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PD Holiday Weekend Mess DISCO


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4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

A ton of liquid in CT. This will be known for its flooding and winds south of 84..

it's going to have to really rip and pour because it looks like the meat is moving quick before the slot and ZR drizzle, perhaps a few inches of SN and a couple inches of IP would be the bulk....I don't want an inch of ZR or just plain RN...

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18 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

A ton of liquid in CT. This will be known for its flooding and winds south of 84..

That's what I'm afraid of.  With the frozen ground the rain is going to have no where to go except to pool in my yard, basement, etc...

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18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You’re nuts. You’ll spend most of Sunday 33

Heavy rain at 33 is still going to run off. If you can’t freeze it or absorb it, it’s gonna produce some localized flooding.
 

Hell, even during the historic ice storm in 2008, the street was like a river running down it on winter hill when I was outside around midnight while trees were starting to snap. It’s because it was coming down so hard that the accretion rate wasn’t super efficient and we were losing a ton of QPF to runoff. We had like 3” of QPF in that storm but it didn’t all accrete as ice…and that was at 30-31F…when it’s 33-34 you aren’t accreting anything. 

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Me old standard NAM FOUS from 18z was tick colder.  The triangulation method implied 5 or 6" of snow along Rt 2 west of 95 on on out, then a mix of IP and ZR to some .3" accretion before ending, but could be higher ice if less IP

Exactly BOX is drunk

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Heavy rain at 33 is still going to run off. If you can’t freeze it or absorb it, it’s gonna produce some localized flooding.
 

Hell, even during the historic ice storm in 2008, the street was like a river running down it on winter hill when I was outside around midnight while trees were starting to snap. It’s because it was coming down so hard that the accretion rate wasn’t super efficient and we were losing a ton of QPF to runoff. We had like 3” of QPF in that storm but it didn’t all accrete as ice…and that was at 30-31F…when it’s 33-34 you aren’t accreting anything. 

I understand all that but he is a huge HRRR guy. He saw that earlier 12z run of 50’s and envisioned all his snow wiped out . That is not happening there. He’s got 5” of glacier . Will add 2-5” then some ice and then a cold rain . Farther north at 31.4/31.8 it’ll be ice 

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I understand all that but he is a huge HRRR guy. He saw that earlier 12z run of 50’s and envisioned all his snow wiped out . That is not happening there. He’s got 5” of glacier . Will add 2-5” then some ice and then a cold rain . Farther north at 31.4/31.8 it’ll be ice 

lol 90% of guidance spikes to 50 up to 84. I don’t hug any models just stating what I see. Also all guidance has 1-2” of actual liquid rain down here. I envision several hours over 45 with a spike to 50-55 in spots. 

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3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

lol 90% of guidance spikes to 50 up to 84. I don’t hug any models just stating what I see. Also all guidance has 1-2” of actual liquid rain down here. I envision several hours over 45 with a spike to 50-55 in spots. 

Only the HRRR did that. And it’s cooling and flatter .NAM went way colder , Euro cold , Reggie cold. You’ll stay low - mid 30’s. Rest easy 

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28 minutes ago, metagraphica said:

That's what I'm afraid of.  With the frozen ground the rain is going to have no where to go except to pool in my yard, basement, etc...

That happened to me one year in December, bad cold snap, ground was frozen solid, and we got 2-3 inches of rain, only time I ever had water in my basement.

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3 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

There’s a decent pack building in the mountains. 

I'm heading up to Eustis in the morning, There looking at 12-16", They got 8" yesterday up there, Going to ride over to 15 mile stream in West Forks for lunch.

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