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PD Holiday Weekend Mess DISCO


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45 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

it is, but I have found often more times than not the map posted by BTV is way more accurate for my locale

But doesn’t Burlington just take Albany’s map for southern Vermont and tack it onto their own? They aren’t making a separate forecast from Albany.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Hrrr is solid here.  I don’t buy 6” yet but it’s been consistent.

What's up with the evolution with the big snow hole over BGR and down east but good snow down in CNE. Interesting is all, still hits us based on elevation up here in Piscataquis county how storms typically develop 

sn10_acc-imp.us_ne.png

 

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1 minute ago, TheMainer said:

What's up with the evolution with the big snow hole over BGR and down east but good snow down in CNE. Interesting is all, still hits us based on elevation up here in Piscataquis county 

sn10_acc-imp.us_ne.png

 

The numbers are overdone in the interior. I’ve seen this on multiple vendor sites with the HRRR. The sleet won’t be 10:1.

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

The numbers are overdone in the interior. I’ve seen this on multiple vendor sites with the HRRR. The sleet won’t be 10:1.

That makes sense for down South of you, I agree with the evolution up here at 800 feet and well inland from the coast I expect 8 inches minimum, hopefully not disappointed

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CAR dropped the warnings down to 7-10 inches for my house in the valley, 12-20 (but really 20 is north of Moosehead lake up in the big woods) at my lake lot/groomer garage, either way, going to be epic snowmobiling when I get back to Maine on Tuesday, probably best since 2018-19.

StormTotalSnow.jpg

 

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4 minutes ago, klw said:

just started here as well.

Just started here too. I fully expect this storm to way overproduce since the new snowblower that I bought yesterday and that was supposed to be delivered yesterday still isn’t here. We’ll probably end up with 2 feet now. 

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13 minutes ago, TheMainer said:

That makes sense for down South of you, I agree with the evolution up here at 800 feet and well inland from the coast I expect 8 inches minimum, hopefully not disappointed

So I think I found the HRRR issue. It will layer multiple precip types at the same gridpoint if applicable. So there’s a period where it’s trying to paint snow and sleet in the interior of MA and NH during the morning so the vendors are calling that 10:1 even though it’s probably closer to 3:1 sleet ratios in reality. That weird cutoff in Maine is an area where the model is showing a snow+sleet/plain sleet cutoff in the afternoon so NW of that line the vendors are painting at 10:1 and SE of it they stop the accumulations.

Here’s the ptype for 18z and 00z tomorrow.

image.png

image.png

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14 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The numbers are overdone in the interior. I’ve seen this on multiple vendor sites with the HRRR. The sleet won’t be 10:1.

Much better to go old school and look for the timing of the flip and then print out total model QPF at that hour. 
 

Hrrr flips the pike between 10-11z and this is modeled QPF through 11z…I think it’s a little weenie-ish though…gotta a feeling it might be closer to the NAM 08z timeframe, so I’d shave a couple of inches off the hrrr here…not buying 6-8”

image.thumb.png.84805a5ddfc1adb7b2dadb809e5d4575.png

 

 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Much better to go old school and look for the timing of the flip and then print out total model QPF at that hour. 
 

Hrrr flips the pike between 10-11z and this is modeled QPF through 11z…I think it’s a little weenie-ish though…gotta a feeling it might be closer to the NAM 08z timeframe, so I’d shave a couple of inches off the hrrr here…not buying 6-8”

image.thumb.png.84805a5ddfc1adb7b2dadb809e5d4575.png

 

 

I agree. I always look for the time of the switch and just do 10:1 before it and 3:1 during the sleet period. 

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Much better to go old school and look for the timing of the flip and then print out total model QPF at that hour. 
 

Hrrr flips the pike between 10-11z and this is modeled QPF through 11z…I think it’s a little weenie-ish though…gotta a feeling it might be closer to the NAM 08z timeframe, so I’d shave a couple of inches off the hrrr here…not buying 6-8”

image.thumb.png.84805a5ddfc1adb7b2dadb809e5d4575.png

 

 

Are we still snowing here at midnight or no ?

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