dryslot Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Good trends on this one, Looks like the warmth gets pinched off earlier remains more snow now up here. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 21 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Wasn't that the massive sleet bomb? Yes, and IIRC we had two similar storms in a row or close. It was NOT easy to plow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 What an absolute sleet bomb on the GFS and Euro overnight. Snow blow 5" Sunday morning then shovel cement in the evening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Hoping we trend colder and I net gain down here. We have a nice wintry look and feel and I really don’t want to lose it 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 4 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said: Hoping we trend colder and I net gain down here. We have a nice wintry look and feel and I really don’t want to lose it Gonna lost a lot today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 20 minutes ago, dryslot said: Good trends on this one, Looks like the warmth gets pinched off earlier remains more snow now up here. 8-12 for many with a nice crust to harden up for next week and more snow. Enjoy! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Still a significant number of GEFS and EPS members that bring a 980 mb low to Plattsburgh instead of completing the transfer. 12z going to be very interesting. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Gonna lost a lot today Out this way I don't think so. A couple hours in the 40s (maybe) with clouds, and two layers of sleet and freezing rain in the current pack. It's got some staying power, super dense stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 4 minutes ago, UnitedWx said: Out this way I don't think so. A couple hours in the 40s (maybe) with clouds, and two layers of sleet and freezing rain in the current pack. It's got some staying power, super dense stuff Yeah will be fine there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 10 minutes ago, DomNH said: Still a significant number of GEFS and EPS members that bring a 980 mb low to Plattsburgh instead of completing the transfer. 12z going to be very interesting. Yeah nervous about 12z. Concerned it warms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13 Author Share Posted February 13 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Gonna lost a lot today I'll probably hit 40 and lose a couple of inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13 Author Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah nervous about 12z. Concerned it warms. I think my First Call is probably about a worst case right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah will be fine there I don’t think I’ll lose that much. There’s a lot of ice in this 31.2 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Gonna lost a lot today Doubt it's going to make much of a dent here. Got almost 2 inches of heavy stuff here overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'll probably hit 40 and lose a couple of inches. I believe it when I see it. Every melt this winter has been underwhelming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 25 minutes ago, wdrag said: Not sure what you're reading but that's a 60%. chance for 1" NYC CP... even icing near NYC. Probably a pretty decent from end snow, the temps unlikely to get out of the upper 30s-lower 40s NYC on Sunday and potentially serious ice storm I84 hilly terrain with some damage. My concern is the gusty winds for the I84 corridor behind the storm Sunday night-Monday morning taking down ice laden limbs (snow laden well north of I84). OBS thread for Saturday event will probably post at 7AM Saturday. I may run it as an OBS thread for the front end wintry and then tack on wind damage for Sun night-Monday, and whatever Feb melted water equivalent totals you have for Feb at that time (through the 16th) in that thread. From NYC forum 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 11 minutes ago, kdxken said: Doubt it's going to make much of a dent here. Got almost 2 inches of heavy stuff here overnight. No I mean srn areas. Been pouring here. Whatever is left will be bulletproof this evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Gonna lost a lot today Hopefully not too much. Wall to wall coverage currently about 5.5” high water content stuff 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'll probably hit 40 and lose a couple of inches. Happens to the best of us. 14 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 4 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said: Hopefully not too much. Wall to wall coverage currently about 5.5” high water content stuff What will save some pack in parts of this area today will be keeping the clouds. Looks like it should stay cloudy much of the day. Plus ground temp quite cold, big plus. Last night had the driveway covered within 15 minutes of when the snow started falling. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 33 minutes ago, DomNH said: Still a significant number of GEFS and EPS members that bring a 980 mb low to Plattsburgh instead of completing the transfer. 12z going to be very interesting. thank you for the cautionary note as I become overexcited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, UnitedWx said: What will save some pack in parts of this area today will be keeping the clouds. Looks like it should stay cloudy much of the day. Plus ground temp quite cold, big plus. Last night had the driveway covered within 15 minutes of when the snow started falling. Yup keep that sun away and we won’t see grass 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said: thank you for the cautionary note as I become overexcited LOL. Some good trends, but we need to see what happens with all of today's runs, and even the overnights coming up tonight before we get too excited. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah nervous about 12z. Concerned it warms. I’m prepared mentally for locking in a warm up 12z LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 You need a lot of time above 36-37F or so to start denting the pack when you’re socked in clouds and precip like today. Otherwise it will mostly just absorb the extra water when it’s mid-30s and not melt off much. Far southern and southeastern areas that spend a chunk of the afternoon above 40F will lose some (prob not enough to wipe it out) but it will probably be fairly minimal elsewhere. Anyways, this weekends storm can still turn to mostly shit…if we reverse the overnight trend then it’s back to where we were yesterday at 12z. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Heights over western N/A are the challenge. This situation leading and during the 20th needs that component to improve, otherwise this will be another enhanced modeling challenge over the week with both spatial-temporal aspect, and just spacial synoptic interference issues. It's a bit frustrating because from what I am seeing, the basal hemisphere is a little less compressed ( less is definitely better! ). You can see in the 00z 500 mb height cinema of all three, Euro/CMC/GFS, how the SPV fragment really tries to tuck into the S/stream, but because the flow geometry lacks that meridian restoring ( better ridge west --> constructive depth feedback in the east), the situation ends up stretched looking with the triggered cyclone escaping ENE in the CMC/GFS. The only real difference between the Euro and these misses is the Euro actually gets the thread through the needle's eye on 00z stab. But again ... the flow overall is -d(gradient), and so if a ridge were to materialize over the west, that whole downstream situation would be slower/more proficiency compared to these bottle rocket smear troughs of the last month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 32 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'll probably hit 40 and lose a couple of inches. not my experience 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Heights over western N/A are the challenge. This situation leading and during the 20th needs that component to improve, otherwise this will be another enhanced modeling challenge over the week with both spatial-temporal aspect, and just spacial synoptic interference issues. It's a bit frustrating because from what I am seeing, the basal hemisphere is a little less compressed ( less is definitely better! ). You can see in the 00z 500 mb height cinema of all three, Euro/CMC/GFS, how the SPV fragment really tries to tuck into the S/stream, but because the flow geometry lacks that meridian restoring ( better ridge west --> constructive depth feedback in the east), the situation ends up stretched looking with the triggered cyclone escaping ENE in the CMC/GFS. The only real difference between the Euro and these misses is the Euro actually gets the thread through the needle's eye on 00z stab. But again ... the flow overall is -d(gradient), and so if a ridge were to materialize over the west, that whole downstream situation would be slower/more proficiency compared to these bottle rocket smear troughs of the last month wrong thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 55 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Gonna lost a lot today Melt it all down to the grass. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 46 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah nervous about 12z. Concerned it warms. It’s gonna warm —deal. How was that? Did I do a good Scooter imitation? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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