40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 First Call for Probable Major Holiday Weekend Mess Snow to Potentially Extended Icing & Rain Messy Thursday AM commute to Serve as Prelude to Weekend Although it is certainly not a significant storm, the weak system moving through tonight into tomorrow AM is timed to unfortunately coincide with the morning commute, thus is advised to allow for extra time. Snowfall accumulations will range mostly between a coating and an inch, with some spots near the Vermont and New Hampshire border near 2" before a change to a bit of ice and rain. Then the focus shifts to this weekend, which is destined for more significant travel disruptions. Synoptic Overview: This weekend, a southern stream wave will begin to interact with a lobe of the polar vortex pinned to the south of a potent -NAO block. The combination of antecedent elevated east coast heights attributable to the Maritime continent phases of the MJO and the -NAO block being positioned sufficiently north as to allow a partial midwest phase will maintain enough eastern ridging to allow for an inland track of the low. This will delay the transfer of the mid level low to the coast until the system reaches a very high latitude, which will ensure that snowfall will be limited across much of the region. However, once the system progresses far enough to the east, the it will begin to be influenced initially at the surface by confluence due to the tandem of the -NAO block and the potent 50/50 low. Precisely how quickly this occurs will crucial to whether or not a portion of the area receives a significant ice storm on Sunday. Expected Storm Evolution: Precipitation will break overspread the region as snowfall from southwest to northeast on Saturday evening. After a few inches of snowfall, precipitation will rapidly transition to some ice and rain to the south of the Mass turnpike by midnight late Saturday evening. The transition will quickly over spread the remainder of the region by daybreak, after several inches of snowfall. It is at this point that an extended period icing may occur across the deep interior, as the confluent flow to the north retards the retreat of the antecedent cold. Then precipitation may change to rainfall across the vast majority of the day on Sunday for at least a brief period, due to the inland track of the primary mid level low. However, later in the afternoon, as the surface low potentially transfers to the coast, colder air may once again be advected from the northeast down the coast, which would reintroduce icing issues across especially interior northeastern Mass over through the eastern slopes of the Worcester hills. Stay tuned for an important update on Friday night or Saturday morning, given that some modifications to the forecast will likely be necessary as details of this evolution become clearer. FIRST CALL: 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Nam looks pretty flat. Feels like it alike be wintry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Nam looks pretty flat. Feels like it alike be wintry. Several inches then icestorm verbatim 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Several inches then icestorm verbatim Yeah that would be interesting. Hopefully the rest of the guidance follows. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13 Author Share Posted February 13 21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Nam looks pretty flat. Feels like it alike be wintry. I would not be surprised.....I really hedged indicating that changes were likely. Gotta start conservatively in a precarious situation like that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I would not surprised.....I really hedged indicating that changes were likely. Gotta start conservative in a precarious situation like that. Pretty good confluence and you can see the temps really pressing south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Ya’ll seem more confident… I just don’t know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Ya’ll seem more confident… I just don’t know. NAM won’t give me confidence, it it’s good to start off 00z anyways. We wait until the varsity models come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 I’m intrigued. No expectations this far out, but I can see a colder press. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 13 Author Share Posted February 13 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Ya’ll seem more confident… I just don’t know. I think @WinterWolfdoes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Icon maybe a smidge colder 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Is there anything to "the main piece of energy isn't onshore / being sampled yet" - which I've read here several times over the years. Expect more changes when that happens tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think @WinterWolfdoes lol… The pattern would argue for a colder scenario and press…maybe the modeling is now starting to pick up on those things. I’ll be out of state for this one…but hope it gets all you guys/SNE with good frozen. I’ll be back for whatever happens on the 20th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 5 minutes ago, tunafish said: Is there anything to "the main piece of energy isn't onshore / being sampled yet" - which I've read here several times over the years. Expect more changes when that happens tomorrow? perhaps but IMO any trends with confluence to the NE are more important 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Reggie cold too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 FWIW and usually follows the op but this is the warmest the 0z Icon EPS gets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 That’s cold here…interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 WTF is the ICON-EPS? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 GFS is colder at 00z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Ran from Woody’s garage… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 24 minutes ago, DomNH said: WTF is the ICON-EPS? Ukie also has eps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Definitely colder. Snow to sleet with a bit of rain here then tuck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 tons of sleet here most of the ZR is south 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 I'd sign for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 GFS more of a widespread paint peeler than zr. What a fun solution that is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 CMC also coming in colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 7 minutes ago, DomNH said: GFS more of a widespread paint peeler than zr. What a fun solution that is. Wedge is ridiculous. Hitting like -10/-12C by Sunday PM. Would probably be one of those ripping sleet and generating flakes under the warm layer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 And actually a fairly stormy/windy system. Haven't had much of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 GEFS coming in colder 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Damage: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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