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Discussion-OBS snow event sometime between 06z Thu 2/20-12z Fri 2/21?


wdrag
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2 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

LOL ICON - all of NJ, NYC, and almost all of LI get thirty on kuchera maps that I can’t post for some reason. Weenie run for sure 

i'll take that exact solution please :weenie:

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3 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Entertainment only ***
 

Image
snku_024h-imp.us_ne.png

I don’t think anything close to that will verify because that’s literally the perfect track and combination of factors, but that was one of the best fantasy runs in a 5.5 day window I’ve seen in a while. And I say fantasy not to discredit the possibility of a major storm, but as in that would be the perfect run for all of us. 

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2 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

I don’t think anything close to that will verify because that’s literally the perfect track and combination of factors, but that was one of the best fantasy runs in a 5.5 day window I’ve seen in a while. And I say fantasy not to discredit the possibility of a major storm, but as in that would be the perfect run for all of us. 

stop being a debby downer sir just let us enjoy the moment!

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I forget what storm it was, maybe BDB where I was too far west and got close to 10” while 20 miles east got at least double that.
 

My *initial* feeling is similar to that where NYC and points east do best and this would also align if you take a compromise the current guidance.

I think the entire forum has a shot at our biggest storm of the year and a good potential for a MECS for many, just need to see how it unfolds. We’re 5+ days out so things can/will obviously change, just some initial thoughts. 

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8 minutes ago, SnowLover2025 said:

i'll take that exact solution please :weenie:

10-12 is fun. 30 is deadly. 18 inches is about the sweet spot IMO; big enough to get attention but still something you can deal with. 30 will put a lot of people in the infirmary.

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8 minutes ago, SnowLover2025 said:

stop being a debby downer sir just let us enjoy the moment!

Read what I just posted, I think the forum has a really good shot at a MECS, but not hopping on board the epic solution the Icon showed (30+ forum wide). 

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1 minute ago, BoulderWX said:

Read what I just posted, I think the forum has a really good shot at a MECS, but not hopping on board the epic solution the Icon showed. 

BECS or nothing please! I want 30 inches and than spring could just come anytime after!

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1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

None were as bad as snowman's torch winter calls. 

Calling for a warm winter in this day and age is guaranteed to be right more than not. Doesn't take any special insight really. In 20 years, I never had pipes freeze. This winter was the first time. So, a warm winter it has not been.....

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Just now, SnowLover2025 said:

BECS or nothing please! I want 30 inches and than spring could just come anytime after!

Verbatim that ICON run was a borderline BECS (to me 30+ puts us within the range in our area). That’s why it’s highly unlikely (but not impossible!)

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3 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Read what I just posted, I think the forum has a really good shot at a MECS, but not hopping on board the epic solution the Icon showed. 

Yeah half that number is more likely as a max. And we're likely still going to see model disagreement the next couple days, maybe even losing the storm completely 

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Just now, weatherpruf said:

Calling for a warm winter in this day and age is guaranteed to be right more than not. Doesn't take any special insight really. In 20 years, I never had pipes freeze. This winter was the first time. So, a warm winter it has not been.....

His calls were essentially a record warm, snowless blowtorch though. 

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Just now, weatherpruf said:

Calling for a warm winter in this day and age is guaranteed to be right more than not. Doesn't take any special insight really. In 20 years, I never had pipes freeze. This winter was the first time. So, a warm winter it has not been.....

oh, stop it. He was calling+4 through the winter.
 

Even I told him he was being ridiculous.

 

There’s warm winters and then that’s ridiculous

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