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PD Holiday Weekend Mess DISCO


40/70 Benchmark
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Just now, dendrite said:

Yeah we’ll see how it goes. I’m worried about the H75-8 warmth and the cold wedge overperforming. But it’s definitely looking more like 6” is in the cards here. 

You are basically always right upon the mid level up here.

you k know your warm tongues.

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29 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This could end up being a pretty epic month in my hood...I have been mentioning this week this month has already been pretty enjoyable for me. It has kind of reminded me of January 2009....no huge snow events, or frigid weather, but consistently cold with a chain of moderate snow events. Good retention month that seldom hot freezing.

Likewise in my area, Sure there's not 3' OTG, but certainly mid winter appeal. We've even had snow stuck to the trees for several days, not typical even in great winters

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Yeah 06z was a nice hit here for front end snow.  Never gets ORH above freezing either. Just need to not regress on the overnight trends at 12z….small wobbles are fine but noticeable jumps will have a hit impact. 

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I’m looking at the amped teles and UL vort, and artctic/gulf potential phasing here and wondering how this isn’t a sub 985 low on guidance somewhere in the vicinity of Pittsburgh….The BZ is primed.

This looks like our strongest storm in a while with plenty of mid level dynamics as it enters our region…

Nothing points to progressive either.

This should have the wave space for the full synoptic wave development—mid level occlusion before it ejects east.

I could see the evolution changing quite a bit from here.

 

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

VD 2007 remained cold....CF got up to Reading, MA near rt 128.....stayed below freezing inland from there.

I stayed in the teens for most of that storm. Think I topped out in low 20s. This one won’t be as cold but there could be a sneaky very high-gradient CF up near your area. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I stayed in the teens for most of that storm. Think I topped out in low 20s. This one won’t be as cold but there could be a sneaky very high-gradient CF up near your area. 

Yea, that one had a legit arctic antecedent airmass...that season flipped on a dime, despite the coast getting porked.

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