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PD Holiday Weekend Mess DISCO


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I continue to assume that I will get a decent amount of sleet. I’m just hoping for warning level snow, say 6 to 10 inches before the sleet.  But of course this run is just one moment in time and we’ll see what the rest of this cycle brings. I would consider 7 inches of wind.

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Def chekc above H85 in this setup....warm layer is going to be very elevated....750-800mb range.

Just looked at a sounding, Its still snow here but close, Mahk is sleet, But that's on the 84hr Nam fwiw.

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Just now, Kitz Craver said:

How far south does that net gain extend?:yikes:

Snow thump was kind of flaccid on the NAM....but honestly, if you got anything over 2" i'd think it's a net-gainer with that sfc track. 34F and rain isn't going to do much damage. Hope for more like 3-4" with a sfc reflection going SE and you'll be good. But if we start shaving the amounts on the front end and sneak some upper 30s/low 40s into the picture, then it changes.

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Today’s cold has held much longer than I thought. Still sitting at 32 at 10:00am. That may not mean anything or have anything to do with the weekend deal as that one is stronger.. but it’s something to note anyway 

I figured you would be 32 until now. Gonna be a slow rise. 36 here.

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15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Def some sleet for him too....sneaky 800mb warm layer.

Do you think maybe Greenfield is low enough elevation that we get the snow and sleet and maybe avoid most of the freezing rain?  I know we CAD with the best of them here but maybe after the flip we get up to 32.5F

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Put this up earlier on the Feb Discussion page. Would like one of the Mets to answer. Which scenario seems more likely?

Wunderground and Accuweather have more snow on Saturday-Saturday night and colder temps on Sunday 32-34 than earlier. Also, Wunder has 2-3 inches on Sunday, Accu 1-2 and Accu is warning of a potentially serious icing situation. NWS is still calling for temp to rise to 40 with everything going over to rain on Sunday.

What's happening that  Wunder and Accu have gone for lower temps and potential for significan icing? Why is NWS holding out?

I should add that I'm thinking Church (in Southbridge MA) may be cancelled pn Sunday due to clearing issues and that we'll probably be stuck here in Clinton no matter what the weather is down there. Granddaughter's first birthdy party was supposed to be in Church hall after services.

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20 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

FWIW 84 hour NAM still keeps the primary south of SNE which is good .. 

I mean, it is the nam so bouncing around it is its thing, so maybe there is still a chance to keep some pack around here...we are currently adding moisture to it and by tonight will be a glacier

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