TriPol Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 hours ago, wishcast_hater said: Here we go with the bs. It’s gonna be LIVE, DIE, LIVE, DIE until consensus. . Please no “It’s nowcasting time” this far ahead of the storm. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, qg_omega said: Pattern never supported an i95 KU just delusional posting by the same people. Put some money where your mouth is. If you’re wrong, you have to make a $20 donation to the Leukemia Lymphoma Society. Deal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 7 minutes ago, nycsnow said: We got wet roads here lol Count your blessings. I got about a half hour of wet slop when on the water a bit ago down here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I'd be ok with it if it brushes us with a moderate snowstorm like many of today's model runs show. Hopefully it won't end up being a complete miss. This is still pretty early considering model skill at predicting storm track at this range. They could completely take away our snow tonight or tomorrow and then bring it back on Monday. We won't know for awhile. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 15 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: The issue for me is not that we don't have enough time to trend back, as it is still very close, it's more the fast flow that has not relented all year and we are finally seeing the effects. If this was 2011 I wouldn't worry at all. Basically the SE ridge that is unbeatable and pumped up this storm suddenly becomes weak. Brooklyn WX was likely correct in saying it's not the SE ridge flexing it's nothing more than an amplifying system pumping up heights not a super ridge that apparently is doing nothing now. When there is a very fast Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet we often don’t get enough spacing between shortwaves so the one behind acts as the kicker and the Southeast Ridge doesn’t amplify enough. Then when we do get enough spacing between storms like today and heights rise enough over the Rockies, we get a sub 970 cutter and overamped Southeast Ridge today into tomorrow. The in between systems that have hugged the coast pumped the Southeast Ridge just enough to mix and change to rain but not enough to cut. So the dynamic between the fast Pacific Jet and warmer waters off the East Coast has been favoring cutters, huggers, and suppressed Southern Stream systems. It’s no coincidence that the last true BM 10”+ event in NYC was in 20-21 and on Long Island In 22. So it shows how little margin of error we have to work with in order to get a perfect benchmark track in this regime. Hopefully, we can eventually get one storm that can defy the odds. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Gefs don't look too bad 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: When there is a very fast Pacific flow we often don’t get enough spacing between shortwaves so the one behind acts as the kicker and the Southeast Ridge doesn’t amplify enough. Then when we do get enough spacing between storms like today and heights rise enough over the Rockies, we get a sub 970 cutter and overamped Southeast Ridge today into tomorrow. The in between systems that have hugged the coast pumped the Ridge just enough to mix and change to rain but not enough to cut. So the dynamic between the fast Pacific Jet and warmer waters off the East Coast has been favoring cutters, huggers, and suppressed Southern Stream systems. It’s no coincidence that the last true BM 10”+ event in NYC was in 20-21 and on Long Island In 22. So it shows how little margin of error we have to work with in order to get a perfect benchmark track in this regime. Hopefully, we can eventually get one storm that can defy the odds. Do you think this one could defy the odds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Nice shift on GEFS 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: When there is a very fast Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet we often don’t get enough spacing between shortwaves so the one behind acts as the kicker and the Southeast Ridge doesn’t amplify enough. Then when we do get enough spacing between storms like today and heights rise enough over the Rockies, we get a sub 970 cutter and overamped Southeast Ridge today into tomorrow. The in between systems that have hugged the coast pumped the Southeast Ridge just enough to mix and change to rain but not enough to cut. So the dynamic between the fast Pacific Jet and warmer waters off the East Coast has been favoring cutters, huggers, and suppressed Southern Stream systems. It’s no coincidence that the last true BM 10”+ event in NYC was in 20-21 and on Long Island In 22. So it shows how little margin of error we have to work with in order to get a perfect benchmark track in this regime. Hopefully, we can eventually get one storm that can defy the odds. Yeah you never know when one will defy the odds. We've had many nice thread the needle snowstorms through the years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 It will wind up being one of those model scenarios where the Euro appears to be sadistically teasing weenies until a day of lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 We’re down to the Ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonymm Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Welp, shitty trends today. Unless they reverse by tomorrow it's over. Can't get a nice solid ridge over the rockies to save ourselves. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: We’re down to the Ukie. This sounds so depressing lol. GEFS was better than the OP. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 12 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Nice shift on GEFS perfect example why one can't put all their eggs into the GFS OP basket 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 minutes ago, anthonymm said: Welp, shitty trends today. Unless they reverse by tomorrow it's over. Can't get a nice solid ridge over the rockies to save ourselves. Another terrible post from you 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, allgame830 said: This sounds so depressing lol. GEFS was better than the OP. Yeah the GEFs miss was better than the GFS miss. Giving until 0z tomorrow to see if it comes back around. But not holding my breath! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krs4Lfe Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 32 minutes ago, psv88 said: Clear trends toward a scraper today. Don’t see anything which will stop the trend. Fast flow, kicker, ridge not ideal. Enjoy todays snow… Today’s snow barely existed. Clear trends today towards the northern stream pushing this one out too far for most of us. Again, it’s hard to bet against the base state. If we didn’t get a big one so far this season, we likely won’t at all 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 People really do expect the models to show blizzard conditions every run from now until the storm. Like we haven’t been down this road before where models lose the storm to bring it back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, cleetussnow said: Yeah the GEFs miss was better than the GFS miss. Giving until 0z tomorrow to see if it comes back around. But not holding my breath! Yea I agree until 0z tomorrow hopefully we can see some positives sooner. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonymm Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said: People really do expect the models to show blizzard conditions every run from now until the storm. Like we have been down this road before where models lose the storm to bring it back It happens plenty of times. Dec 2010 was locked in, 2016 was really really locked in. The examples where they lose it completely ots for multiple consecutive runs like presidents day or something are rarer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said: People really do expect the models to show blizzard conditions every run from now until the storm. Like we haven’t been down this road before where models lose the storm to bring it back I think the difference this time around is that the past few years we have had a raging pacific when we didn’t have it back just 3-4 years ago. Yes time is on our side since it’s only Saturday but you really do want to see a positive trend by tomorrow night at the latest because I don’t think this one will make a magic run back like 2010. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, allgame830 said: I think the difference this time around is that the past few years we have had a raging pacific when we didn’t have it back just 3-4 years ago. Yes time is on our side since it’s only Saturday but you really do want to see a positive trend by tomorrow night at the latest because I don’t think this one will make a magic run back like 2010. Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I’d give it another 24 hours or so, the trend might reverse. If by 0z Mon or so we still see the trend toward it getting booted, I’d throw in the towel. But we all know the tendency and trends with every storm this winter and what happened in January, so no one should be surprised if this one fails too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 36 minutes ago, psv88 said: Clear trends toward a scraper today. Don’t see anything which will stop the trend. Fast flow, kicker, ridge not ideal. Enjoy todays snow… It's way too early to say this, it was one cycle of models showing a flatter solution. Just last night most models were showing a bomb. Can't live or die with every model suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, anthonymm said: It happens plenty of times. Dec 2010 was locked in, 2016 was really really locked in. The examples where they lose it completely ots for multiple consecutive runs like presidents day or something are rarer Boxing Day was not locked in; it was questionable up until the last 48 hours or so when the NWS IIRC issued a warning because they felt they had to. That seemed to be a software issue IIRC. I will agree this just isn't our year, and it is getting close to the end. But we still have some time for something decent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: It's not a trend at all. I don't get some of you people. I guess some of you never went tracked big snowstorms . This is absolutely a trend on the eps and it's a bad one. It needs to reverse. (Credit to whoever the hell posted this on discord hours ago) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, allgame830 said: I think the difference this time around is that the past few years we have had a raging pacific when we didn’t have it back just 3-4 years ago. Yes time is on our side since it’s only Saturday but you really do want to see a positive trend by tomorrow night at the latest because I don’t think this one will make a magic run back like 2010. Models have also been upgraded several times since 2010. Any phasing setup is very complex to begin with but this is also a very different setup than we had in Dec 2010. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: Models have also been upgraded several times since 2010. Any phasing setup is very complex to begin with but this is also a very different setup than we had in Dec 2010. I wasn’t necessarily comparing this too 2010 just more or less saying this one probably wouldn’t make a magic run back if it’s still mostly offshore by say Tuesday. We need changes starting tonight thru Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 7 minutes ago, anthonymm said: It happens plenty of times. Dec 2010 was locked in, 2016 was really really locked in. The examples where they lose it completely ots for multiple consecutive runs like presidents day or something are rarer Lets at least tell the truth, boxing day was nowhere near locked in. 3 days before it showed roughly what todays 12z gfs showed for us for thursday. Cmon people. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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