Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 7:08 PM, SnoSki14 said: He's a troll but you definitely can't discount a southern slider. We've been horribly burned for years and there's still a lot of time for changes, good and bad. Expand 100 percent this is either up the coast or ots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 7:08 PM, SnoSki14 said: He's a troll but you definitely can't discount a southern slider. We've been horribly burned for years and there's still a lot of time for changes, good and bad. Expand 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 7:10 PM, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said: 100 percent this is either up the coast or ots Expand Or an in between solution like the icon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 6:41 PM, eduggs said: The low totals from the 12z ECM operational run are due to the SLP not gaining latitude. An ULL (offshoot of PV) forms off the coast and oozes eastward as the system stacks, pulling the whole system eastward. Great position for us, but not great for places further northeast. Many of the EPS individuals gain more latitude and would be great up and down the coast. But a slide east either with a modest event or a complete miss are still very possible. Expand Great position for us because it makes it snow longer. The great storms we all remember usually did not make it north of ACY in terms of the SLP. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 6:24 PM, eduggs said: The 12z ECM is obviously great, but we gotta watch that eastward slide at the end. The relatively low snow totals in SNE are a small red flag. I'd prefer this to tuck into RI and stall then to slide east so quickly. We're good for now but if the eastward pull happens earlier we get the SNE modeled snow. Then again other guidance (e.g., UK, CMC) hammers SNE. Expand we dont actually want this to get to that latitude, if you look at maps of our previous widespread 20 inch plus events (February 1983, January 1996, PD2 2003 and January 2016) they go due east once they reach the latitude of Delaware or southern NJ, it makes the snowfall of longer duration for us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 7:21 PM, LibertyBell said: we dont actually want this to get to that latitude, if you look at maps of our previous widespread 20 inch plus events (February 1983, January 1996, PD2 2003 and January 2016) they go due east once they reach the latitude of Delaware or southern NJ, it makes the snowfall of longer duration for us. Expand storms like boxing day, 1978, and march 1888 made a left hook near li 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 6:03 PM, SACRUS said: Looks like this run is (10:1) 10 inches from NW - NJ to 18 inches SNJ - ELI. NYC EWR in the 10 - 14 range Kuchera is 14 - 22 inches Expand this map reads 16 for the city and 20-24 for us here SW LI 5 days out so it doesn't matter that much 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Big storm idea still on the table, nice. What could go wrong 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 7:23 PM, forkyfork said: storms like boxing day, 1978, and march 1888 made a left hook near li Expand What is your take on this storm you have been spot on this winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 7:23 PM, forkyfork said: storms like boxing day, 1978, and march 1888 made a left hook near li Expand the classic loop ! February 2010 (snowicane) was like that too. Two of those had a rain component for part of the storm (1888 and 2010), Boxing Day was best over New Jersey and 1978 was best over eastern LI and SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 7:01 PM, qg_omega said: Classic Euro bias is too close to the coast in these setups, would NOT toss the GFS. Expand Do you have any recent examples where most of the globals were focused on fairly similar results simultaneously, yet the "EURO'S tucked bias" you mention was shown to be present? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 7:01 PM, qg_omega said: Classic Euro bias is too close to the coast in these setups, would NOT toss the GFS. Expand Does the UKMET and CMC have a "too close to the coast bias" in these setups? They're basically in the same spot as the Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 7:32 PM, dseagull said: Do you have any recent examples where most of the globals were focused on fairly similar results simultaneously, yet the "EURO'S tucked bias" you mention was shown to be present? Expand The January 26-27 2015 bust is a good example of that, the Euro showed an extremely tucked solution and like 40 inches of snow and the GFS was far more progressive (and right). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 7:41 PM, Nibor said: Does the UKMET and CMC have a "too close to the coast bias" in these setups? They're basically in the same spot as the Euro. Expand is that last panel showing sleet for us (not here but just east of here)? that might be a little too close 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 7:43 PM, mob1 said: The January 26-27 2015 bust is a good example of that, the Euro showed an extremely tucked solution and like 40 inches of snow and the GFS was far more progressive (and right). Expand there are far more examples going the other way though, most notably January 1996 which the GFS/AVN had offshore and the Euro/NAM/ETA had hitting us from a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 7:43 PM, mob1 said: The January 26-27 2015 bust is a good example of that, the Euro showed an extremely tucked solution and like 40 inches of snow and the GFS was far more progressive (and right). Expand Appreciate it. Looking into updates versus large bias failures for the fun of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 7:43 PM, mob1 said: The January 26-27 2015 bust is a good example of that, the Euro showed an extremely tucked solution and like 40 inches of snow and the GFS was far more progressive (and right). Expand +nao with that storm though 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 7:47 PM, forkyfork said: +nao with that storm though Expand don't we have that now too though? -AO and +NAO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzwalker Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Way up in the NW forum... Us backwoods half-wits like a good Bomb-Typhoon. Keeps the climate scientists away. Hope we all have a good storm ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 7:47 PM, dseagull said: Appreciate it. Looking into updates versus large bias failures for the fun of it. Expand I think in general at this range the Euro tends to be far more amplified with most storms than the GFS. In terms of it being a well-known bias, I think maybe only recently as the Euro used to have incredible verification scores back in the day in the mid range. They tinkered with it a little and now it definitely is a bit more overzealous in the 4-7 day range, whereas the GFS is the opposite extreme. Doesn't mean either one is right/wrong this time, but I don't think the notion should be completely discounted. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 7:49 PM, LibertyBell said: don't we have that now too though? -AO and +NAO Expand 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 7:21 PM, LibertyBell said: we dont actually want this to get to that latitude, if you look at maps of our previous widespread 20 inch plus events (February 1983, January 1996, PD2 2003 and January 2016) they go due east once they reach the latitude of Delaware or southern NJ, it makes the snowfall of longer duration for us. Expand As modeled on the 12z ECM, this is a 12-18hr event, depending on location across our area. Several of the individual members that gain more latitude also provide a longer duration event because we spend more time in the CCB as it pivots over our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 7:44 PM, LibertyBell said: there are far more examples going the other way though, most notably January 1996 which the GFS/AVN had offshore and the Euro/NAM/ETA had hitting us from a week out. Expand Didn't the euro have the boxing day storm a week out and never lost it? I remember getting blizzard warnings 2 days early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 8:09 PM, steve392 said: Didn't the euro have the boxing day storm a week out and never lost it? I remember getting blizzard warnings 2 days early. Expand No all the models lost it 3 days out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I think you discount the GFS slightly here because of the other guidance, but definitely not entirely. The GFS shows that if some aspect of this evolution is not favorable, the whole thing could fall apart. A miss southeast is still very much on the table. I'll be looking for run to run consistency from the other models in upcoming cycles; minimizing the variability will increase confidence. And of course any improvement in the GFS will be welcomed. But there could easily be occasional misses across guidance for the next few days. It is almost always like that at this range in advance of major storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 8:09 PM, steve392 said: Didn't the euro have the boxing day storm a week out and never lost it? I remember getting blizzard warnings 2 days early. Expand that was the famous GFS *bad data* win when all the other models lost it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 8:07 PM, eduggs said: As modeled on the 12z ECM, this is a 12-18hr event, depending on location across our area. Several of the individual members that gain more latitude also provide a longer duration event because we spend more time in the CCB as it pivots over our area. Expand The reason why the key to an HECS is to keep the SLP south of our latitude is that once north and east of here the wind backs around to the NW and that quickly terminates any and all snowfall (at least for here, NW is a very dry downsloping wind and the sun quickly comes out.) You want the wind to be NE as long as possible to maximize snowfall duration and that means the SLP has to stay south and east of us. Long duration snowfall isn't 12-18 hours, that's medium length, long duration is 24+ hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 8:09 PM, steve392 said: Didn't the euro have the boxing day storm a week out and never lost it? I remember getting blizzard warnings 2 days early. Expand Jan 96 you're thinking of, rest of models were S and E until the day before 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 7:24 PM, LibertyBell said: this map reads 16 for the city and 20-24 for us here SW LI 5 days out so it doesn't matter that much Expand I would just hate another bomb cyclone that hits the NJ coast, skirts C and NNJ and delivers to western LI. Seen way too many of those: I'm sitting on 6 inches and AC has and LI has the same....not that 6 inches is bad.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 8:26 PM, LibertyBell said: The reason why the key to an HECS is to keep the SLP south of our latitude is that once north and east of here the wind backs around to the NW and that terminates any and all snowfall (at least for here, NW is a very dry downsloping wind and the sun quickly comes out.) Expand Supposedly it was that NW wind that killed us in Feb 89... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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