wdrag Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Thread started due to 3 successive cycles of the EPS/GEFS/CMCE showing 1+" in 24 hours and amounts increasing through the most recent 00z/14 cycle. Will this be relatively benign snowfall only raising our monthly total close to normal, or could it be our first 6+ Central Park event since late Jan 2022? Whatever happens, it looks like powder (presuming it snows an inch or more in CP), with some gusty north-northeast winds. Graphics: 00z/14 cycle WPC D7 and GEFS,CMCDE, EPS 24 hour (10 to 1 ratio) amounts with various ending times late Thu the 20th or early Friday the 21st. Reminder: These ensemble snowfall axis can be in error by over 100 miles on a D6-7 forecast so the modeling provided is not a lock where currently placed. 7PM 2/17/25: adjusted headline to narrow the timing goal post of what has become a much more uncertain event since initially proposed...even with the option of no snow. This despite a strong short wave passage Thursday evening. The GEFS still closes a low through PA while the EPS has weakened to an open - less ominous progressive short wave trough with no significant 850 MB onshore circulation. The 15z/17 SREF, 18z/17 NAM and 12z/17 JMA are the only models with any significant hope for snow as the globals have largely faded southeast since thread inception. The apparently lagged average BOM and 12z/17 WPC still maintain an opportunity for a period of light snow (1/2-4" nw to se on the BOM). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GiantBlizzard2003 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I have a feeling this will be a 6-12 inch storm and biggest of the year to date.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 0z EPS looks great. Lots of left leaning individuals and a robust mean QPF total. GEPS similar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 13 minutes ago, GiantBlizzard2003 said: I have a feeling this will be a 6-12 inch storm and biggest of the year to date.. I have a feeling there will be rendering of shirts and teeth gnashing by say, Monday.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Obviously, the incredible consensus for a major to historic snowstorm from the 4 global Op models, as well as the unusually snowy ensemble means for these models, are fantastic to see, but we know there's no guarantees in this game. Which is why the AIFS has me at least a bit worried, as it's been pretty good on tracks this winter...let's hope the AIFS is just wrong and comes back to a better track and wetter solution than the trend we've seen over the last 24 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 5 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Obviously, the incredible consensus for a major to historic snowstorm from the 4 global Op models, as well as the unusually snowy ensemble means for these models, are fantastic to see, but we know there's no guarantees in this game. Which is why the AIFS has me at least a bit worried, as it's been pretty good on tracks this winter...let's hope the AIFS is just wrong and comes back to a better track and wetter solution than the trend we've seen over the last 24 hours... Outside of 5 days it has been just as jumpy as othy. An whiffed terribly with the DC storm the other day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, Franklin0529 said: Outside of 5 days it has been just as jumpy as othy. An whiffed terribly with the DC storm the other day No guidance is perfect, but it has higher verification scores than any other model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Models are going to jump around the next 3 days. It just not possible to reach consensus and maintain it for 6 days straight. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 This is one time when a stronger transient Southeast Ridge can work to our advantage and help to lessen the influence of the faster Pacific Jet and shortwave coming into the West Coast. It’s definitely a fragile set up where small changes can cause a shift. But at least at this early stage represents the best chance this winter for a heavier snowfall event. New run slightly stronger transient Southeast Ridge and closer EPS mean to the coast Old run a little weaker with more suppressed storm track 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Still alot of time with this one folks… 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Icon is a close miss Image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Total waste of time IMO to monitor this situation until Monday. How many times have we seen this before? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 6 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said: Total waste of time IMO to monitor this situation until Monday. How many times have we seen this before? But yet you’re still here. 4 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 15 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Icon is a close miss Image It's really not a miss unless you're looking for a foot. 3 to 6 is still decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 GFS also ots 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I don't know, would I take a guaranteed 4" snow fall from this system, or trade it for a future bigger possibility? I think I would trade it for what's behind the curtain... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Maybe the SE ridge was not as strong on this model suite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 minutes ago, Dark Star said: I don't know, would I take a guaranteed 4" snow fall from this system, or trade it for a future bigger possibility? I think I would trade it for what's behind the curtain... I'm not sure thats a real possibility though, this is either a big hit or a miss. I don't really see a scenario here where its like a 2-4 inch storm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Cmc is insane 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Canadian is almost perfect 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Cmc is insane 12 -24 inches 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Certainly the biggest risk is going to the western ridge not cooperating, and we get another whiff. 50/50 right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Cmc is insane I would favor the CMC as of right now because the GFS OP was a complete miss too drastic a change in a few hours and its the worst performing model of the bunch - see if the GEFS agrees 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Yup CMC is beautiful 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Basically as long as we do not totally lose the CMC/Euro/GEPS/EPS in the next 48 hours I'd feel very good. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: Basically as long as we do not totally lose the CMC/Euro/GEPS/EPS in the next 48 hours I'd feel very good. I'm excited 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 IMO, a wide range of options remains on the table. Out-to-sea (GFS, AIFS, Graphcast) or a significant storm (12z GGEM, 0z EPS/GEFS) are both plausible outcomes. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Op runs this far out will always be more volatile. Ensemble means are the way. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 15 minutes ago, Dark Star said: I don't know, would I take a guaranteed 4" snow fall from this system, or trade it for a future bigger possibility? I think I would trade it for what's behind the curtain... I want the box Monty, the box! But in all seriousness, I think we need to get thru the system for this weekend, see how things shake out in the atmosphere after that to see how serious this system will be. A significant snow fall or a huge snow event. We haven't had a big snow event in the NYC/LI area in what 3 years? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Basically as long as we do not totally lose the CMC/Euro/GEPS/EPS in the next 48 hours I'd feel very good. exactly ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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