OBS-Nowcast for snow 4P Tue 2/11-7A THURSDAY 2/13/25 Mainly NJ-NYC-LI.

[Metasequoia]

Looks like parts of NYC might see a break in the snow for a bit. Although the snow looks to be developing in central and eastern PA, which will fill in soon after.

[nycsnow]

https://x.com/bradybgwx/status/1889489307108266269?s=46

[donsutherland1]

Model verification through 7 pm (0z):

[Rmine1]

3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Dumping here. 1/2” or so down. 

Nice. Very light snow here. 

[jm1220]

11 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Dumping here. 1/2” or so down. 

Yep, nice big flakes. Almost 0.5" here.

[ag3]

Nam cutoff is now just north of NYC. 

[winterwx21]

3 minutes ago, ag3 said:

Nam cutoff is now just north of NYC. 

And it cut way back for NYC. HRRR was a good warning that NAM was overdone, even though some of those HRRR runs went too far in keeping all the snow to the south. 

[jm1220]

Snow firing up in E PA. We'll have to watch to see if it congeals into a heavier snow band or stays light, and how far N it expands. Most models at least have some getting into the lower Hudson Valley. If we have snow in NYC/I-80/LI until 8 or 9z, or until 3am we can still have a couple or few inches. 

[dseagull]

Ill try to push it up north for you city folk.   Almost at the 3 inch mark, which is perfect for hunting.   Roads caved big time with my scanner starting to go nuts with accidents in several local PD jurisdictions.  I don't need a sketchy early morning commute back west when hunting. 

[Brasiluvsnow]

1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

Nothing here in Rockland County. Looks like the cutoff line right now is near Yonkers.

Fact,,,,,I have been watching the radar and we are out of this one

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Fact,,,,,I have been watching the radar and we are out of this one

If you look at the radar over E PA there is snow starting up over the Poconos down to I-78. It won't be heavy but it's headed ENE and should clip most of the LHV. 

[Brasiluvsnow]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

If you look at the radar over E PA there is snow starting up over the Poconos down to I-78. It won't be heavy but it's headed ENE and should clip most of the LHV. 

Thanks JM we shall see as I have been watching the radar for an hour 

[psv88]

Snow just starting to stick to the secondary roads. Temp is warm at 31 so main roads should remain wet 

[nycsnow]

Radar filling in

[WestBabylonWeather]

Here in west bab we have about a half an inch. Snow coming down nicely 

in the grand scheme of things we have been getting small snow events since December. Better than no winter at all. 

[RU848789]

1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

As of 8 pm, we have 0.1" otg (just about 1/4"/hr rate) at 31F and snowing lightly to moderately - nice dendrites. The radar shows the decent snowfall rates falling off quickly about 10 miles NW of here, so this could be a close call all night unless the radar follows the NAMs and some other models and fills in towards Sussex/Warren counties for awhile.

As of 9 pm we have 0.35" of snow on the ground for exactly 1/4" the last hour, with snow falling between lightly and moderately at 31F.  Everything is covered and slippery.  We're still not far from the NW edge of the accumulating snow - not sure if folks in Somerset or especially Hunterdon or Morris are getting much.  Heavy band just went through Mercer and southern Middlesex, but missed to my SE.  

[ag3]

4 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Radar filling in

Nice. 

[winterwx21]

6 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Radar filling in

NAM 3km cut NYC down to 1 inch. Looks as if the HRRR was onto something, but at least we're getting some snow. Will keep watching radar of course. Not completely out of the question that we can pull off 2 inches, but it isn't looking as good now. 

[WestBabylonWeather]

Snow event on top of an existing snow pack that we thought would already be gone. Been awhile. Had about 1-2” on the lawn when this started 

[winterwx21]

A dusting here as light snow continues. Hopefully we can at least get an inch. 

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

NAM 3km cut NYC down to 1 inch. Looks as if the HRRR was onto something, but at least we're getting some snow. Will keep watching radar of course. Not completely out of the question that we can pull off 2 inches, but it isn't looking as good now. 

It sucks being on the edge. Models will always differ by a few miles which makes a huge difference for us and on north

[nycsnow]

2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

NAM 3km cut NYC down to 1 inch. Looks as if the HRRR was onto something, but at least we're getting some snow. Will keep watching radar of course. Not completely out of the question that we can pull off 2 inches, but it isn't looking as good now. 

Wouldn’t worry about models at this time watch radar, it’s looking better. Esp for south shore areas 

[weatherpruf]

Just now, winterwx21 said:

NAM 3kn cut NYC down to 1 inch. Looks as if the HRRR was onto something, but at least we're getting some snow. Will keep watching radar of course. Not completely out of the question that we can pull off 2 inches, but it isn't looking as good now. 

It's a dusting here and it just seems like we are fringed. I almost always favor the lower forecasts, especially in a year like this. At least I won't be breaking my back tomorrow. Snowing very lightly. 

[weatherpruf]

Just now, nycsnow said:

Wouldn’t worry about models at this time watch radar, it’s looking better. Esp for south shore areas 

That's a bit of a different dynamic from here; they can often do better than parts of NJ. Seen a lot of events like that. 

[terrapin8100]

Flurries have started in Ossining. Hope everyone to the south enjoys their snow tonight. 

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

It sucks being on the edge. Models will always differ by a few miles which makes a huge difference for us and on north

North, south, east, west...take your pick this year. We're in a pretty deep hole. God only knows why and he ain't talking.

[Brian5671]

Light snow here now 30

[winterwx21]

2 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Wouldn’t worry about models at this time watch radar, it’s looking better. Esp for south shore areas 

HRRR and NAM 3km moved towards each other and came into agreement as this event got underway. Definitely looks as if NAM was overdone and HRRR was underdone before the event. Models are usually more and more accurate the closer you get to an event, so it's always still time to watch them. 

[jm1220]

7 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

NAM 3km cut NYC down to 1 inch. Looks as if the HRRR was onto something, but at least we're getting some snow. Will keep watching radar of course. Not completely out of the question that we can pull off 2 inches, but it isn't looking as good now. 

And if there's snow falling in the LHV it will be wrong since it had zero there. 

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

And if there's snow falling in the LHV it will be wrong since it had zero there. 

Even here it's snowing up to I-84