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Discussion-OBS snow event sometime between 06z Thu 2/20-12z Fri 2/21?


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  On 2/16/2025 at 5:32 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

the upper air pattern absolutely supported a large storm. that's what's so brutal about it. the "background state" stuff is bordering on pseudoscience. nobody can even truly explain what they mean when they say it

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100 percent wrong, pattern always supported a southern slider, this was never a threat

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  On 2/16/2025 at 8:27 PM, WestBabylonWeather said:

The Joe bastardi accuweather blogs and endless snow hype is what brought me into this game in like 1999 or 2000

 

those old accuweather blogs were pretty cool 

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Yes thats the thing, we can criticize his hype of snow but also recognize that he inspired many millions of people to get interested in weather

 

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  On 2/16/2025 at 8:06 PM, North and West said:


I don’t really follow him, but don’t you think it’s the exact same mentality as warm mongerers here, or pundits continuously calling for a bull or bear market, or bookies making odds for a sporting event? People are just taking their shots hoping to be right to then enjoy the accolades.

My $0.02


.

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It's worse because he sells himself as a professional with a degree, so he must know the secret sauce.

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  On 2/16/2025 at 8:29 PM, LibertyBell said:

Yes thats the thing, we can criticize his hype of snow but also recognize that he inspired many millions of people to get interested in weather

 

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It was all anyone had.....the only other thing I remember was Weathermatrix, who also worked for Accu....they started a forum in 2007, but the region was far too expansive, though Anthony's presence was obvious even there....

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  On 2/16/2025 at 8:29 PM, qg_omega said:

100 percent wrong, pattern always supported a southern slider, this was never a threat

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I disagree. Pattern definitely supported a threat but the indices don't mean as much as they used to. The northern stream is the killer and it has been for years now.

A strongly negative -AO and MJO phase 8 would've guaranteed a storm in the past. 

However I'm tired of all the hype and pretty maps everyone posts. Anyone can hype up a day 10 threat, but where's the results. Stick with 3 days or less and you won't be disappointed. 

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  On 2/16/2025 at 8:19 PM, LibertyBell said:

and with the current storm we are seeing the -5 AO cause  a cutter

 

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This is the block right now see how far north and east it is. If this were further west and further south we would have had snow.

image.thumb.png.fe59735d38897e8f45e2d884342c4f70.png

This will be the block Thursday. See how far south it is and how strong it is. If this were a little weaker or a little further north we would have had snow. You could see the kicker storm on this depiction too. So yes it's too strong and negative 5 and too far south. Weaker or little North with this strength and we would have snowed.

image.thumb.png.c05531296865ddf71a962b34491f19ed.png

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  On 2/16/2025 at 8:31 PM, weatherpruf said:

It's worse because he sells himself as a professional with a degree, so he must know the secret sauce.

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I used to watch him on weather world at psu in the 90s. He is an actual meteorologist.  But he always goes cold and snowy and for a while thats what we had so he was right more than he was wrong. Once he left accuwx and went to wxbell and Twitter that was it though

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  On 2/16/2025 at 8:36 PM, EastonSN+ said:

This is the block right now see how far north and east it is. If this were further west and further south we would have had snow.

image.thumb.png.fe59735d38897e8f45e2d884342c4f70.png

This will be the block Thursday. See how far south it is and how strong it is. If this were a little weaker or a little further north we would have had snow. You could see the kicker storm on this depiction too. So yes it's too strong and negative 5 and too far south. Weaker or little North with this strength and we would have snowed.

image.thumb.png.c05531296865ddf71a962b34491f19ed.png

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It seems like a thread the needle pattern and it's either too far north or too far south. In a season like, say, 2014-15, we would have had snow across a wider range of solutions.

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  On 2/16/2025 at 8:37 PM, weatherpruf said:

Too many years of steroid use would be my guess, though he always claimed he was all natural....but so did Lance Armstrong and most of the former GDR swimming teams......

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This is funny in a few ways.  "JB's predictions for snow were typically 25% higher than average, but this was found to be due to PEDs."

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