mikem81 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 any thoughts as to if the double low/convectiom offshore is messing the LP track? We’ve had that in past storms with the track from Savannah up the coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nightknights Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Should be interesting when all the melting glaciers change the flow of the Atlantic. Read where gulfstream will be eliminated 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Heard aifs went east as well??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, nycsnow said: Heard aifs went east as well??? yes, significantly so with just minor snowfall from 95 east to the coast... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Jesus this thread… it’s small changes in input data upstream leading to amplified outcomes here. Maybe it phases in time, maybe not…but glacial melt water effecting future storms? Maybe that’s better left for another thread… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 hour ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Looking at the euro won’t take much for Long Island to get a warning level event Exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 JB is also saying how H5 looks good on the Euro but the surface isn't and should be further west. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: JB is also saying how H5 looks good on the Euro but the surface isn't and should be further west. That's what you say when the model isn't showing what you want it to show 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, MJO812 said: JB is also saying how H5 looks good on the Euro but the surface isn't and should be further west. Watch Bernie Rayno’s new video as it explains why this storm just isn’t going to come up the coast. Damn kicker pushing the ULL to form too far east and keep trough positively tilted. Not sure what JB is referring to as the ULL position seems to be obviously east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Can I call it? Storm Cancel. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Jesus this thread… it’s small changes in input data upstream leading to amplified outcomes here. Maybe it phases in time, maybe not…but glacial melt water effecting future storms? Maybe that’s better left for another thread…The asteroid is coming. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Can I call it? Storm Cancel.According to many forums members you can’t call it over until the storm passes….otherwise there’s still a 0.13% chance! . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, jdj5211 said: According to many forums members you can’t call it over until the storm passes….otherwise there’s still a 0.13% chance! . Need to nowcast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 The guy from EPAWA was saying that it’s literally 3 to 4 hour window of energy that’s lagging behind preventing the phase. He isn’t throwing in the towel until the storm comes on shore tomorrow. . 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: JB is also saying how H5 looks good on the Euro but the surface isn't and should be further west. When it comes to forecasting. I don't know anything, and even I know that JB saying that there's a better chance of it snowing than we think, is right on brand. If I ever saw someone report here that JB is calling for less snow than current consensus, I would immediately rush out to buy a warm coat, because it would mean that hell has frozen over. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 14 minutes ago, TriPol said: Can I call it? Storm Cancel. Sure, call it. Im not even sure what that means. Does it change anything when one "calls it?" You know damn well you'll continue looking at the models and/or checking this thread until Tuesday at the earliest. Bunch of addicts looking for a fix, myself included. But sure. "Call it" 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krs4Lfe Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 9 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said: When it comes to forecasting. I don't know anything, and even I know that JB saying that there's a better chance of it snowing than we think, is right on brand. If I ever saw someone report here that JB is calling for less snow than current consensus, I would immediately rush out to buy a warm coat, because it would mean that hell has frozen over. Yeah JB gets it disastrously wrong. Good metrologies but I feel like something has changed with him over the past 5 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, Krs4Lfe said: Yeah JB gets it disastrously wrong. Good metrologies but I feel like something has changed with him over the past 5 years He’s all about clicks these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Bernie Ray just came out and said upper low further east than last few days, and will be MA storm, maybe a few inches here...the 28th 1-3"/nuisance storm of the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Bernie rayno on twitter throwing out amounts trying to be the first to call it. Hope it blows up in his face Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, Northof78 said: Bernie Ray just came out and said upper low further east than last few days, and will be MA storm, maybe a few inches here...the 28th 1-3"/nuisance storm of the season He’s a clown, can very much be right but nothing is sampled lol it can be 0 or double digits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Yeah JB gets it disastrously wrong. Good metrologies but I feel like something has changed with him over the past 5 years I don’t really follow him, but don’t you think it’s the exact same mentality as warm mongerers here, or pundits continuously calling for a bull or bear market, or bookies making odds for a sporting event? People are just taking their shots hoping to be right to then enjoy the accolades.My $0.02. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nightknights Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 44 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said: Jesus this thread… it’s small changes in input data upstream leading to amplified outcomes here. Maybe it phases in time, maybe not…but glacial melt water effecting future storms? Maybe that’s better left for another thread… So NOAA research is irrelevant on a weather forum pretty much connected with NOAA. Never said anything about this storm forresthill 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/12/2025 at 6:08 PM, EastonSN+ said: I am usually positive thinking however not feeling good on 2/19 to 2/22. The confluence is strong. I was hoping I would be incorrect. Maybe I still will but. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 If the AO was a -3 instead of a - 5 we would have seen at least some decent snow. The strength of the AO would not let the storm gain latitude. Because of this we are waiting for a phase to bring this from the coast in with the kicker out west it wasn't going to happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 5 minutes ago, nycsnow said: He’s a clown, can very much be right but nothing is sampled lol it can be 0 or double digits I have a lot of respect for the man, as he uses conventional wisdom/meteorology more than most these days. He also admits when he blows a forecast. However... He is puting all his eggs in one basket with the kicker and the modeled positive, almost neutral tilt of the low. My feeling is that he is reminding himself of the seasonal trends we have witnessed thus far, and weighing his forecast heavily on this. Not necessarily a bad idea. I'd like to see where we stand tonight and tomorrow morning. Not sure why the rush to put out "first calls" when you have established viewership. Seems like poorly managed risk/reward. But what do I know... im just a boat captain. Very interesting evolution to follow, regardless of outcome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 14 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said: Yeah JB gets it disastrously wrong. Good metrologies but I feel like something has changed with him over the past 5 years Hmmm what could it be 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: If the AO was a -3 instead of a - 5 we would have seen at least some decent snow. The strength of the AO would not let the storm gain latitude. Because of this we are waiting for a phase to bring this from the coast in with the kicker out west it wasn't going to happen. and with the current storm we are seeing the -5 AO cause a cutter 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 9 minutes ago, nightknights said: So NOAA research is irrelevant on a weather forum pretty much connected with NOAA. Never said anything about this storm forresthill This thread's title is "Discussion-OBS snow event sometime between 18z Wed 2/19-12z Fri 2/21?." The Gulf Stream's elimination, if it does in fact occur, most likely won't be observable by this Friday. I think that's all he's saying. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 10 minutes ago, nightknights said: So NOAA research is irrelevant on a weather forum pretty much connected with NOAA. Never said anything about this storm forresthill Please don't talk about science on a weather forum 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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