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PD Holiday Weekend Mess DISCO


40/70 Benchmark
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  On 2/15/2025 at 7:26 PM, CoastalWx said:

Hrrr is solid here.  I don’t buy 6” yet but it’s been consistent.

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What's up with the evolution with the big snow hole over BGR and down east but good snow down in CNE. Interesting is all, still hits us based on elevation up here in Piscataquis county how storms typically develop 

sn10_acc-imp.us_ne.png

 

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  On 2/15/2025 at 8:47 PM, TheMainer said:

What's up with the evolution with the big snow hole over BGR and down east but good snow down in CNE. Interesting is all, still hits us based on elevation up here in Piscataquis county 

sn10_acc-imp.us_ne.png

 

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The numbers are overdone in the interior. I’ve seen this on multiple vendor sites with the HRRR. The sleet won’t be 10:1.

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  On 2/15/2025 at 8:51 PM, dendrite said:

The numbers are overdone in the interior. I’ve seen this on multiple vendor sites with the HRRR. The sleet won’t be 10:1.

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That makes sense for down South of you, I agree with the evolution up here at 800 feet and well inland from the coast I expect 8 inches minimum, hopefully not disappointed

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CAR dropped the warnings down to 7-10 inches for my house in the valley, 12-20 (but really 20 is north of Moosehead lake up in the big woods) at my lake lot/groomer garage, either way, going to be epic snowmobiling when I get back to Maine on Tuesday, probably best since 2018-19.

StormTotalSnow.jpg

 

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  On 2/15/2025 at 8:54 PM, TheMainer said:

That makes sense for down South of you, I agree with the evolution up here at 800 feet and well inland from the coast I expect 8 inches minimum, hopefully not disappointed

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So I think I found the HRRR issue. It will layer multiple precip types at the same gridpoint if applicable. So there’s a period where it’s trying to paint snow and sleet in the interior of MA and NH during the morning so the vendors are calling that 10:1 even though it’s probably closer to 3:1 sleet ratios in reality. That weird cutoff in Maine is an area where the model is showing a snow+sleet/plain sleet cutoff in the afternoon so NW of that line the vendors are painting at 10:1 and SE of it they stop the accumulations.

Here’s the ptype for 18z and 00z tomorrow.

image.png

image.png

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  On 2/15/2025 at 8:51 PM, dendrite said:

The numbers are overdone in the interior. I’ve seen this on multiple vendor sites with the HRRR. The sleet won’t be 10:1.

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Much better to go old school and look for the timing of the flip and then print out total model QPF at that hour. 
 

Hrrr flips the pike between 10-11z and this is modeled QPF through 11z…I think it’s a little weenie-ish though…gotta a feeling it might be closer to the NAM 08z timeframe, so I’d shave a couple of inches off the hrrr here…not buying 6-8”

image.thumb.png.84805a5ddfc1adb7b2dadb809e5d4575.png

 

 

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  On 2/15/2025 at 9:08 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Much better to go old school and look for the timing of the flip and then print out total model QPF at that hour. 
 

Hrrr flips the pike between 10-11z and this is modeled QPF through 11z…I think it’s a little weenie-ish though…gotta a feeling it might be closer to the NAM 08z timeframe, so I’d shave a couple of inches off the hrrr here…not buying 6-8”

image.thumb.png.84805a5ddfc1adb7b2dadb809e5d4575.png

 

 

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I agree. I always look for the time of the switch and just do 10:1 before it and 3:1 during the sleet period. 

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  On 2/15/2025 at 9:08 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Much better to go old school and look for the timing of the flip and then print out total model QPF at that hour. 
 

Hrrr flips the pike between 10-11z and this is modeled QPF through 11z…I think it’s a little weenie-ish though…gotta a feeling it might be closer to the NAM 08z timeframe, so I’d shave a couple of inches off the hrrr here…not buying 6-8”

image.thumb.png.84805a5ddfc1adb7b2dadb809e5d4575.png

 

 

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Are we still snowing here at midnight or no ?

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