ag3 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 3:59 PM, MJO812 said: Gfs folding Expand Yup. More phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 3:45 PM, Neblizzard said: That’s easy, just call for warm every winter and hope it sticks. Expand Usually does 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 4:02 PM, ag3 said: Yup. More phasing. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 3:36 PM, Allsnow said: Lots of Nina failed February calls around here Expand The call for a warm, less snowy winter was warranted even if that’s not how things panned out. For people who enjoy cold and snow that forecast busted to their benefit. It’s felt like a real winter even if the snowfall has yet to reach normal levels, yet… we’ll see this Wed-Thurs. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 4:04 PM, MJO812 said: Expand GFS!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 It's getting there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feen Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 4:02 PM, Rjay said: Tony, can you manage to not get banned this time? Expand yes please don't ban me, i'll be good i promise. I miss you guys 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 so much better 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 3:42 PM, weatherpruf said: Calling for a warm winter in this day and age is guaranteed to be right more than not. Doesn't take any special insight really. In 20 years, I never had pipes freeze. This winter was the first time. So, a warm winter it has not been..... Expand Have you moved locations? 14/15 was the most severe-col winter i remember with long duration sub freezing since the 80s. I was doing emergency crawlspace pipe repairs for many of my neighbors. People were driving vehicles all over barnegat bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 4:02 PM, ag3 said: Yup. More phasing. Expand Not the full evolution, but the end result is very similar to what I was just saying. A good shot of a MECS storm forum wide with best snows being along the NJ coast, NYC and points East. should be a fun couple of days of tracking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 4:09 PM, BoulderWX said: Not the full evolution, but the end result is very similar to what I was just saying. A good shot of a MECS storm forum wide with best snows being along the NJ coast, NYC and points East. should be a fun couple of days of tracking. Expand Looks like Dec 2009 on the gfs. Maybe not quite as big a cutoff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 GFS has dual lows otherwise the track would be very similar to the other models. Still 12z gives 6-10" for the metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 4:07 PM, dseagull said: Have you moved locations? 14/15 was the most severe-col winter i remember with long duration sub freezing since the 80s. I was doing emergency crawlspace pipe repairs for many of my neighbors. People were driving vehicles all over barnegat bay. Expand Yep, Raritan bay and the mouth of the river under the Driscoll was frozen. Never seen anything like it before. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 4:10 PM, Stormlover74 said: Looks like Dec 2009 on the gfs. Maybe not quite as big a cutoff Expand Yeah, that would be tough lol. At this point just glad there continues to be a signal for a big storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 CMC certainly won’t be its 00z hit. Looks flatter through 114. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 4:16 PM, BoulderWX said: Yeah, that would be tough lol. At this point just glad there continues to be a signal for a big storm Expand Oh there will definitely be a storm. The one thing we can write off is a storm cutting to our west due to the strong blocking up north. The question remains if this can phase and come up the coast or will the wave be progressive and go out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Want the CMC to be a bit flatter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 4:17 PM, BoulderWX said: CMC certainly won’t be its 00z hit. Looks flatter through 114. Expand Very slow too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 4:19 PM, Metasequoia said: Want the CMC to be a bit flatter... Expand It is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Definitely going to favor li and the coast this run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 4:19 PM, Stormlover74 said: Very slow too Expand Still going to be a nice hit for the areas I keep highlighting. Just not it’s 00z run which is to be expected that there will be run to run variances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Even taking a step back cmc is still 8-12+ more east 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 4:21 PM, ag3 said: Expand Looks like a good hit to me. There will be run to run variation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Icon now a raging blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Further east so keeps it colder. Hopefully decent ratios with temps in the low 20s but we'll see 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 30+ on the Icon LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 4:24 PM, wxman said: 30+ on the Icon LOL Expand Yeah it was posted a few pages back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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