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OBS-Nowcast for snow 4P Tue 2/11-7A THURSDAY 2/13/25 Mainly NJ-NYC-LI.


wdrag
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As of 12 am, we have 1.2" of snow for 0.3" the last hour and it's still snowing moderately, but we're missing the heavier bands just to our SE by 5-10 miles, so at this point, thinking about 2", assuming 3 more hours of this, unless we finally get a few heavy bands. 2" reported in Hazlet and 2.8" in Howell and oddly 2" in Basking Ridge, which was supposed to get less than here, but you never know where the best banding will set up. 1" in Piscataway and 4" in Toms River.

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57 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

As of 12 am, we have 1.2" of snow for 0.3" the last hour and it's still snowing moderately, but we're missing the heavier bands just to our SE by 5-10 miles, so at this point, thinking about 2", assuming 3 more hours of this, unless we finally get a few heavy bands. 2" reported in Hazlet and 2.8" in Howell and oddly 2" in Basking Ridge, which was supposed to get less than here, but you never know where the best banding will set up. 1" in Piscataway and 4" in Toms River.

As of 1 am, we have 1.5" of snow for another 0.3" the last hour and despite being in what looks like a radar lull, it's still snowing close to moderately (the small flakes might not be showing up great on the radar) and it looks like a healthy blob of snow is aimed at us and entering Somerset County right now. Hoping that batch can put us over 2". Still 30F. Just walked around a bit and threw some snowballs - the snow packs decently as it has some moisture, but it's nowhere near wet or slushy.

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Went outside to measure before going to bed. 1.2" here in Piscataway at 1:15am. Very light snow with tiny flakes continues. It takes forever to get to 1 inch with this type of snow. 

I see on radar there are some better returns in eastern PA. Maybe we can get a little better burst at the end of the event to end up somewhere between 1.5 and 2 here. NAM models not surprisingly were overdone, but there were many other models the last couple days that showed this area getting 1.5 to 2. Good job by Euro and a few other models. 

I know some people are only interested in bigger storms and of course I'd rather have one, but I still really enjoy these little 1 to 2 inch snow events. It's beautiful out there. I'm glad it's going to be cloudy with temps only making it slightly above freezing later today, so there won't be a lot of melting. Nice that we'll get to enjoy this snow for a day. 

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11 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Radar still looks good, and have a nice band over me now in southern Nassau 

Yep, and here the WWA was lowered from 3-5 to 2-5, which lately made me think “expect 2 or less” - nah, this has performed nicely for me. In the 4-5 range with snow still to come as the radar still has decent returns for a bit yet. 

If only this amplified just a bit more.

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56 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

As of 1 am, we have 1.5" of snow for another 0.3" the last hour and despite being in what looks like a radar lull, it's still snowing close to moderately (the small flakes might not be showing up great on the radar) and it looks like a healthy blob of snow is aimed at us and entering Somerset County right now. Hoping that batch can put us over 2". Still 30F. Just walked around a bit and threw some snowballs - the snow packs decently as it has some moisture, but it's nowhere near wet or slushy.

image.png

Well, that lull ended up hurting and that big blob aimed at us kind of disintegrated so we only got 0.15" the past hour, bringing our total up to 1.65" as of 2:00 am; temp is still 30F.  Radar, in general, shows the back edge of the decent precip in Bucks/Montco, but it does look aimed at us so maybe we can eke out enough to get to 2", but I'm not counting on it.  There's also always the possibility we can pick up another 0.1 or 0.2" after that from some lighter snow showers.   

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13 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Well, that lull ended up hurting and that big blob aimed at us kind of disintegrated so we only got 0.15" the past hour, bringing our total up to 1.65" as of 2:00 am; temp is still 30F.  Radar, in general, shows the back edge of the decent precip in Bucks/Montco, but it does look aimed at us so maybe we can eke out enough to get to 2", but I'm not counting on it.  There's also always the possibility we can pick up another 0.1 or 0.2" after that from some lighter snow showers.   

Yeah that batch in eastern PA definitely weakened. After pretty much just flurries here for an hour during that lull, it has now picked back up to light snow with those slightly better echoes moving in. This last little batch of light snow might be just enough to get us to 1.5" here in Piscataway. I see the better echoes are missing me a few miles to the south. Time for me to finally try to get some sleep now, lol. 

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46 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Heaviest snow of the night right now - let's see how long it can hold on...

 

Wow, it held on for a good half hour of moderate to heavy snow through about 3:05 am and as of 3:00 am, we're up to 1.9", as we got 1/4" the last hour.. It's been snowing more lightly to moderately since about 3:05 am and it's possible we'll eke out another 0.1" to get to 2.0" for the storm. Temp is at 30F still.

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Well I just woke up and I am very pleasantly surprised as everything is white including the streets here in New City / Rockland County = I was not expecting anything here but my guess is we could have close to an inch,,,,,,,,If I was not so tired I would go for a walk,,,,,,flakes still coming down lightly but I think this is just about done,,,,congrats on your snow everyone especially South Jersey

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12 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Well I just woke up and I am very pleasantly surprised as everything is white including the streets here in New City / Rockland County = I was not expecting anything here but my guess is we could have close to an inch,,,,,,,,If I was not so tired I would go for a walk,,,,,,flakes still coming down lightly but I think this is just about done,,,,congrats on your snow everyone especially South Jersey

So happy this gave many at least something. Do we know totals out of ACY - Cape May? They looked to have been in the heavier bands. 

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The last 45 minutes of light snow did give us another 0.1" to bring the final storm total up to 2.0", as it's down to flurries now and there don't look to be any more bands coming.  Was a bit less than my 2.8" prediction and the NWS prediction of 2.4" for Metuchen, but that's fine as I got to enjoy a really pretty snowfall; this brings our seasonal total up to 14.8", which is only a couple of inches behind where we should be, on average.  Time to go shovel, which I love to do in the middle of the night when there's not a soul around.  

Edit - 30 minutes to shovel - way easier than the 2 hr shovel for Saturday's storm, which was 1.6" in depth vs. the 2" of depth tonight - that's why it's all about the mass, as tonight's mass was about 1/3 that of Saturday's.  

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  • wdrag changed the title to OBS-Nowcast for snow 4P Tue 2/11-7A THURSDAY 2/13/25 Mainly NJ-NYC-LI.

Wantage NJ in far northern Sussex County... just had a few flurries-T, so far.  I think we get some later this morning-evening. 

At 410AM have extended the headline into the second event since this reduces thread bounce, AND, I think that "parts" of our NYC subforum including LI, NJ, PA will see an additional few tenths of an inch of snow today with ice pellet very minor amounts this evening, and of course the obligatory icing well inland overnight.  Don't be surprised at a little drizzle-freezing drizzle for LI and the NJ coast today.  The additional snow may not stick very well during the daylight hours as temps rise.  Still suggest cleaning the snowboard AT MOST once every 6 hours and see what you get. Thank you for all your shares.  

I am considering starting a separate 19th-20th snow storm-event thread late this morning. 

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18 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

The last 45 minutes of light snow did give us another 0.1" to bring the final storm total up to 2.0", as it's down to flurries now and there don't look to be any more bands coming.  Was a bit less than my 2.8" prediction and the NWS prediction of 2.4" for Metuchen, but that's fine as I got to enjoy a really pretty snowfall; this brings our seasonal total up to 14.8", which is only a couple of inches behind where we should be, on average.  Time to go shovel, which I love to do in the middle of the night when there's not a soul around.  

lm not shoveling; back still sore from the sleet fest the other day. Nature will dispatch this I’m sure. Thanks for the reports. 

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