CoastalWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Looks more amped to me. Yeah he’s drunk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Reggie, on the other hand, is less amped than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 ICON is worse, Sleet to Ste Pamhille. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Looks more amped to me. primary is definitely east of 18z might not be much but it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Reggie, on the other hand, is less amped than 18z. Love it. Doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 It’s more amped it’s not a disaster;it’s moving too fast 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AstronomyEnjoyer Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Germans bringing the juice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah he’s drunk east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: east It’s not just about low placement. The whole thing is warmer and more amped 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: east Look at those thicknesses and ptype… Don’t worry about 10 mile shifts in sfc low. Look at the rest of the setup. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 You know things are bad when we’re arguing over the ICON. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Look at those thicknesses and ptype… Don’t worry about 10 mile shifts in sfc low. Look at the rest of the setup. Or if he wants to focus on the low, it’s steadily getting deeper every run the last three cycles, too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Also think the ptype algorithm is garbage and that’s mostly sleet not zr, but I don’t have ICON soundings. Nor would I want them lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Were getting the primary going over the picnic tables. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Or if he wants to focus on the low, it’s steadily getting deeper every run the last three cycles, too Yeah and take a look at how much further north the lower pressure isobars poke into NY state than the 18z run. Btw, despite the early trends at 00z (admittedly mixed with rgem not going north)….I kind of agree with you that this system is pretty ripe for the primary to correct SE a bit on some of these runs as we close inside 48h. We have a pretty sludgy/molasses airmass to the north…true arctic stuff. Gonna be tough to really drill the primary up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 10 minutes ago, DomNH said: Also think the ptype algorithm is garbage and that’s mostly sleet not zr, but I don’t have ICON soundings. Nor would I want them lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 May not make many changes to First Call. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 GFS looks a touch less amped than 18z too through 54h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 976mb into western NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Best forcing up the St Lawrence Valley, and across SE SNE. Montreal looks good being just NW of the mid level lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I think I’d take the GFS even down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 that's a cold run of the GFS at surface .. looks like my area stays below freezing for the duration Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: I think I’d take the GFS even down here. Def a bit colder than 18z. Easily a net-gainer for a large part of SNE. I’d prob take and run. But I’m hopeful we get a little easing SE as guidance feels the sludge to the north…but maybe they already have it correct, not sure. But one can hope for the messenger shuffles as we close in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Def a bit colder than 18z. Easily a net-gainer for a large part of SNE. I’d prob take and run. But I’m hopeful we get a little easing SE as guidance feels the sludge to the north…but maybe they already have it correct, not sure. But one can hope for the messenger shuffles as we close in. hopefully we keep increasing qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 The surface temps on the GFS are ridiculous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: The surface temps on the GFS are ridiculous You’re in aww? Or you don’t believe them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Def a bit colder than 18z. Easily a net-gainer for a large part of SNE. I’d prob take and run. But I’m hopeful we get a little easing SE as guidance feels the sludge to the north…but maybe they already have it correct, not sure. But one can hope for the messenger shuffles as we close in. For me the main takeaway is that the GFS started to play ball and tick colder, at least for now. Hopefully the Euro continues to move in our direction as well. Still a substantial amount of uncertainty with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 10 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Best forcing up the St Lawrence Valley, and across SE SNE. Montreal looks good being just NW of the mid level lows. Yeah, not sure what Wunderground is seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 47 minutes ago, dryslot said: We’re getting the primary going over the picnic tables. Does this warrant a map for ye HCS crew? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AstronomyEnjoyer Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 The American models need to step up their game and actually assign p-types to QPF. The way vendors are forced to essentially guess what was falling based off of frames that are spaced 3 hours apart is silly. You get that ridiculous tiger striping artifact as a result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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