jdj5211 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 man that 18z euro run was a thing of beauty.....sign me up for that right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I have been right than many on this subforum this winter. Lay low. Keep ignoring facts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYER72 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1-3 for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Now 1.5-2 feet events are quite rare so obviously we have to be cautious - buf MJO is right that big potential is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 minutes ago, mattinpa said: Now 1.5-2 feet events are quite rare so obviously we have to be cautious - buf MJO is right that big potential is there. I disagree. Not only do I disagree but in the past 25 years we’ve had a lot haven’t we 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 This is probably the strongest signal one has seen this winter from the WPC: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: I disagree. Not only do I disagree but in the past 25 years we’ve had a lot haven’t we We had a period from 2010-2016 where they were more common but they aren’t everyday things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 25 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I have been right than many on this subforum this winter. Lay low. Keep ignoring facts Can't ignore the AI. Hopefully it's wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Can't ignore the AI. Hopefully it's wrong It's way more southeast of the GFS you could argue it's on its own compared to the GFS-Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, Nibor said: It's way more southeast of the GFS you could argue it's on its own compared to the GFS-Euro. Yesh the gfs is close at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: Exactly. Too early to really get excited given the chaotic pattern. The pieces are there for this to come together and produce, we’ve seen others go poof. In 48 hours we can start diving in I think. It’s not really chaotic - more like exotic. Triple phasers are unusual but there is precedent for them to be well advertised. Problem is with Miller A’s - subtle changes can mean a lot. See march 2001 for example. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 11 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Can't ignore the AI. Hopefully it's wrong It did not do too well with this last event, it was way south til the final day. I've not followed it much beyond 96, its been good inside of that but not so much beyond 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 23 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Can't ignore the AI. Hopefully it's wrong AI? Do people really take it seriously at this point? Do we have much in the way of history as far as accuracy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: AI? Do people really take it seriously at this point? Do we have much in the way of history as far as accuracy? Seems like there's debate whether it's useful or not. I think it nailed the January storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Seems like there's debate whether it's useful or not. I think it nailed the January storm certainly possible the Euro is over-amped at this lead time-wouldn't be the first time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cardinalland Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: AI? Do people really take it seriously at this point? Do we have much in the way of history as far as accuracy? it's gotten hyped by tech bros as "solving weather" but now 2 years out it feels like just another model to add to the pile... and sometimes it's right and sometimes it's kinda off 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 35 minutes ago, Nibor said: It's way more southeast of the GFS you could argue it's on its own compared to the GFS-Euro. I'm enthusiastic about verification scores, considering it's recent introduction. Even we wind up with broken hearts due to an AI model win, it's a longterm win for forecasting if it can continue to perform on spacial and temporal regularity. Very interesting to enter the wild west of modern forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 14 minutes ago, cardinalland said: it's gotten hyped by tech bros as "solving weather" but now 2 years out it feels like just another model to add to the pile... and sometimes it's right and sometimes it's kinda off Won't argue with you on that stance. I share it. ...but I'm definitely interested in seeing how it evolves. Isnt like we have the ability to ignore it either way. What it has done for many areas of daily life already is amazing. Unfortunately, the negatives clearly outweigh the positives when influenced by bad actors. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 37 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: It’s not really chaotic - more like exotic. Triple phasers are unusual but there is precedent for them to be well advertised. Problem is with Miller A’s - subtle changes can mean a lot. See march 2001 for example. Isnt there an automatic 10 day ban for bringing up that bust? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, dseagull said: Isnt there an automatic 10 day ban for bringing up that bust? Lol March 2001 was bad but the 3 foot blizzard that never happened was arguably an even bigger bust. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, SnoSki14 said: March 2001 was bad but the 3 foot blizzard that never happened was arguably an even bigger bust. Kind of. Depends on the audience. 2001 was one of the first "mass hype busts" of that caliber. It literally created the first local media weather memes, or was at least foreshadowing of memes. More recent busts are different, for a lot of reasons in this strange time we live in. Social media is destroying so much. I think most of us would give up all tech advances to return to yesteryear. Net loss of tech and communication. Net gain in regard to everything else. Im not sure forecasting advancements have lead to more preparedness or even accuracy. ...at least not from the perspective of the general public. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 The March 2001 bust was there to be seen-Miller B's are almost always further N and E in reality-no one wanted to see it as the models slowly shifted that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 45 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Seems like there's debate whether it's useful or not. I think it nailed the January storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 ICON at 00z looks somewhat similar to 18z GFS in that it hits Delaware and VA and coastal southern jersey with a nice storm before scooting OTS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 It’s happening isn’t it 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 11 minutes ago, BoulderWX said: ICON at 00z looks somewhat similar to 18z GFS in that it hits Delaware and VA and coastal southern jersey with a nice storm before scooting OTS Definitely the beginning of a pattern (at least for this part of the season.) I want to see what happens after the cutter materializes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irish Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 11 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: It’s happening isn’t it Oh come on, this isn't starting to lean like another going out to sea, does it? Too early, a lot can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 No way tonight’s runs will be as great as last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 GFS won't budge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Theme of the winter, squashed South. CMC not gonna look good either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now