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Discussion-OBS snow event sometime between 06z Thu 2/20-12z Fri 2/21?


wdrag
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11 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

What gives me solace is my friends and family are all just thrilled with the lack of snow.No one likes it, not even my kids who are 22 and 27 now. All are happy if it never snows again. Even the dogs hate it, expecting me to shovel them a path to do their business....

It cost me $90 every time they plow my driveway when it's over 3 inches. I look at saving the $90 as compensation for missing the upcoming storm.

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1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

It cost me $90 every time they plow my driveway when it's over 3 inches. I look at saving the $90 as compensation for missing the upcoming storm.

Our neighborhood drunk will do it for 25 bucks if you give him the snowblower. Although in Jan 2016 he demanded a little more.....

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3 hours ago, RU848789 said:

Walt et al - wondering what you think of the latest WPC map on likelihood of achieving warning level snowfall in the next 4 days (30-50% for CNJ/NYC/LI).  I wouldn't think this would be so high, but iirc, WPC goes off the NBM and the NBM at 13Z is way more bullish than I would imagine, even considering it's time lagged (but I can't imagine it's still including very snowy outcomes from 12Z yesterday, can you?). 

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snowfall_acc-imp.us_ma.png

I stay with 2-6 for the NYC subforum... trends are down but not done and could return... details tbd once the upper low forms in the midwest-great lakes.  Steady is best despite the ups and downs of being a hitter... you cant get too high nor too low and  yet provide a good service for the customer. Yes, it may miss but I think the snow likely Thu was and is still a good call for NYC.  Sweat it out..

Over and over again,  no one promised a big hitter... just the more likely period of accumulative powdery snow.   

I may be offline for 12 hours due to baby sitting and or power loss.

Have a good night all, if you still have power. 

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10 minutes ago, psv88 said:

People still tracking this?

Sure am.  Fully expect a coastal scraper to materialize.  Solid 2-4 NYC, 3-6 Long Island, Coastal NJ 2-6 from Asbury to IBSP.  4-8 from IBSP to ACY, 6-10 from ACY to Cape May.

 

Could see more, could see less.  Always worth tracking something that actually exists to track. 

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6 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

Yup some of us in southern areas have a very legitimate chance for warning-level snow. Wouldn't seem like it though because this sub has bipolar disorder 

Yeah the midatlantic forum is the best at analysis but maybe that’s because they’ve been getting the goods this winter lol. New England forum is like the Wild West, probably because they’re still waiting for a big one also. But here, we’ve been wedged in between some decent snow to our north and snow to our south. But I could see yesterday being our last snow of the season. Cold looks to break down quickly in late Feb, and going into March, we would need that cold to help us out 

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1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

I can only imagine what the weather boards would've looked like in the 70s and 80s, lol.  NYC gets a 12" snowstorm about every 4.2 years (37 in 155 years at CPK), but had 13 such storms in the last 30 years, which is one every 2.3 years, so we've been spoiled in the age of the internet.  Welcome to climo, as it's barely been 4 years since the last one in 2021.  There were 4 in the 70s/80s or 1 every 5 years, which is probably why it seemed they were so rare when I was growing up.  

I lived in those days and the answer is that it was depressing.

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NAM was still a pretty good hit but not as good as the 18z run. It's probably trending towards the other models, but doesn't mean it's going to be a complete miss. Hopefully we will at least get brushed with a light event. I know some have given up, but I would at least give it until tomorrow night. Model skill isn't so great that we should be giving up 3 days before an event with the models showing a near miss. 

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