MorristownWx Posted Sunday at 09:56 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:56 PM 16 minutes ago, TJW014 said: These big shifts just go to show the models have no clue wtf is going on Not major shifts at all. Mostly noise from icon. NAM is at 84. The consensus, at least for right now is pretty clear. Let’s not discount how good the model agreement is 4 days out. GFS will be another miss. ICON has been most erratic of all models. Again, we have pretty strong agreement on the models. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted Sunday at 09:56 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:56 PM Gfs looks like crap 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Sunday at 10:01 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:01 PM Well you tried 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Sunday at 10:08 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:08 PM 11 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Gfs looks like crap Not really. Good position. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted Sunday at 10:12 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:12 PM 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Not really. Good position. It Seemed the GFS and Icon a slight improvement 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted Sunday at 10:12 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:12 PM 9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Well you tried Cool. Another tooth pull for maybe an inch or two scraper. T-storms on New Years Eve and drenching rain on days like today always a sure bet though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Sunday at 10:13 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:13 PM It's the confluence that is ruining everything. Ease that and bam. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted Sunday at 10:13 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:13 PM 13 minutes ago, MorristownWx said: Not major shifts at all. Mostly noise from icon. NAM is at 84. The consensus, at least for right now is pretty clear. Let’s not discount how good the model agreement is 4 days out. GFS will be another miss. ICON has been most erratic of all models. Again, we have pretty strong agreement on the models. If that's "noise" I'll take another dose of it at 0Z. That's a pretty big ~50 mile shift in the snow shield, not a minor tick NW. Doesn't mean it's right or that it's a great model, but at least acknowledge what actually occurred. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Sunday at 10:15 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:15 PM The NAO isn't even deeply negative to squash this. The AO is but rising. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted Sunday at 10:20 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:20 PM 2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: That's what you say when the model isn't showing what you want it to show JB is sorta right, PSU echoed this in the MA forum that even if you looked at the CIPS analogs, many show the 500 setup from like Chicago to the Delmarva being one where we had storms that were so far west the coast changed over. Its likely just a case here thats an extremely rare circumstance where a couple of things being slightly off are leading to an atypical result given the setup. Or the NAM is gonna pull another January 2016 on us... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted Sunday at 10:22 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:22 PM Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 153 PM EST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 12Z Wed Feb 19 2025 - 12Z Sun Feb 23 2025 ...Intense Arctic Blast for the Central to Eastern U.S. next week with an impactful South-Central U.S. to Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm... 19Z Update: The main feature of interest continues to be the developing low pressure system across the Southeast U.S. and then reaching the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday into early Thursday. Upon review of the 12Z model guidance suite, it is apparent that the surface low is trending a little more south as it exits the Outer Banks of NC and moving a little faster, taking more of a ENE track instead of a NE track up the coast. There has also been a slight trend in this direction as well with the ensemble low clusters over the past 24-48 hours of the ECENS/GEFS. This will have implications on the northern extent of the accumulating snows with this event, particularly across the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. The latest 12Z model trends suggest less snow for those areas, and the axis of greatest snow across southern Virginia into the Delmarva, and the axis of any mixed precipitation farther to the south across North Carolina as well. It is important to note that these types of model trends can be temporary, and could possibly trend back to the north in future model runs and also once the higher resolution guidance begins to capture this event going into the short range forecast period. Otherwise the forecast elsewhere remains in good continuity with decent overall model agreement for most areas, with ensemble means increased to about 40% by next Sunday. The previous forecast discussion is appended below for reference. /Hamrick -------------------- 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted Sunday at 10:23 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:23 PM We missed the warm front here in the Lehigh Valley and Poconos and temperatures are hovering 37 with the Arctic front about to move in, certainly raises the questions for more of a flash freeze up overnight than originally thought 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MorristownWx Posted Sunday at 10:28 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:28 PM 16 minutes ago, RU848789 said: If that's "noise" I'll take another dose of it at 0Z. That's a pretty big ~50 mile shift in the snow shield, not a minor tick NW. Doesn't mean it's right or that it's a great model, but at least acknowledge what actually occurred. Calling it noise in relation to all other guidance. As you said, it’s not a top-tier model and has been super erratic so without support from any other model, it’s noise as it relates to the bigger picture. we have about as good of model consensus as we could ask for 4 days out all things considering 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Sunday at 10:29 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:29 PM Can the models just go up to 5 days and that's it ? They do a terrible job after that. Usually when all the models agree a storm happens but I would have never thought this was going to happen. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Sunday at 10:32 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:32 PM Upper levels don't look bad on the gefs. This is for the taking. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted Sunday at 10:34 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:34 PM 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Can the models just go up to 5 days and that's it ? They do a terrible job after that. Usually when all the models agree a storm happens but I would have never thought this was going to happen. But a storm still is happening. Just not the way or in the same place as once modeled. Still useful for advanced signaling, even if not accurate. But.... heartbreak will be real quite often. At least the sub forum is acclimated to the pain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MorristownWx Posted Sunday at 10:35 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:35 PM 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Upper levels don't look bad on the gefs. This is for the taking. All how you look at it. 1-3 maybe even 2-4 still possible for nyc and east with higher amount as you head east. Best case scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted Sunday at 10:36 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:36 PM 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Upper levels don't look bad on the gefs. This is for the taking. This is the surface map not upper levels. Don’t see this coming up the coast unless there is a late capture like Boxing Day or Jan 2022. Similar storms came up coast from florida and needed to get pulled back in. Really impossible to know if that can happen here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted Sunday at 10:39 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:39 PM 3 minutes ago, MorristownWx said: All how you look at it. 1-3 maybe even 2-4 still possible for nyc and east with higher amount as you head east. Best case scenario Most probable at this time, yes, best case, no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted Sunday at 10:40 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:40 PM Little bit n/w from 12z Image 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Sunday at 10:40 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:40 PM 4 minutes ago, mikem81 said: This is the surface map not upper levels. Don’t see this coming up the coast unless there is a late capture like Boxing Day or Jan 2022. Similar storms came up coast from florida and needed to get pulled back in. Really impossible to know if that can happen here I know what it is. Let's give it to Tuesday and see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Sunday at 10:46 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:46 PM 33 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Cool. Another tooth pull for maybe an inch or two scraper. T-storms on New Years Eve and drenching rain on days like today always a sure bet though. hail here now on the south shore, this reminds me of New Years Eve but without thunder and lightning, just hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted Sunday at 10:48 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:48 PM 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: hail here now on the south shore, this reminds me of New Years Eve but without thunder and lightning, just hail. Wild squall just came through down here as well. Easy 55-60mph gust and torrential rain. Short lived. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted Sunday at 10:50 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:50 PM 20 minutes ago, MorristownWx said: Calling it noise in relation to all other guidance. As you said, it’s not a top-tier model and has been super erratic so without support from any other model, it’s noise as it relates to the bigger picture. we have about as good of model consensus as we could ask for 4 days out all things considering Exactly...and you don't want to be clinging to the Icon while the other models are horrific 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted Sunday at 10:53 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:53 PM What happened to we don’t wanna be in the bullseye this far out. Keep the faith. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted Sunday at 10:56 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:56 PM Gfs brings a tropical storm up here in 9 days haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted Sunday at 10:57 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:57 PM What's funny is the GFS was the only model that did not fall for the big solution and has been the most consistent compared to the other models. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYER72 Posted Sunday at 10:57 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:57 PM Just now, nycsnow said: Gfs brings a tropical storm up here in 9 days haha we'll be bulls eye front and center for that one LOL 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted Sunday at 10:58 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:58 PM 1 minute ago, NYER72 said: we'll be bulls eye front and center for that one LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted Sunday at 11:01 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:01 PM 17 minutes ago, dseagull said: Wild squall just came through down here as well. Easy 55-60mph gust and torrential rain. Short lived. Getting it now winds are insane 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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