ineedsnow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/13/2025 at 3:43 PM, Damage In Tolland said: I’d bet dollars to weenies that Qpf is cut and slashed over the next 36 -48 hours Expand its actually been going up.. it seems these big storms with tons of Gulf moisture increase.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 GFS is going to be north of 06z i think...PV up north is a bit west....although the second PV lobe to our northeast is slightly pressed vs 06z, so it might try to battle with the other one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/13/2025 at 3:06 PM, Hoth said: Just curious whether this could be one of those deals where the low level cold filters down the valley right HVN. Any thoughts about sneaky ice? Expand Those are fun but often are more of a nowcast... Not sure the gradient is sufficiently strong enough to get a slug of low level cold to roll south into the HVN area. Not the craziest though however? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Gfs isn’t great on front end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/13/2025 at 3:53 PM, CoastalWx said: Gfs isn’t great on front end Expand Primary strong and west too...this is a bad run. Trying to trend back to yesterday's 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/13/2025 at 1:37 PM, mahk_webstah said: wrong thread Expand I know ...was getting mixed up this morning which storm was being covered where. HA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/13/2025 at 3:54 PM, ORH_wxman said: Primary strong and west too...this is a bad run. Trying to trend back to yesterday's 12z. Expand Yep. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Sunday sleetday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 983 south of Watertown NY isn't going to help many.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/13/2025 at 3:55 PM, CoastalWx said: Yep. Oh well. Expand I wasn't buying the flatter solutions really unless they got inside 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 3k NAM looked better than 12k 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 GFS doing the NAM where it dries out to flaccid rain/mix after 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Snow on the front end then sleet on the 12z GFS, Best forcing is well to the west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/13/2025 at 3:54 PM, ORH_wxman said: Primary strong and west too...this is a bad run. Trying to trend back to yesterday's 12z. Expand Funny how every snow event has underperformed or come in weaker as we approach go time, but this primary will have no problem plowing into NY state at full strength 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Heh... doesn't even just seem anymore like this, it's really true. Any one of these systems spanning the last 6 weeks of this torturing winter, in this range, whence we are in a state of 'so long as X doesn't happen' X happens. 1::1 correlation on that since Christmas 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/13/2025 at 3:27 PM, UnitedWx said: Yikes! I can't go anywhere near that shit if I want to breath. Total poison. They're the candles of the fast food world... like McDs!Lol. I work in the plant that makes them... Don't even notice it anymore.Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/13/2025 at 3:58 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Funny how every snow event has underperformed or come in weaker as we approach go time, but this primary will have no problem plowing into NY state at full strength Expand Don’t worry. Onto d7 fantasy blizzards that will find a way to double nipple its way to mediocrity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 The CAD is really strong despite the track though....not sure it ever gets above freezing in ORH. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/13/2025 at 4:00 PM, ORH_wxman said: The CAD is really strong despite the track though....not sure it ever gets above freezing in ORH. Expand I’d watch that high to the NE. I’m still hopeful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/13/2025 at 4:00 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Don’t worry. Onto d7 fantasy bluzzards that will find a way to double nipple it’s way to mediocrity. Expand Yup…the sabotage systems from the 80’s and early 90’s are back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 If you pull the arctic phasing sooner - what happens? That's the risk here. I think the setup and teles promote early and clean phasing. I could see it bomb over VT/western MA.. It's a very deep system—Gulf meets arctic— and most are in the wrong part of the long wave to be on the cold side...is my guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Strong primary to PBG was my concern after looking at the ensembles from overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/13/2025 at 4:01 PM, WinterWolf said: Yup…the sabotage systems from the 80’s and early 90’s are back. Expand Yea. Clean phasing for this system but next week we will struggle to do so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 We really could use one of those nice 1040 highs north of Maine for this. We don't have that at all..it's just this dong ridge extending over. Think of some of those events in 07-08 that flipped, but not without a fight. We don't really have that to maximize frontogenesis and QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/13/2025 at 4:07 PM, CoastalWx said: We really could use one of those nice 1040 highs north of Maine for this. We don't have that at all..it's just this dong ridge extending over. Think of some of those events in 07-08 that flipped, but not without a fight. We don't really have that to maximize frontogenesis and QPF. Expand WE had one (1037 N of CAR) in today's event but the primary was back so far west and no good vort to the east....can't win even when we have some features in place. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 I don’t hate my location for a decent front end thump even on the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Canadain looks maybe a touch warmer than 00z, but still pretty similar in that it keeps the primary to PA before it redevelops eastward....keeps the pike region sleet kind of like 00z. Def on the colder side of guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 On 2/13/2025 at 3:59 PM, Professional Lurker said: Lol. I work in the plant that makes them... Don't even notice it anymore. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk Expand The Lenox, MA location in a historic house that opened in 1987 was just closed for a used-car lot across the street from the new Berkshire Mazda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 I was absolutely ready for a 12z warm up. Just take the butt-bangiest solution lube up and roll with it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GCWarrior Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Feeling pretty good about my trip to Maine next week. Both EURO and GFS are 12+ for western Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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