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PD Holiday Weekend Mess DISCO


40/70 Benchmark
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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Go with the NAM

Yes I’m hedging heavily toward NAM. We’ll know around 10pm if it’s more correct or not based on the sleet line in CT. It usually is better to hedge faster flip in these. Only thing that is kind of different here is it has the warmest layer in the 825-850 region overnight. That is a good tick lower than we typically see…usually I’m looking at 750-800 layer…occasionally even 725. 

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Only thing I’m not a fan on regarding the sleet racing in, is that a lot of the lift is under the DGZ. If we could just slam good VV‘s into that area, it would do a lot to at least try to hold off. 

HRRR is about 1 hour too slow with the changeover based on current obs.. 

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Temperatures at the surface along the coastal plain will quickly
warm above freezing around sunrise tomorrow morning, allowing sleet
to change over to rain with minimal freezing rain concerns. Further
west across the interior, especially in low spots across the high
terrain, cold air will struggle to scour out. This will lead to
possibly several hours of freezing rain, where ice accumulation of
trace to .35 inches is possible.  Any freezing rain combined with
the previously fallen heavy wet snow will lead to snow/ice load
issues on trees and power lines. Isolated power outages are likely
by Sunday afternoon and could become more widespread as strong winds
enter the region with an approaching cold front.
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