MJO812 Posted Sunday at 05:31 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:31 PM 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted Sunday at 05:31 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:31 PM i know people unrightfully bash models, but I'm going to. absolutely appalling performance from D5. should not happenThis goes out to all who bow on the alter of the technology. The models suck just as much as they did 10 years ago. . 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted Sunday at 05:32 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:32 PM Just now, MJO812 said: Not as bad as I thought, but definitely a step back from 06Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted Sunday at 05:32 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:32 PM 4 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said: This is what happens when we do modelology instead of meteorology. we can post all these pretty maps of good pattern depictions and of storms that deep down we know won’t come to fruition because the base state of the winter and the upper level patterns and do not support it, but we all want clicks and we all want to look at something that looks nice while abandoning all reasoning about while this winter has performed poorly at least in the snow department for our sub forum. and why it will continue to do so because the background state has not changed and we are looking at quick pattern regression in late month and early March after the storm threat passes. Pretty model depictions and depictions of storms aren’t gonna cut it. That is modelology not meteorology and that’s all we’ve been doing since 2022 You joined in 2024. Maybe leave 2022 and 2023 with the previous sock. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted Sunday at 05:32 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:32 PM It’s over. Enjoy the long weekend, hopefully we start seeing models hop on some warmer weather. Only saving grace is we still have til Tom until it’s all sampled 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Sunday at 05:32 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:32 PM 4 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said: This is what happens when we do modelology instead of meteorology. we can post all these pretty maps of good pattern depictions and of storms that deep down we know won’t come to fruition because the base state of the winter and the upper level patterns and do not support it, but we all want clicks and we all want to look at something that looks nice while abandoning all reasoning about while this winter has performed poorly at least in the snow department for our sub forum. and why it will continue to do so because the background state has not changed and we are looking at quick pattern regression in late month and early March after the storm threat passes. Pretty model depictions and depictions of storms aren’t gonna cut it. That is modelology not meteorology and that’s all we’ve been doing since 2022 the upper air pattern absolutely supported a large storm. that's what's so brutal about it. the "background state" stuff is bordering on pseudoscience. nobody can even truly explain what they mean when they say it 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Sunday at 05:32 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:32 PM 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: 0/5 Euro awful It's a couple inches 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted Sunday at 05:34 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:34 PM 10 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Maybe someone more intricately involved in NWP can chime in, but my perception from my NWS career (started in Feb 09 at OKX) and my hobbyist phase going back years before that, is that modeling has grown less stable at closer in lead times on the most important details for system evolution. I think that global modeling systems are better than they've ever been at nailing the large scale pattern at long leads, but these large swings inside D5 feel more common to me than back in the 2000s and 2010s. My theory is that it's partially related to faster flow due to CC and partially related to ever increasing resolution (high resolution garbage in still = high resolution garbage out; ie. errors in those high res details, such as convective parameterizations, reach many of the members which all have the same physics and then amplify). I have no idea if I'm right on this, but I'm def interested in hearing from others better versed than me. Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro using Tapatalk Interesting points. Wouldn't that be where hindcast analysis for some past storms comparing the "old" models to the "new and improved" ones would be helpful and possibly indicate that for major storms, where stability is pretty damn important, perhaps some work needs to be done to improve the models? Who gives a crap about predicting the heights at 500 mbar and SLP on sunny days (which is what most of the verification scores are based on, iirc; although I do know more detailed storm verification scores are kept on hurricanes)? I don't care if it's 73F vs. 80F for a high, but I do care about whether I'm going to get 1" or 6" of snow in 2-3 days. I do also wonder how much the AI models have been "trained" on datasets like what we've seen over the past few days (although there probably aren't too many of them). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted Sunday at 05:36 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:36 PM Sarcasm aside, the energy for Thursday is still 3000 miles away, not even ashore in the PNW yet. No balloon sampling data from that to inject into the models. We should see some of that data coming in with the 12z or 18z runs tomorrow. We have a long way to go. Not gonna know where this goes until about 48 hours lead time. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted Sunday at 05:40 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:40 PM I think as of now, models are relying too much on the -AO and interpreting that as too much suppression. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted Sunday at 05:41 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:41 PM 100 mile adjustment in next 3 days would be a foot for many here. Definitely not over. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted Sunday at 05:41 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:41 PM 7 minutes ago, nycsnow said: It’s over. Enjoy the long weekend, hopefully we start seeing models hop on some warmer weather. Only saving grace is we still have til Tom until it’s all sampled Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl harbor?!?! Joking aside, you kind of ruined your argument within your own statement. Sampling isn't nearly done. No cliff jumping yet. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted Sunday at 05:44 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:44 PM 3 minutes ago, wxman said: 100 mile adjustment in next 3 days would be a foot for many here. Definitely not over. Well within the margin of error this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted Sunday at 05:46 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:46 PM 13 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 50 mile adjustment north and west = MECS in NYC metro --- lets see how many EPS members are 50 miles north and west of the OP 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted Sunday at 05:48 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:48 PM 13 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: It's a couple inches And a little more than that with good snow ratios. I'd gladly take a few inches of powdery snow like Euro shows, but of course it'll be awhile before we figure out how close this is gonna be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted Sunday at 05:54 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:54 PM The Euro upper levels were an improvement. Better heights out west, slower kicker, and a more consolidated ULL. Yet the storm shifts east??? It just refuses to snow around these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted Sunday at 05:59 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:59 PM How many times does this have to be reiterated: if it looks good 5 days out, be prepared to have the football pulled. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted Sunday at 06:03 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:03 PM I'm noticing Friday the 21st dates on a number of the recently posted maps. Is there consensus (whether it scrapes by or hits more directly, is weaker or is stronger, etc.) that anything that were to happen would start more like Thursday night rather than overnight Wednesday into Thursday? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted Sunday at 06:04 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:04 PM Eh Image 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted Sunday at 06:05 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:05 PM 17 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: 50 mile adjustment north and west = MECS in NYC metro --- lets see how many EPS members are 50 miles north and west of the OP The problem is this is by far the most NW of all models. Others need a 150-200 mile shift 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Sunday at 06:07 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:07 PM 3 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said: I'm noticing Friday the 21st dates on a number of the recently posted maps. Is there consensus (whether it scrapes by or hits more directly, is weaker or is stronger, etc.) that anything that were to happen would start more like Thursday night rather than overnight Wednesday into Thursday? No it's gone by Thursday evening 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted Sunday at 06:08 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:08 PM 26 minutes ago, wxman said: 100 mile adjustment in next 3 days would be a foot for many here. Definitely not over. Especially when they can go 300 miles in 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted Sunday at 06:08 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:08 PM 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted Sunday at 06:09 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:09 PM 4 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Eh Image Oy this is terrible. What a crazy let down last 24 hours 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted Sunday at 06:16 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:16 PM 7 minutes ago, mikem81 said: Oy this is terrible. What a crazy let down last 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted Sunday at 06:20 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:20 PM Just now, dseagull said: The bread and butter of lawyers, pain doctors and chiropractors.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted Sunday at 06:21 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:21 PM Looking at the euro won’t take much for Long Island to get a warning level event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted Sunday at 06:29 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 06:29 PM 25 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said: I'm noticing Friday the 21st dates on a number of the recently posted maps. Is there consensus (whether it scrapes by or hits more directly, is weaker or is stronger, etc.) that anything that were to happen would start more like Thursday night rather than overnight Wednesday into Thursday? NO consensus... it has to start here by 12z Thu. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted Sunday at 06:34 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 06:34 PM Of course I worry but we're 96-108 hours out... we are modeled to be grazed and that's kind what the thread P!- headline tried to caution. I dont expect a big one here, but I continue 2-6" for the NYC subforum. Maybe I'm too high, but I think being steady with the original perception and cautions is working. Maybe WPC is too strong too? per it's attached 16z/16 issuance for D5 Thursday, using the legend color bar probs for 3" or more of snow. I'll throw in the towel tomorrow afternoon if all the 12z-18z/17 ensembles are less than 1" NYC. High pressure WAYYYY out west and room to edge north. Enjoy what you can in life... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted Sunday at 06:40 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:40 PM 58 minutes ago, wxman said: 100 mile adjustment in next 3 days would be a foot for many here. Definitely not over. Hillsborough always speaks the truth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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