Allsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 EPS only Out to hr 42 but confluence is a tad weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 That was good to see after a night of lousy model runs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Remember 18z eps actually were northwest and had a lean west so hopefully we’re seeing a correction back. Should know soon with 0z eps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 5:54 AM, winterwx21 said: That was good to see after a night of lousy model runs. Expand still keeps us in the ballgame but east gets more then west metro of course 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 5:54 AM, NEG NAO said: thats what you said about the OP run but it still went east when passing Hatteras Expand Seriously stop. He's talking about small improvements. He never said anything about it coming to crush us that run. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 5:54 AM, NEG NAO said: thats what you said about the OP run but it still went east when passing Hatteras Expand It came further nw then 18z because confluence was weaker and ridge out west was better. If you cant see that difference I don’t know what to tell you nyc qpf is .5+ now on 18z idk if it broke .2 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 And it was an improvement 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 5:57 AM, Rjay said: Seriously stop. He's talking about small improvements. He never said anything about it coming to crush us that run. Expand I wasn't expecting large scale improvements yet until this current storm exits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 EPS out to hr72 the ridge is a bit further east but confluence weaker. I think we might see a slight improvement but nothing drastically worst then 18z imo 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 5:57 AM, Allsnow said: It came further nw then 18z because confluence was weaker and ridge out west was better. If you cant see that difference I don’t know what to tell you nyc qpf is .5+ now on 18z idk if it broke .2 Expand I see it - .5 seems more realistic IMO right now BUT that .5 can easily go back to much higher amounts similar to what last night was showing IMO - only time will tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 6:02 AM, Allsnow said: EPS out to hr72 the ridge is a bit further east but confluence weaker. I think we might see a slight improvement but nothing drastically worst then 18z imo Expand 18z had a decent left lean 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 6:02 AM, Allsnow said: EPS out to hr72 the ridge is a bit further east but confluence weaker. I think we might see a slight improvement but nothing drastically worst then 18z imo Expand it looks more consolidated with less confluence. should improve 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Hgts increased/confluence weaker/kicker a hair quicker should at the very least have agreement with the op 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 6:04 AM, brooklynwx99 said: it looks more consolidated with less confluence. should improve Expand Rockie ridge looking stronger at hr 96 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 6:06 AM, Allsnow said: Rockie ridge looking stronger at hr 96 Expand ULL more amped too 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 6:09 AM, brooklynwx99 said: ULL more amped too Expand Sharp east turn at 108 and 114 though on the SLP individual members on PW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 6:05 AM, Allsnow said: Hgts increased/confluence weaker/kicker a hair quicker should at the very least have agreement with the op Expand Yup… solid agreement with the op and a bump north from 18z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Image Image Image 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Still some nice west learners on indies 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 6:10 AM, yoda said: Sharp east turn at 108 and 114 though on the SLP individual members on PW Expand Yeah, but the precipitation field was more expensive. I wonder if that’s more because of the ULL passing through? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 N/w of 12z I don’t have 18 Image 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 6:10 AM, yoda said: Sharp east turn at 108 and 114 though on the SLP individual members on PW Expand well if the confluence is less - what is causing the sharp turn the last 24 hours ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 https://x.com/miketfox5/status/1891002457251078359?s=46 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 6:15 AM, Allsnow said: Expand Do you have the frame before that? Looks like there still a decent on the west side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 6:15 AM, NEG NAO said: well if the confluence is less - what is causing the sharp turn the last 24 hours ? Too fast flow from the west ? Expand 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 6:16 AM, Allsnow said: Expand Some solid hits. How does it compare to last run? More or about same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 6:16 AM, Allsnow said: Expand individual members all over the place - that tells us something - they are still going to adjust to more of a consensus as we inch closer to showtime 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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