LibertyBell Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 5:51 PM, Nibor said: Euro shows a bomb and the GFS is south east. I’ve read this book before. Expand February 1983 January 1996 PD2 2003 January 2016 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Euro would be a blizzard for coast with wind gust around 45mph 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 5:59 PM, nycsnow said: Euro would be a blizzard for coast with wind gust around 45mph Expand For immediate coast or I-95 as well? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 6:01 PM, Northof78 said: For immediate coast or I-95 as well? Expand Mostly the coast this run, but if euro is right a 977 low offshore I’m pretty sure wind field would be larger but minor details at this point 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 6:01 PM, Northof78 said: For immediate coast or I-95 as well? Expand Looks like this run is (10:1) 10 inches from NW - NJ to 18 inches SNJ - ELI. NYC EWR in the 10 - 14 range Kuchera is 14 - 22 inches 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 5:59 PM, nycsnow said: Euro would be a blizzard for coast with wind gust around 45mph Expand Would that be from the 00z run? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 6:03 PM, SACRUS said: Looks like this run is 10 inches from NW - NJ to 18 inches SNJ - ELI. NYC EWR in the 10 - 14 range Expand Looks like slightly more out this way in western Long Island.... from your description of the snowfall totals it sounds like the December 2009 snowstorm which had 10 inches at NYC and 15 inches at JFK with up to 24 inches on eastern Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Eps is great 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 6:04 PM, hudsonvalley21 said: Would that be from the 00z run? Expand 12z 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 EPS is gorgeous. ULL is even more amped than 00z 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 6:09 PM, MJO812 said: Eps is great Expand I assume there will be some epic solutions when the indies come out. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 6:13 PM, brooklynwx99 said: EPS is gorgeous. ULL is even more amped than 00z Expand That is how you draw it up. Textbook. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 The 12z ECM is obviously great, but we gotta watch that eastward slide at the end. The relatively low snow totals in SNE are a small red flag. I'd prefer this to tuck into RI and stall then to slide east so quickly. We're good for now but if the eastward pull happens earlier we get the SNE modeled snow. Then again other guidance (e.g., UK, CMC) hammers SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 6:15 PM, Yanksfan said: I assume there will be some epic solutions when the indies come out. Expand There were a bunch of western solutions that Tip just posted in the NE Forum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 EPS has a few members tucked close to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 6:24 PM, eduggs said: The 12z ECM is obviously great, but we gotta watch that eastward slide at the end. The relatively low snow totals in SNE are a small red flag. I'd prefer this to tuck into RI and stall then to slide east so quickly. We're good for now but if the eastward pull happens earlier we get the SNE modeled snow. Then again other guidance (e.g., UK, CMC) hammers SNE. Expand The good thing is it throws heavy snow pretty far to our west and ratios should be better 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 6:03 PM, SACRUS said: Looks like this run is (10:1) 10 inches from NW - NJ to 18 inches SNJ - ELI. NYC EWR in the 10 - 14 range Kuchera is 14 - 22 inches Expand Sign me up with the 28 jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 6:24 PM, eduggs said: The 12z ECM is obviously great, but we gotta watch that eastward slide at the end. The relatively low snow totals in SNE are a small red flag. I'd prefer this to tuck into RI and stall then to slide east so quickly. We're good for now but if the eastward pull happens earlier we get the SNE modeled snow. Then again other guidance (e.g., UK, CMC) hammers SNE. Expand Could the low snow totals in SNE be from a few members inland in that area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 6:26 PM, Stormlover74 said: The good thing is it throws heavy snow pretty far to our west and ratios should be better Expand Very cold storm on the models 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 6:29 PM, Allsnow said: Could the low snow totals in SNE be from a few members inland in that area? Expand No its because the low goes due east once it reaches Delaware's latitude so the heavy snow doesn't make it to new England. Speaking about the euro op 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 6:31 PM, Stormlover74 said: No its because the low goes due east once it reaches Delaware's latitude so the heavy snow doesn't make it to new England. Speaking about the euro op Expand Sorry, I thought he was talking about the eps. What a odd thing to be concerned about off a op run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 6:29 PM, Allsnow said: Could the low snow totals in SNE be from a few members inland in that area? Expand The low totals from the 12z ECM operational run are due to the SLP not gaining latitude. An ULL (offshoot of PV) forms off the coast and oozes eastward as the system stacks, pulling the whole system eastward. Great position for us, but not great for places further northeast. Many of the EPS individuals gain more latitude and would be great up and down the coast. But a slide east either with a modest event or a complete miss are still very possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 6:35 PM, Allsnow said: Sorry, I thought he was talking about the eps. What a odd thing to be concerned about off a op run Expand It's a definite risk with a pinwheeling ULL pushing into confluence. If the complex is shunted east before mid-level lows mature, the magnitude of event collapses pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I don't have access to the individuals, but from the looks of it I'd estimate at least 25% of them would bring > 1.5" liquid to most of the area. Lots of high impact solutions there!... including several more intense than the operational. But the caveat is that individual ensembles cluster around the parent operational run. So the true chance of >1.5" liquid from this storm is probably less than indicated by the EPS spread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Wpc surface map 4 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 5:40 PM, brooklynwx99 said: yup. thing of beauty. can kinda toss the GFS for this suite IMO Expand Classic Euro bias is too close to the coast in these setups, would NOT toss the GFS. 1 1 1 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 7:01 PM, qg_omega said: Classic Euro bias is too close to the coast in these setups, would NOT toss the GFS. Expand Where are the 70’s you predicted 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 7:01 PM, qg_omega said: Classic Euro bias is too close to the coast in these setups, would NOT toss the GFS. Expand You been horribly wrong all winter 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 On 2/14/2025 at 7:02 PM, Allsnow said: Where are the 70’s you predicted Expand He's a troll but you definitely can't discount a southern slider. We've been horribly burned for years and there's still a lot of time for changes, good and bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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