SouthCoastMA Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 RGEM clown range had a decent thump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Gfs today had 40’s up north of the pike. Not close to reality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 I don't hate the overall advisory thump to slotted crap trend. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The Mesos like Nams are going to handle this cold much better than the coarse grained GFS. Buyer beware Nam isn’t much for you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 GFS is still wedging very strongly. It's def a bit more zonked with primary but that confluence to the northeast is strong, so once again places like ORH never crack freezing. Front end snow was a little better than 12z too....the 12z run was pretty flaccid....moreso than the other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Nam isn’t much for you I'm not sure there is enough QPF that falls as straight ZR to make this a larger impact icing event. There will def be some icing, but it seems like mostly less than 3 tenths to me. I guess if we develop the secondary a little sooner, then maybe there's a narrow zone for more ala the Icon model. Developing the secondary sooner will also help sleet go further south too for longer before the flip....so it's hard to get high end icing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 a 3-5" or 4-6" thump from this would be a win SOP given models were sending cockatoos to Concord yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Nam isn’t much for you Hard to argue the king of CT MC Ryan Hammertime 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Gfs today had 40’s up north of the pike. Not close to reality Euro was the warmest model for today over the past couple of days. Everywhere is gonna spike near fropa, but euro was blasting 40s by to CON by 21z on a 48hr forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, wx2fish said: Euro was the warmest model for today over the past couple of days. Everywhere is gonna spike near fropa, but euro was blasting 40s by to CON by 21z on a 48hr forecast I don’t think any models had the cold wedging all day today. A brief fropa spike is coming but they all busted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 at this point our best hope up here I think is probably a strong primary that creates a more intense WAA thump, maybe 6-8, then a crust and a dry slot doesn’t seem that there’s going to be a wholesale change, but maybe some messenger ticks can help us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 5 minutes ago, wx2fish said: Euro was the warmest model for today over the past couple of days. Everywhere is gonna spike near fropa, but euro was blasting 40s by to CON by 21z on a 48hr forecast Yeah it tried for 50s here I think at one point, lol. Most runs were more tame. But it can get a little happy with the erosion of CAD sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Hard to argue the king of CT MC Ryan Hammertime Even so 0.25-0.5 probably won’t do the damage trick for you. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 In general toss the warm sectoring in these setups winter and summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Hard to argue the king of CT MC Ryan Hammertime There’s def potential for good ice but I’d like to see QPF after the snow thump be a little stronger OR the CAD hold really tough at the sfc due to earlier mesolow. The euro had like 0.75-1.00 of QPF over about 18 hours there after you flip from snow to sleet…and if a lot of that can fall as ZR and accrete efficiently (either light fall rates or sfc temps in the upper 20s), then it gets a lot more interesting for something in the 3/8ths range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, weathafella said: Even so 0.25-0.5 probably won’t do the damage trick for you. When you get near 1/2” accretion it sure does. Obviously above that is when it goes up even more. What I learned in the zr storm here 2yrs ago though.. is with that amount of ice on trees.. and you rip 50-60 mph wind gusts like we’ll see Monday.. it’s probably going to be a big issue for a fairly large area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: When you get near 1/2” accretion it sure does. Obviously above that is when it goes up even more. What I learned in the zr storm here 2yrs ago though.. is with that amount of ice on trees.. and you rip 50-60 mph wind gusts like we’ll see Monday.. it’s probably going to be a big issue for a fairly large area And <0.5" of flat ice accretion isn't going to cause any widespread issues. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: When you get near 1/2” accretion it sure does. Obviously above that is when it goes up even more. What I learned in the zr storm here 2yrs ago though.. is with that amount of ice on trees.. and you rip 50-60 mph wind gusts like we’ll see Monday.. it’s probably going to be a big issue for a fairly large area Yeah the wind Monday should be interesting. Not sure it’s impactful but we’ll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: And <0.5" of flat ice accretion isn't going to cause any widespread issues. He's gone wild. He's the king of setting up for disappointments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: And <0.5" of flat ice accretion isn't going to cause any widespread issues. With huge winds it will . I never thought it had that much of an impact until I went thru that awesome event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, CoastalWx said: He's gone wild. He's the king of setting up for disappointments. How will I get disappointed? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 34 minutes ago, weathafella said: Kind of illustrates how tough it is to get an ice storm in New England. Up north you’ll get snow to sleet but in most of sne snow to sleet to insignificant ice to rain or drizzle January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, CoastalWx said: He's gone wild. He's the king of setting up for disappointments. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: How will I get disappointed? Hasn't everyone explained it? Between QPF and lack of good winds advecting in some lower Tds, not sure how much damage they'll be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 "Ekster, how could you not put me in an ice storm warning.." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Hasn't everyone explained it? Between QPF and lack of good winds advecting in some lower Tds, not sure how much damage they'll be. I still vividly recall Mets on this board saying that event 2 years ago would not have much zr and there would not be any power or damage issues. And obviously there were in a small area. I’m not guaranteeing anything. But I will be very surprised if there’s not some significant issues come Monday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 36 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Gfs today had 40’s up north of the pike. Not close to reality I only hit 39 south of the pike for a high and back down to 36 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Why can’t I get those 60s. Damn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This isn’t that lol . That was a full blown nor’easter . I had no idea. SWey in Se MA furnaced like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13 Author Share Posted February 13 26 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: at this point our best hope up here I think is probably a strong primary that creates a more intense WAA thump, maybe 6-8, then a crust and a dry slot doesn’t seem that there’s going to be a wholesale change, but maybe some messenger ticks can help us No chance its going to evolve into a pure snow event there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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