Damage In Tolland Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yes the 06z skynet was really cold. You’d never crack freezing if it verified. Not sure I buy a solution that cold but we’ll see what the real models do in a bit. It looked like some EPS members had that same look. At least a handful anyway . I’m not thinking it goes above 32 north of maybe the Merritt until maybe right at fropa for a brief time. And that’s questionable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 AI was too cold in the last event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 7 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Thump turning later and lighter especially for SW half of state, and mid level warming still on track for 9-11pm.. Further NE you go the better which is typical , just more so in this case Meh, as modeled now, I will do better than 1” unless future runs reveal an all out torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I hope you get the ice you want but this seems likely to be a longer period of snow and sleet and then light freezing drizzle. At least up this way. I think .25-.50 of ice is pretty good idea from ORH south . Less up by you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I remember the Feb 28, 1995 ice storm stayed on the trees for like 4 days afterward and that was the first few days of March. It did stay below freezing though but there was some sun too…luckily not much wind behind that one. I think the icing will be significantly less in this one versus 1995 though…this is going to be a lot of snow/sleet and then prob intermittent showery ZR and if the mesolow isn’t well-defined (ala NAM solutions), it will just morph into an in-situ icing event where it creeps to 32.1F after maybe a quarter inch of ice (if that). We had a decent one Dec ‘17 before the brutal cold the second half of the month. That ice hung on for like 2 weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Reggie going wild on front end. Cold still too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 ICON looks good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 12z ICON has 2 to 3 inches of qpf in some areas so much for not having enough qpf for something damaging if its cold enough 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 6 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said: Meh, as modeled now, I will do better than 1” unless future runs reveal an all out torch. Where are you in CT, reasons Im pessimistic is lack of good thump until NE of us, and the mid level warmth racing in, I don't really see any heavy rates tomorrow until we torch the mid levels and get heavier showery precip.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I think .25-.50 of ice is pretty good idea from ORH south . Less up by you You may be towards the .25" end of that but that would still be impressive after several inches of snow and sleet. Pack locked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 27 minutes ago, tavwtby said: mid 60's on the delmarva while we p type our way to whatever we get... Great, we jackpot in the 34 degree snizzle before they clean up next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Where are you in CT, reasons Im pessimistic is lack of good thump until NE of us, and the mid level warmth racing in, I don't really see any heavy rates tomorrow until we torch the mid levels and get heavier showery precip.. Meriden Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, Kitz Craver said: Meriden Time will tell, there's a split camp, you have a good shot of staying colder for longer.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Two questions: 1) Does anyone place any value on the Accumulated Positive Snow Depth Change on Trop Tdbits (or on Pivotal) for the GFS? 2) Does that output also include sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 28 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: After yesterday, the snow banks in Greenfield are already granite. Throw down another 4-6" of frozen cement and by Monday street parking will be non-existent downtown. They don't remove the snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 ICON is such a weenie solution .. it has been spitting out way more QPF than other model (at least 0z, 6z, 12z runs). I have my doubts on widespread 2"-3" QPF from this system in SNE - let alone over 1" between 18z and 0z Sunday .. and then there is that cold tuck at the end that drops temps into the 10s for N/NE MA lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Two questions: 1) Does anyone place any vlue on the Accumulated Positive Snow Depth Change on Trop Tdbits for the GFS? 2) Does that output also include sleet? Positive snow depth change I’ve found to be almost universally too conservative if you’re forecasting actual snowfall but it’s semi-useful to use as a floor scenario. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 minutes ago, ma blizzard said: ICON is such a weenie solution .. it has been spitting out way more QPF than other model (at least 0z, 6z, 12z runs). I have my doubts on widespread 2"-3" QPF from this system in SNE - let alone over 1" between 18z and 0z Sunday .. and then there is that cold tuck at the end that drops temps into the 10s for N/NE MA lol models have increased since yesterday though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AstronomyEnjoyer Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 9 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Two questions: 1) Does anyone place any value on the Accumulated Positive Snow Depth Change on Trop Tdbits (or on Pivotal) for the GFS? 2) Does that output also include sleet? For this event I imagine much of the displayed accumulation on the pos depth change is from sleet that has been counted as snowfall. I don't think I should expect the 14" of snow it's showing for my location. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Positive snow depth change I’ve found to be almost universally too conservative if you’re forecasting actual snowfall but it’s semi-useful to use as a floor scenario. Well said and agree 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said: For this event I imagine much of the displayed accumulation on the pos depth change is from sleet that has been counted as snowfall. I don't think I should expect the 14" of snow it's showing for my location. Yeah... that is similar to what I am thinking as well. I think it is using sleet as snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 6 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said: For this event I imagine much of the displayed accumulation on the pos depth change is from sleet that has been counted as snowfall. I don't think I should expect the 14" of snow it's showing for my location. Tropical tidbits maps usually tell you if it including sleet. You can toss the map if it’s an event with lots of sleet like this one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 38 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: AI was too cold in the last event. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 We need Messenger to start working his magic. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheMainer Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: We need Messenger to start working his magic. I'd like a 50-75 mile shift south at least, put the bullseye right over our heads. We get even 8 inches and our whole trail system is gonna be beautiful, and we can ride south the Skowvegas and other places we haven't for years. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 37 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Time will tell, there's a split camp, you have a good shot of staying colder for longer.. That's my hope too. I'm north of Meriden right on the Farmington line. I'm guessing we'll stay colder as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 GFS looks a little more amped and warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, CoastalWx said: GFS looks a little more amped and warmer. had a slightly better cold press to begin with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GFS looks a little more amped and warmer. Yep euro wins again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, MJO812 said: Yep euro wins again It's warmer than the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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