JBG Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 10:55 PM, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said: People really do expect the models to show blizzard conditions every run from now until the storm. Like we haven’t been down this road before where models lose the storm to bring it back Expand That sure happened in December 2010, the Boxing Day Blizzard. That was also a Niña. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I don't know if we'll have another boxing day style 48 hour "bust" ever again. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Maybe a met, or just someone with a better memory than me can chime in, but if memory serves, over the last twenty years, quite a few of our more memorable storms have been on our radar a week out, then were almost entirely lost, only to show up again with a vengeance a few days later. And I don't say this as someone rooting for a storm to happen. Normally I definitely would, but I'm supposed to be travelling Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 11:06 PM, JBG said: That sure happened in December 2010, the Boxing Day Blizzard. That was also a Niña. Expand Not inside 5 days. 3 days out all the models lost the storm before bringing it back 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 11:06 PM, JBG said: That sure happened in December 2010, the Boxing Day Blizzard. That was also a Niña. Expand Feb 11, 1983 wasn't locked in till a day or so before..... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonymm Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 11:06 PM, BxEngine said: Lets at least tell the truth, boxing day was nowhere near locked in. 3 days before it showed roughly what todays 12z gfs showed for us for thursday. Cmon people. Expand yup sorry misremembered the storm. meant to use boxing day as the example where it DIDNT happen. regardless if u go back and look at most serious KU's the ones which were OTS over and over at a small lead time are the clear minority. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 11:11 PM, Nibor said: I don't know if we'll have another boxing day style 48 hour "bust" ever again. Expand Yeah, seems like modeling has improved a lot in 14 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 how's 18z euro looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Boxing Day was a different time. Over 14 years ago. The models were far less skilled then. This is common for wound up coastals. Give it till Monday night. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 11:12 PM, NEG NAO said: Feb 11, 1983 wasn't locked in till a day or so before..... Expand That storm was not locked in until the afternoon of. The LFM lost it on the night before. I remember it very well. The morning of nobody was predicting 12" for NYC, never mind 20". I THINK maybe forecasts the morning of were in the 3-6" range. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I would be more concerned if it was locked in at this point. Just let it be in the ballpark at this point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 18z euro further southeast. Confluence is stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 There was a storm earlier this year that had an almost identical progression to this (I'm almost sure it's @Stormlover74's avatar). Models showed an absolute bomb for a few cycles despite a tainted ridge, and eventually it showed the ridge rolling over and the storm stayed wayyyyyy out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 11:25 PM, Allsnow said: Expand This a possibility with the stronger confluence. Suppression has always been on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Windshield wiper. Back tomorrow at 12z with the goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 11:25 PM, Allsnow said: 18z euro further southeast. Confluence is stronger Expand If I had to pick something positive from this run, it's that the storm is already so strong at that latitude. The 2015 storm that phased too late for us (and buried LI and New England) scarred me for life. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonymm Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Damn what did delmarva do to deserve such a badass winter ? They're out-snowing Albany ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonymm Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 11:29 PM, dseagull said: Windshield wiper. Back tomorrow at 12z with the goods. Expand we havent had a single nw trend this winter. they go south and they stay south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 11:29 PM, dseagull said: Windshield wiper. Back tomorrow at 12z with the goods. Expand This always happens with large storms. Like clockwork. It's a very favorable pattern. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 11:39 PM, anthonymm said: we havent had a single nw trend this winter. they go south and they stay south. Expand Not the same pattern 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 11:39 PM, MJO812 said: Not the same pattern Expand How so? This is nearly identical to the storm earlier this year (don't remember the date) that did the exact same thing. This isn't one of those years that storms come back from the dead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Congrats Virginia. If this happens I happily welcome Spring 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 11:25 PM, Allsnow said: Expand This perfectly fits the winter pattern, this I believe will happen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimbo073 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 11:06 PM, BxEngine said: Lets at least tell the truth, boxing day was nowhere near locked in. 3 days before it showed roughly what todays 12z gfs showed for us for thursday. Cmon people. Expand It wasnt locked in until Christmas day when warnings went up late 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 11:53 PM, qg_omega said: This perfectly fits the winter pattern, this I believe will happen Expand Need to ease the confluence but we haven’t don’t that all season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/15/2025 at 11:55 PM, jimbo073 said: It wasnt locked in until Christmas day when warnings went up late Expand Janice Huff was calling for 2 inches on the 23rd 11 PM broadcast. So bad. Nick at Fox and that other dude Lee Goldberg were looking at the GFS before going live and were starting to honk. Now recall that 8 days out, boxing day was well advertised and then the models universally lost it. A lot of people forget that. It was foretold. Super rare and extreme case, but that is what went down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/15/2025 at 11:12 PM, NEG NAO said: Feb 11, 1983 wasn't locked in till a day or so before..... Expand Neither was January 1996 or January 2016 or PD2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 12:00 AM, cleetussnow said: Janice Huff was calling for 2 inches on the 23rd 11 PM broadcast. So bad. Nick at Fox and that other dude Lee Goldberg were looking at the GFS before going live and were starting to honk. Now recall that 8 days out, boxing day was well advertised and then the models universally lost it. A lot of people forget that. It was foretold. Super rare and extreme case, but that is what went down. Expand In fact I recall the NWS offices were calling that GFS run a fluke due to convective feedback. Wonder if others remember that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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