allgame830 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said: Some people jumping ship way too early, it's kind of silly actually. Again, most models were showing a huge storm just last night so it's way too early to give up after one model suite (I hardly count the 18z models which tend to have wonky solutions). IF the trend continues tonight then more concern should be had but even then it'll still be too early to make any sweeping statements about what will happen. Right like I said earlier the concern should start to set in if positives don’t start to come back at the very lastest tomorrow night early Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 7 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said: Some people jumping ship way too early, it's kind of silly actually. Again, most models were showing a huge storm just last night so it's way too early to give up after one model suite (I hardly count the 18z models which tend to have wonky solutions). IF the trend continues tonight then more concern should be had but even then it'll still be too early to make any sweeping statements about what will happen. Its emotional investment. Lol. And I'm not making fun of it. It's like reading a familiar bedtime story. As long as folks realize that it's for entertainment and as a hobby, rather than get lost in it, it's actually pretty darn funny. And the roller coaster is part of the rush for many. The irony is that many folks lose so much sleep leading up to a big threat, that they are totally smoked when a big storm verifies and delivers the goods. I get it... i grew up anxiously waiting for radio updates, then spent hundreds of hours in the early weather channel days waiting for my local on the 8s to update. (I still watch the 96 blizzard videos from TWC on YouTube, with the music bringing me right back... Some of my fondest memories are from the lead-up... more so than the actual storms. Holds true today. I'm an unapologetic weather weenie, and will be until the day I die. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 11 minutes ago, dseagull said: Some of my fondest memories are from the lead-up... more so than the actual storms. Holds true today. I'm an unapologetic weather weenie, and will be until the day I die. Yep lol, exactly this. It's the same way I am, the thrill and anxiety of model watching leading up to a big event is almost more memorable than the event itself. Boxing Day 2010 in particular was one of the biggest thrill rides that I remember, the exhilaration particularly at 0z on Christmas Eve when the models brought it back was on another level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I'd be up the 2 and 3 nights leading up to it watching models, it would be mainly Tombo or one other calling the PBP and then have to plow for the duration and then some. I don't lose sleep over them anymore. It ain't worth it. If there's 10 new pages to read when I wake up in the morning, I know we got something. If it's 1 or 2 pages, it's a fudderdudder... Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 4 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said: Yep lol, exactly this. It's the same way I am, the thrill and anxiety of model watching leading up to a big event is almost more memorable than the event itself. Boxing Day 2010 in particular was one of the biggest thrill rides that I remember, the exhilaration particularly at 0z on Christmas Eve when the models brought it back was on another level. Lots of different folks here... who share a similar love for weather of all sorts... A link to one of my favorite storm coverage on TWC back in 96. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just a few reminders here about how things can change really close to game time Most recently for those on LI Jan 2022 trended nw just enough on top of having a great jet structure to slam us and Boston. Just grazed nyc with moderate totals. Feb 2021 - this waivers back and forth and ultimately trended north enough that some had mixing and dry slot issues out here. Dec 2020: snow max once modeled over NYC was well update. No model not even the euro was the far north. GFS was atrocious with this too. Jan 2018: trended nw. Quick hitting snow event with a foot in the city and 15 out here Jan 2016. Modeled to max DC and it maxed over NYC. It can change on a dime. Don't forget that and don't think that what we are seeing now is #lockedin 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Its emotional investment. Lol. And I'm not making fun of it. It's like reading a familiar bedtime story. As long as folks realize that it's for entertainment and as a hobby, rather than get lost in it, it's actually pretty darn funny. And the roller coaster is part of the rush for many. The irony is that many folks lose so much sleep leading up to a big threat, that they are totally smoked when a big storm verifies and delivers the goods. I get it... i grew up anxiously waiting for radio updates, then spent hundreds of hours in the early weather channel days waiting for my local on the 8s to update. (I still watch the 96 blizzard videos from TWC on YouTube, with the music bringing me right back... Some of my fondest memories are from the lead-up... more so than the actual storms. Holds true today. I'm an unapologetic weather weenie, and will be until the day I die. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 5 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said: Just a few reminders here about how things can change really close to game time Most recently for those on LI Jan 2022 trended nw just enough on top of having a great jet structure to slam us and Boston. Just grazed nyc with moderate totals. Feb 2021 - this waivers back and forth and ultimately trended north enough that some had mixing and dry slot issues out here. Dec 2020: snow max once modeled over NYC was well update. No model not even the euro was the far north. GFS was atrocious with this too. Jan 2018: trended nw. Quick hitting snow event with a foot in the city and 15 out here Jan 2016. Modeled to max DC and it maxed over NYC. It can change on a dime. Don't forget that and don't think that what we are seeing now is #lockedin Great points. Jan 28 into 29, 2022... Grazer I suppose... wound up with 18.3 on barnegat bay. Quick hitter. Day before, had 3-5 forcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 6 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said: Just a few reminders here about how things can change really close to game time Most recently for those on LI Jan 2022 trended nw just enough on top of having a great jet structure to slam us and Boston. Just grazed nyc with moderate totals. Feb 2021 - this waivers back and forth and ultimately trended north enough that some had mixing and dry slot issues out here. Dec 2020: snow max once modeled over NYC was well update. No model not even the euro was the far north. GFS was atrocious with this too. Jan 2018: trended nw. Quick hitting snow event with a foot in the city and 15 out here Jan 2016. Modeled to max DC and it maxed over NYC. It can change on a dime. Don't forget that and don't think that what we are seeing now is #lockedin March 2017…jackpot went from just NW of I-95 to well inland as the low hugged the coast which introduced mixing issues for lots of people initially projected to remain all snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Having said all that, I'll be waiting for the 00z models tonight. I work 24/7 from the end of March until mid January. This is my downtime season. I hunt with my dog and travel a bit. And it's the only time I can enjoy a cocktail or two without worrying about an on water rescue or tow. Praying for a good storm to wrap this frustrating winter up. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 End of Nam looks like it would deliver the goods 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 6 minutes ago, nycsnow said: End of Nam looks like it would deliver the goods It looks great 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Image 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Not even posting the rest lol it’s a miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, nycsnow said: Not even posting the rest lol it’s a miss Icon miss Slams the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Icon miss Slams the south Yea this might be over by tomorrow 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 25 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It looks great Icon way south. You still want to say se isn’t the trend ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3-5 inches here barley… Delaware still gets over a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Undeniable at this point it’s following every single storm this year. Let’s see what happens by 12z Tom but we’re almost on life support here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 If this misses I blame @MJO812 I feel like mother nature just wants to troll him at this point 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowguy66 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 D 12 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Undeniable at this point it’s following every single storm this year. Let’s see what happens by 12z Tom but we’re almost on life support here Its the ICON. Focus on the 00z and and 12z Euro right now. Then watch to see where the GFS and Euro AI (ugh...AI) split the difference. It's 4 days off. I'm not looking at the damn ICON or UKIE. Garbage in, garbage OUT! It's always going to be models following suit until the data input is devoid of the current system which has not yet left the area. It's always been that way. That's why we get the back and forth with spacing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Alright gfs running lets bring it back!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Gfs doesn’t look good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Once euro shows southern slider I am done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, nycsnow said: Gfs doesn’t look good Yeh I think we can put this one to sleep fairly quickly 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I'm going to bed. Night. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, Neblizzard said: Yeh I think we can put this one to sleep fairly quickly We still have a few days. Not over. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, MJO812 said: We still have a few days. Not over. I actually agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krs4Lfe Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 This is what happens when we bet against the base state. Southern sliders have been the theme all winter. Why would that change now? And there’s not much to bring this system northwest with the blocking in the wrong place. It is what it is, just unfortunate because this was our best shot all season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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