MJO812 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, CoastalWx said: It's warmer than the euro. Went from a few inches here to barely anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Its really to bad we can't get other modeling to look like the 12z CMC, Primary into PA and makes the handoff to a low south of LI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Went from a few inches here to barely anything. Still good here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Two inches of cold rain after some wintry mix is a nightmare recipe around here....there's so much ice already and then Monday flash freeze....good lord Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's warmer than the euro. Yeah euro is def colder than GFS and has been for a couple of runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Gfs on its own . Probably not a good idea to follow it . CMC looks similar to Reggie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Well its been a minute since we had to deal with this really messy stuff around here so I figure we are due Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Unless you have a good surface high in south eastern Canada, you don’t get an early transfer with the best baroclinicty and vorticity to the west. It wants to bend back. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Looks icy here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 14 minutes ago, dryslot said: Its really to bad we can't get other modeling to look like the 12z CMC, Primary into PA and makes the handoff to a low south of LI. CMC has been pretty good this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 18 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Looks icy here Today’s trends will be interesting. I’m really hoping this doesn’t become a bonkers primary that floods warm air all the way to Concord NH. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 It’s going to take a lot more than this to warm sector CON. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 12z UKMET looks like 3" of snow followed by a 1/2" of sleet mixed with .3" of accretion making whatever clings like glued sand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 58 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: CMC has been pretty good this year Was awful in the Jan 11 phasing fiasco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Euro colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro colder Yuo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Euro is rain to MHT by midday Sunday other than some ice in the favored CAD spots. Thump looks better for the Pike region than the GFS though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 5 minutes ago, DomNH said: Euro is rain to MHT by midday Sunday other than some ice in the favored CAD spots. Thump looks better for the Pike region than the GFS though. Wouldn't suprise me if its 32-34F for a time. True CF looks like it'll get pretty far north midday Sunday, before it crashes PM. Close enough small shifts will matter locally over the next 24 hours though, whether it's 31-32 or 33-34. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 8 minutes ago, DomNH said: Euro is rain to MHT by midday Sunday other than some ice in the favored CAD spots. Thump looks better for the Pike region than the GFS though. I’ll be surprised if the CAD doesn’t hold stronger than that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Gfs gonna lose another one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: I’ll be surprised if the CAD doesn’t hold stronger than that. Would generally think sfc will trend a bit colder, but not necessarily aloft in lead up, but well see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: I’ll be surprised if the CAD doesn’t hold stronger than that. Euro was way too warm with the last one in SNH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Layman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 7 minutes ago, dendrite said: I’ll be surprised if the CAD doesn’t hold stronger than that. 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro was way too warm with the last one in SNH. Thoughts/predictions where the warmth will ultimately stall out pushing north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Euro was way too warm with the last one in SNH. I think we’ll see the sfc reflection do some small messenger shuffles in the final 24 hours as the models “see” the syrupy airmass. Doesn’t mean we won’t torch aloft up to MWN but we often see the sfc getting shoved a bit SE as it tries to run into that arctic brick wall. I also noticed the 3k NAM was really struggling to bring sfc front north even when the 12k was trying to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 10 minutes ago, dendrite said: I’ll be surprised if the CAD doesn’t hold stronger than that. Yeah, I'm guessing the reality on Sunday is the CF makes it near ASH before it retreats but probably not further than that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, DomNH said: Yeah, I'm guessing the reality on Sunday is the CF makes it near ASH before it retreats but probably not further than that. This looks a bit suspect to me given the climo of SE NH on CFs and CAD 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I think we’ll see the sfc reflection do some small messenger shuffles in the final 24 hours as the models “see” the syrupy airmass. Doesn’t mean we won’t torch aloft up to MWN but we often see the sfc getting shoved a bit SE as it tries to run into that arctic brick wall. I also noticed the 3k NAM was really struggling to bring sfc front north even when the 12k was trying to. Euro had 40’s and 50’s into CNE yesterday too. The lean on this is cold, ice cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 The squeeze will be on, Your not budging those temps up here. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Always hedge cold in these situations. It’s kind of like when models give you 84 with dews on 5/20 and you’re wondering why you’re rotting at 49. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3k NAM gone wild with the thump too. 4-8'' to snizzle to a few hours of 34F rain is a decent net-gainer for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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