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Discussion-OBS snow event sometime between 06z Thu 2/20-12z Fri 2/21?


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  On 2/16/2025 at 10:20 AM, MorristownWx said:

Got locked out of my account because I forgot my password and wasn’t getting an email to reset. Decided to get a more accurate name to reflect location. Maybe the name change will bring us some luck
 

formerly BoulderWx 

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The same thing once happened to me.  Had to create a new account due to lost password.  Maybe the mods can look into it.

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Really nice progression of QPF steadily increasing (likely snow at >10:1 ratios with temps around 20F) on the ECMWF-AIFS since yesterday.  it now shows 0.5" QPF along 95 (that would be ~7" at 14:1 ratios) and up to 0.7" QPF for the coast (10" at 14:1), whereas it was only showing 0.1-0.2" QPF yesterday along 95.  Considering that the AIFS has been the one model always showing a coastal scraper to even a complete miss for days, this is a big shift NW with the precip shield.  

image.gif.0e94a00237a0806ef1e5661cd4a8ae00.gif

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  On 2/16/2025 at 12:46 PM, Allsnow said:

Didn’t really want to see the euro/eps take a step back at 06z. Sometimes these off hour runs do odd things but we need to see a good trend at 12z 

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The ensemble mean took a bit of a step back, but the Op didn't, at least at the surface with snow.  

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Still my early thoughts, but I think this will be a good hit, most likely our biggest event for everyone in this sub, save for extreme north/west areas. Jersey Coast and LI look like the best shot for now. I still have zero care for any qpf or snow maps until today's migraine maker (ugh) gets on out of here. 

I wouldn't be surprised if we continue to see some gradual trends to the west today. 

 

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I definitely lean more towards a total shutout here now.  obviously we’re not seeing that on any ensembles or models yet but at this stage given the changes we’ve seen I suspect that once we get inside about 84 or 90 we’ll probably see this at a high risk of flattening out even further.  I just warned some people online I said you might even have to be worried in DC, which I was telling people about here yesterday

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  On 2/16/2025 at 2:39 PM, SnowGoose69 said:

I definitely lean more towards a total shutout here now.  obviously we’re not seeing that on any ensembles or models yet but at this stage given the changes we’ve seen I suspect that once we get inside about 84 or 90 we’ll probably see this at a high risk of flattening out even further.  I just warned some people online I said you might even have to be worried in DC, which I was telling people about here yesterday

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please explain why ????? seems to me everything looks great with the track until it gets past Hatteras and then fades out to sea- whats causing that ?

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  On 2/16/2025 at 2:39 PM, SnowGoose69 said:

I definitely lean more towards a total shutout here now.  obviously we’re not seeing that on any ensembles or models yet but at this stage given the changes we’ve seen I suspect that once we get inside about 84 or 90 we’ll probably see this at a high risk of flattening out even further.  I just warned some people online I said you might even have to be worried in DC, which I was telling people about here yesterday

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So no more changes ? What ?

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