic forum getting shut out of this now. Everyone said they were a lock no matter what. Nothings a lock. Time to move on. 29.6 YTD doubt I get to 50 which is my seasonal norm but despite the lack of the big one the winters still a C+. At least it's looked and felt like winter. Much better than the last two sorry excuses for winter. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Nothing beats the March 2001 calamity, but I have to admit this one is going to sting for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 17 Author Share Posted February 17 No change in original thread thinking from P1: I see the "put it to bed" commentary... so you need not check back. Upper air system looks too strong with a closed low developing to have this system miss us. I've added the BOM and WPC ensemble guidances. I'm still in for 2-6" of powder from 0.1 to 0.4 liquid northwest to southeast across the NYC subforum. It's possible that I'm wrong but pattern recognition of the unfolding eastward translation and intensification of the modeled low pressure system aloft argues for maintaining consideration of a snow event, even if the primary goes out a little far. There could be some sort of inverted trough back to the coming upper low. BOM may come down in the next cycle or two due to missing some of the 06z/17 guidance but very hard for me to see a miss with the projected closed 5H low across PA-NJ. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 hour ago, Yanksfan said: Nothing beats the March 2001 calamity, but I have to admit this one is going to sting for a while. Who are you and why are you using my name? 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNJSnowman Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Just wanted to call out that if this does end up in the 2-6 inch range that wdrag is suggesting, then this is going to be an epically good forecasting job by him. He didn't get sucked in when all models were showing 12-36 inches, and he hasn't moved his forecast now that they're all showing the storm completely missing us. I'm not sure there's ANYONE else who falls into both of those groups. If he's right, it would also suggest to me that there's a long way to go in improving the models, and that maybe deterministic, physics-based models which try to forecast what WILL happen instead of a range of probabilities just aren't the right approach for medium-range forecasting. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 There are no other storms lol unless you mean the tropical storm next week on gfs. Bring on 60s this winter was a huge failure It was cold, so that was a nice change. 🧊. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Gfs isn't even fully out yet and we aren't going to waste a negative ao at negative 5 and a positive PNA. Something will pop for us.Table it until Thanksgiving. It’s time for Mets baseball. . 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Looks like it might be sunny on Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Looks like it might be sunny on Thursday . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Meanwhile, from the New York Post, 10 minutes ago: "Biggest snowstorm this season likely as nor’easter set to pummeled Northeast this week" The article itself equivocates a bit, but that headline does not. And "pummeled" - past tense - is in the actual headline, not a typo by me. https://nypost.com/2025/02/17/us-news/could-northeast-get-pummeled-by-noreaster-this-week/?utm_campaign=nypost&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 20 minutes ago, North and West said: Table it until Thanksgiving. It’s time for Mets baseball. . Can't be the only one expecting big things from this group this year but that's better saved for banter threads anyhow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 4 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said: Meanwhile, from the New York Post, 10 minutes ago: "Biggest snowstorm this season likely as nor’easter set to pummeled Northeast this week" The article itself equivocates a bit, but that headline does not. And "pummeled" - past tense - is in the actual headline, not a typo by me. https://nypost.com/2025/02/17/us-news/could-northeast-get-pummeled-by-noreaster-this-week/?utm_campaign=nypost&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social LOL I saw that yesterday ''Buckle-up'' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 7 hours ago, jm1220 said: When even Norfolk gets blanked, you know it's bad. I dont even care if they get 100 inches, just get this crazy wind out of here and make it warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 hour ago, wdrag said: No change in original thread thinking from P1: I see the "put it to bed" commentary... so you need not check back. Upper air system looks too strong with a closed low developing to have this system miss us. I've added the BOM and WPC ensemble guidances. I'm still in for 2-6" of powder from 0.1 to 0.4 liquid northwest to southeast across the NYC subforum. It's possible that I'm wrong but pattern recognition of the unfolding eastward translation and intensification of the modeled low pressure system aloft argues for maintaining consideration of a snow event, even if the primary goes out a little far. There could be some sort of inverted trough back to the coming upper low. BOM may come down in the next cycle or two due to missing some of the 06z/17 guidance but very hard for me to see a miss with the projected closed 5H low across PA-NJ. Interesting how the top map has us for 30% chance of 1 inch of snow and the bottom map says it's going to be 4.0-4.4 inches of snow. I'd bet a significant amount that Central Park will NOT get 4 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 3 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Most of the mid Atlantic forum getting shut out of this now. Everyone said they were a lock no matter what. Nothings a lock. Time to move on. 29.6 YTD doubt I get to 50 which is my seasonal norm but despite the lack of the big one the winters still a C+. At least it's looked and felt like winter. Much better than the last two sorry excuses for winter. Philly only has 50% of their normal snowfall this winter, I wonder if they should no longer be included in the Mid Atlantic? This has really been a below the Mason Dixon line winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 6 hours ago, RU848789 said: Just wanted to memorialize the complete modeling failure for the Euro, GFS, CMC and UK models from 12Z Saturday to 0Z Monday, from major/historic snowstorm to essentially nada (need 2 posts for this due to size issues). I don't recall a faster implosion in the last 15-20 years, as the axis of heaviest snowfall shifted 150-250 miles over 36 hours in this case. Even Jan-2015 went from a forecast of 18-24" for most in NJ (and there was not model consensus on the high snowfall forecasts 12-24 hours before that event) to several inches for most of NJ, which is at least not a complete miss (and yes I know this one isn't 100% over yet, but it's close). March 2001 might be worse at least for me, as we had a forecast of 1-2 feet and got maybe 1" in CNJ. The only saving grace, kind of, is that it happened between 4 and 3 days out, which is a little less painful to me than having an actual forecast for a big storm and getting shut out. One more bust that no one really talks about is the January 2008 Heavy Snow Warning bust.... remember that one lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 46 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Who are you and why are you using my name? Sorry I am not an imposter or trying to offend you but when you changed your display name for whatever reason, I assumed the name would be available once again. Being a diehard Yankees fan all my life, and trying to get out of this damn snow drought for the past 3 years that we’ve been in I figured that could change our luck. All I succeeded in doing was making our big storm this week go OTS and piss you off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: One more bust that no one really talks about is the January 2008 Heavy Snow Warning bust.... remember that one lol? Yep-zero cold air-never had a chance-was in the mid 40's or something 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowguy66 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Walt may be correct and if so, then that is forecasting and not model hugging. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 17 Author Share Posted February 17 29 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Interesting how the top map has us for 30% chance of 1 inch of snow and the bottom map says it's going to be 4.0-4.4 inches of snow. I'd bet a significant amount that Central Park will NOT get 4 inches of snow. The top map if you read the ending time is 7AM Thursday, the next one should say 24 hours ending 7AM Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 @Allsnow @Rjay What’s the next date I need to buckle up for? I’ve been buckling and unbuckling so much since the end of November that my buckle strap broke, I need to order a new one so I’m ready…. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 17 Author Share Posted February 17 1 minute ago, Snowguy66 said: Walt may be correct and if so, then that is forecasting and not model hugging . I am certain of a period of light snow Thursday.. NAEFS support and soooo much room for development at 850MB off VA as the upper low slowly becomes neutral.in its end approach to PA We're 4 days out. I am one to make an initial call... and stay with it. WHAT IF THIS COMES BACK AND how does the NWS explain. Once the cat is out of the barn so to speak, you stay with it, til it goes away, at least for decision makers. That I why the NWS is very conservative eve beyond 60 hours. Here in AMWX most are looking at models and wind shield wiping with every sweep and you can do that, with no impact except on the board. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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