BoulderWX Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Will use 00z suite and 12z suites to monitor snowfall outputs for Morristown (MMU) posterity and post mortem. Using 10:1 for all for consistency. Yes I realize amounts could be higher/lower due that, but want to have one baseline. Friday Night - 00z Suite @ 10:1 ratios - MMU - CMC: 12.9” - GFS: 0” - EURO: 17” - ICON: 0.2” - UKIE: 6.4” *this post brought to you by insomnia 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, BoulderWX said: Will use 00z suite and 12z suites to monitor snowfall outputs for Morristown (MMU) posterity and post mortem. Using 10:1 for all for consistency. Yes I realize amounts could be higher/lower due that, but want to have one baseline. Friday Night - 00z Suite @ 10:1 ratios - MMU - CMC: 12.9” - GFS: 0” - EURO: 17” - ICON: 0.2” - UKIE: 6.4” *this post brought to you by insomnia I feel your pain wide awake since 2,,,,that said I wish this storm was 2 days away and NOT 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 hours ago, David-LI said: why the big difference between gfs and euro? why are they showing diffrent solutions? who will win? euro is king no? This is like Coke vs. Pepsi. These two been going at it for a long time. In a setup like this, I favor the EURO. EURO AI has been great also. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 12 minutes ago, TriPol said: This is like Coke vs. Pepsi. These two been going at it for a long time. In a setup like this, I favor the EURO. EURO AI has been great also. Euro is a crusher. Euro AI is a whiff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, Rjay said: Euro is a crusher. Euro AI is a whiff. I am sick of AI already…. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: I am sick of AI already…. Small jump between runs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 All the ensembles took a step back last night. Let's see what today brings. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 32 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: I am sick of AI already…. It appears AI has a sense of humor. I'm headed to the Poconos this morning ahead of the snow and ahead of congestion pricing lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 50 minutes ago, TriPol said: This is like Coke vs. Pepsi. These two been going at it for a long time. In a setup like this, I favor the EURO. EURO AI has been great also. They are both toxic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, BoulderWX said: Will use 00z suite and 12z suites to monitor snowfall outputs for Morristown (MMU) posterity and post mortem. Using 10:1 for all for consistency. Yes I realize amounts could be higher/lower due that, but want to have one baseline. Friday Night - 00z Suite @ 10:1 ratios - MMU - CMC: 12.9” - GFS: 0” - EURO: 17” - ICON: 0.2” - UKIE: 6.4” *this post brought to you by insomnia The GFS will give you insomnia. Luckily, I go to bed at 10 PM before any of this stuff comes out and read it when I wake up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 5 hours ago, psv88 said: I hate the word “tucked”. It implies “tucked in to the coast” which means rain for city and coast. A tucked in solution is bad for much of the forum (not north and west). a crippling blizzard for the big cities won’t be “tucked” it would be a track inside the benchmark Wasn't February 1978 tucked in though? I've seen satellite images where it looked like a hurricane with an eye due south of Long Island. I guess it depends on what type of storm. Some storms that tuck into the coast are so strong that they wrap cold air all the way around the storm. The Millenium storm was like that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 5 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said: That was a tucky tuck Carl "Tuck"erson run! The tuck rule? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 5 hours ago, Rjay said: Tbf this run is pretty tucked into the coast and well inside the BM. I wouldn't call it a "hugger" though. Whole sub gets crushed and weenies fly but the jackpot would prob be nyc-n/w this run. only eastern long island mixes though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 5 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: no, just 1-2 feet of snow Man that 500 is beautiful! Love the upper low track through northern VA and passing to our south! Was what I mentioned yesterday morning that would deliver the goods. Goods = heavy snow, strong winds and very cold high ratio wind driven snow. Would love to see these trends continue today or at least something very similar. Get this to 12Z Monday looking like this and I will feel much more confident. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 5 hours ago, NEG NAO said: question now is what will the ratio's be ? 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 5 hours ago, NEG NAO said: as of right now the timing for the immediate NYC metro is snow develops sometime after midnight Thursday and tapers off sometime in the mid- late evening Thursday and ends close to midnight so close to a 20 -24 hour event - lets see if there are any timing changes and or duration changes as we get closer and closer to showtime............BTW this is according to the 0Z Euro it's perfect the heaviest snow will be falling during the day Thursday with temperatures in the 20s and the winds gusting up to 50 mph! On the Euro, the only mixing issues I saw were south of Atlantic City and east of Riverhead. I said *mixing issues* because although it looks like the mix line will get as far north as Toms River and as far west as Fire Island, it doesn't cause lowering of snowfall totals until you're south of Atlantic City or east of Riverhead. 24 hour blizzard Midnight Thursday to Midnight Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 5 hours ago, NEG NAO said: question now is what will the ratio's be ? I'll revise, I think they'll be 12:1 based on past storms like this even with the high winds. Temperatures will be in the 20s and the snow will be dry and powdery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 26 minutes ago, MANDA said: Man that 500 is beautiful! Love the upper low track through northern VA and passing to our south! Was what I mentioned yesterday morning that would deliver the goods. Goods = heavy snow, strong winds and very cold high ratio wind driven snow. Would love to see these trends continue today or at least something very similar. Get this to 12Z Monday looking like this and I will feel much more confident. Best part is we will finally get a day time blizzard! This could be the best one here since January 2016. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 06z Euro is another crusher for the area. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, Tatamy said: 06z Euro is another crusher for the area. I'll hopefully be getting the best of both storms, leaving for the Poconos in one hour and will return Tuesday or Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I'll revise, I think they'll be 12:1 based on past storms like this even with the high winds. Temperatures will be in the 20s and the snow will be dry and powdery. A blizzard is great I guess with all the high winds and drifting, but not great for snow growth. The high winds breaks down the dendrites. You want calmer winds for maximum snow accumulation potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I'll hopefully be getting the best of both storms, leaving for the Poconos in one hour and will return Tuesday or Wednesday. I'm in the Berkshires till next Friday, I would not mind seeing the best of both storms either. Hopefully it comes to fruition. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 22 minutes ago, Tatamy said: 06z Euro is another crusher for the area. Eps is also getting better for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 26 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Best part is we will finally get a day time blizzard! This could be the best one here since January 2016. That was an incredible storm to be out in too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Hearing from NE sub that the EPS mean shifted west and it’s a few very far east members that are skewing it. Good news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said: Hearing from NE sub that the EPS mean shifted west and it’s a few very far east members that are skewing it. Good news. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 21 minutes ago, Yanksfan said: A blizzard is great I guess with all the high winds and drifting, but not great for snow growth. The high winds breaks down the dendrites. You want calmer winds for maximum snow accumulation potential. I think January 2016 and January 2018 both had like 11:1 ratios with stronger winds of longer duration. So, it won't be 15:1 but up to 12:1 is definitely possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 5 minutes ago, steve392 said: That was an incredible storm to be out in too. My last real blizzards were January 2016 and January 2018, both were great day time long duration white out snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Be wary of those 06 or 18z EPS jumps. Seen it before in recent couple of years and then the ensuing main hour run reverts back to what the tendency had been prior. At least the AI made a jump which is unusual from what I've seen from that model so far 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: Be wary of those 06 or 18z EPS jumps. Seen it before in recent couple of years and then the ensuing main hour run reverts back to what the tendency had been prior. At least the AI made a jump which is unusual from what I've seen from that model so far AI isn't in the deadly zone yet. Euro has been steady with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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