WinterWolf Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: For me the main takeaway is that the GFS started to play ball and tick colder, at least for now. Hopefully the Euro continues to move in our direction as well. Still a substantial amount of uncertainty with this one. We just don’t know… yet. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: We just don’t know… yet. For our friends up north, I think they’re in great shape. We’re still on the razor’s edge down here with temps and p-type Sunday. I think this has real potential to be a good one, but getting anything to align this season has been near impossible. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: For our friends up north, I think they’re in great shape. We’re still on the razor’s edge down here with temps and p-type Sunday. I think this has real potential to be a good one, but getting anything to align this season has been near impossible. I’ll be in N. Maine when this hits..so hope it works out here for the most part in SNE. Up there gonna be a big snow event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 23 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I’ll be in N. Maine when this hits..so hope it works out here for the most part in SNE. Up there gonna be a big snow event. Will you make up back to CT for the 2/20 “mega blizzard”? 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 38 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said: The American models need to step up their game and actually assign p-types to QPF. The way vendors are forced to essentially guess what was falling based off of frames that are spaced 3 hours apart is silly. You get that ridiculous tiger striping artifact as a result. To my knowledge none of the models assign ptype. All vendor driven. I guess the source data presumes that using some tools like a sounding anyone can figure it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AstronomyEnjoyer Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 14 minutes ago, weathafella said: To my knowledge none of the models assign ptype. All vendor driven. I guess the source data presumes that using some tools like a sounding anyone can figure it out. Per Pivotal, copy and pasted below. Apparently the foreign models output directly usable data regarding p-type. "ECMWF, UKMET, and Environment Canada models keep track of precipitation type in a precise way as the model integrates, so we know how exactly much precipitation falls in the form of snow (at least, based on the model’s internal diagnostics). This eliminates any concern about including sleet, graupel, or rain when we compute snowfall for those models. For NCEP models, the bookkeeping for precipitation types is less precise, so mis-categorizing some of the precipitation that fell between data output times is always a risk during mixed precipitation or precipitation that is rapidly changing type. We have adopted an approach that usually avoids erroneously treating sleet as snow for NCEP models, so you should not see a shield of "fake snow" extending well equatorward of the actual snow-sleet line in a large mid-latitude cyclone, for example. Still, it is inevitable that we will sometimes overestimate the fraction of mixed precipitation falling as snow in borderline and transitional environments (usually small in area)." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 15 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said: Per Pivotal, copy and pasted below. Apparently the foreign models output directly usable data regarding p-type. "ECMWF, UKMET, and Environment Canada models keep track of precipitation type in a precise way as the model integrates, so we know how exactly much precipitation falls in the form of snow (at least, based on the model’s internal diagnostics). This eliminates any concern about including sleet, graupel, or rain when we compute snowfall for those models. For NCEP models, the bookkeeping for precipitation types is less precise, so mis-categorizing some of the precipitation that fell between data output times is always a risk during mixed precipitation or precipitation that is rapidly changing type. We have adopted an approach that usually avoids erroneously treating sleet as snow for NCEP models, so you should not see a shield of "fake snow" extending well equatorward of the actual snow-sleet line in a large mid-latitude cyclone, for example. Still, it is inevitable that we will sometimes overestimate the fraction of mixed precipitation falling as snow in borderline and transitional environments (usually small in area)." I’m not sure if that means they actually publish the data but either way it’s news to me! Still/snow maps from all sources are suspect when one compares to verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheMainer Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 BOX has warnings up; sharp cutoff at the CT/RI line which is a little surprising; saw ice on RT 6 in Foster/Scituate RI yesterday so plenty of elevation there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Nam warm sectors to Kevin now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 6 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah and take a look at how much further north the lower pressure isobars poke into NY state than the 18z run. Btw, despite the early trends at 00z (admittedly mixed with rgem not going north)….I kind of agree with you that this system is pretty ripe for the primary to correct SE a bit on some of these runs as we close inside 48h. We have a pretty sludgy/molasses airmass to the north…true arctic stuff. Gonna be tough to really drill the primary up there. Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 7 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: BOX has warnings up; sharp cutoff at the CT/RI line which is a little surprising; saw ice on RT 6 in Foster/Scituate RI yesterday so plenty of elevation there. They have a WSW north of there. They’ll put advisories up later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 7 hours ago, CT Rain said: Yeah looks like 6-9 hours of light overrunning as we slot. Good for accretion rates I guess. Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 7 hours ago, CT Rain said: Still quite cold in the low levels. Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 7 hours ago, CT Rain said: Still looks icy for many I think. 2m temps are really cold. Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 6z gfs at least looks more realistic. Icy at ORH. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Nobody spoke of the EURO, blanked CT and Mass? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 6 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said: Nobody spoke of the EURO, blanked CT and Mass? 3-6” for a lot of CT and MA using 10:1 clowns. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 11 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said: Nobody spoke of the EURO, blanked CT and Mass? Map you saw above from TheMainer was only the snow after 12z Sunday. So it didn’t include all the snow that fell late Saturday and overnight prior to 12z Sunday. Euro has been pretty consistent with 3-4” in CT and 5-6” pike region. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 43 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 6z gfs at least looks more realistic. Icy at ORH. Surface torched SOP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 6z GFS looks like it warms the surface Sunday, quite a bit of plain rain… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, Kitz Craver said: Surface torched SOP? Nothing has changed. Hammers ice forecast on track 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 No changes from Bobby . Even pointing at Tolland 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: No changes from Bobby . Even pointing at Tolland Ha.... You are all in. You better salt your entire house to keep it from becoming an igloo. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I’ll be in N. Maine when this hits..so hope it works out here for the most part in SNE. Up there gonna be a big snow event. They went from lowest pack in state to probably the most sans the mtns after Sunday. First ride of season?Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 28 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: no doubt I n my mind that will go up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Gfs going wild 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 9 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: They went from lowest pack in state to probably the most sans the mtns after Sunday. First ride of season? Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk Second trip. Was up 3 weeks ago today. Actually found some very good/excellent riding then. Couldn’t go everywhere(fields were rough), but where you could go was very good to excellent. Yesterday and last nights dump will be just what the Dr ordered. Sunday/Monday will be another foot plus. The Clubs already sent out a warning that they will be grooming 24/7 around the clock…so be alert and be prepared to encounter grooming operations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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