MJO812 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Euro AI is east 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Jma: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 24 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro AI is east Yeah game over. Winter sucks 1 2 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: Yeah game over. Winter sucks Another screenshot . My phone is piling up with your screenshots. 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 The GFS improved a ton, the Ukie improved a ton. The last euro run was great... 1 random run of the euro had a step back, 5 days out. The Euro reaction right now is exactly what I told my friend would happen in this thread at some point, whether we get the storm or not in the end. Such a fun social pattern to observe year after year. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 6 minutes ago, Jt17 said: The GFS improved a ton, the Ukie improved a ton. The last euro run was great... 1 random run of the euro had a step back, 5 days out. The Euro reaction right now is exactly what I told my friend would happen in this thread at some point, whether we get the storm or not in the end. Such a fun social pattern to observe year after year. . and you can always predict how individual posters here will react as soon as there is the first negative run ( less snow) of a individual model after many positive runs ( more snow) - lets see how Upton and MT. Holly react at about 3:30 pm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 5 minutes ago, Jt17 said: The GFS improved a ton, the Ukie improved a ton. The last euro run was great... 1 random run of the euro had a step back, 5 days out. The Euro reaction right now is exactly what I told my friend would happen in this thread at some point, whether we get the storm or not in the end. Such a fun social pattern to observe year after year. . Even if all the models take a step back tonight it's not over until Monday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 7 minutes ago, Jt17 said: The GFS improved a ton, the Ukie improved a ton. The last euro run was great... 1 random run of the euro had a step back, 5 days out. The Euro reaction right now is exactly what I told my friend would happen in this thread at some point, whether we get the storm or not in the end. Such a fun social pattern to observe year after year. . There is a lot of time to resolve this for better or worse 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreadTheNeedle Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Seems like a thread the needle event. 2 3 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, ThreadTheNeedle said: Seems like a thread the needle event. You would say that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Here we go with the bs. It’s gonna be LIVE, DIE, LIVE, DIE until consensus. . 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 8 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said: Here we go with the bs. It’s gonna be LIVE, DIE, LIVE, DIE until consensus. . lol. We're already wrapping up the fun "we're all snow bros! I love you man!" phase and into the much more tense "it's early, but not too early to worry" phase. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The kicker trough out West was a little stronger this run so everything shifted east from 0z. Need to weaken that feature in future runs for a stronger Rockies Ridge and Southeast Ridge. But the Pacific has been acting as the spoiler in recent years. So it will be something to watch over the next few days. New run Old run But that kicker hasn't even been sampled yet? When will that be properly sampled-- Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 28 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said: You would say that. Don't mess with Santa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 44 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: and you can always predict how individual posters here will react as soon as there is the first negative run ( less snow) of a individual model after many positive runs ( more snow) - lets see how Upton and MT. Holly react at about 3:30 pm I’m generally not thrown off by the movement of op runs 4 or 5+ days out but the agreement with many of the ensembles at 12z was a bit concerning. Plenty of time though, and no reason to panic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, weatherpruf said: Good luck. The harbor has become a focus of fall black fishing for the Sheepshead Bay boats that go for them. They can't fish NJ wrecks because the season starts too late. It isn't good anyway. I used to tie up to the rocks at the base of the Verrazano 35 years ago; can't do that anymore. Running drills right now off barnegat. Little snotty, but still fun. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 LOL - Upton just reduced the mid- late week storm to "snow showers likely" 60 % - can't make this stuff up - get the smelling salts ready - waiting for replies ZFP from KOKX 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Really need to get today/tomorrow's slop fest/damaging wind threat out of here before the operationals become useful. What lies in wake after this weekend will show us what we're working with. Still ensemble range for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 8 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: LOL - Upton just reduced the mid- late week storm to "snow showers likely" 60 % - can't make this stuff up - get the smelling salts ready - waiting for replies ZFP from KOKX I can't believe they did that smh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I can't believe they did that smh I can't understand using "showers" is that a mistake ? I wouldn't have included that just reduce the percentage to 60 % - should have never been 70 % yesterday - but what do I know..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 14 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: LOL - Upton just reduced the mid- late week storm to "snow showers likely" 60 % - can't make this stuff up - get the smelling salts ready - waiting for replies ZFP from KOKX *snow showers* is the most overused phrase in history 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, NEG NAO said: I can't understand using "showers" is that a mistake ? I wouldn't have included that just reduce the percentage to 60 % a *shower* not never even refer to snow, I hate that overused phrase with a passion a shower should ONLY refer to rain 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: *snow showers* is the most overused phrase in history I think "banding" is overly used, but that is a discussion for another day... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: a *shower* not never even refer to snow, I hate that overused phrase with a passion a shower should ONLY refer to rain it means they don't expect a solid widespread area of precip and that we will be on the outer precip shield with dry slots - what are they going to do if the EURO moves west again tonight ? along with the other models ? playing modelology here with their fav's waiting for MT. Holly afternoon update 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Icon coming out. Let’s get a good trend going again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, ThreadTheNeedle said: Seems like a thread the needle event. As they say in Reddit the name checks out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 It's Southeast ridge versus fast flow in this scenario. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: it means they don't expect a solid widespread area of precip and that we will be on the outer precip shield with dry slots - what are they going to do if the EURO moves west again tonight ? along with the other models ? playing modelology here with their fav's waiting for MT. Holly afternoon update I just dont like the word *shower* when it refers to snow, it's a huge source of confusion for many people who always associate *shower* with rain. I think that term needs to be retired from the weather lexicon and just use flurries instead You're right though, can't waffle back and forth, they should just say *A chance of snow* 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, EastonSN+ said: It's Southeast ridge versus fast flow in this scenario. when will that kicker be properly sampled? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 7 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Icon coming out. Let’s get a good trend going again No changes from the monster 12z run through HR48 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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