OBS-Nowcast for snow 4P Tue 2/11-7A THURSDAY 2/13/25 Mainly NJ-NYC-LI.

[Kaner587]

@psv88@uofmiami@NorthShoreWx and other north shore posters, the last 10 days has been quite enjoyable. Cold but not too cold, frequent small to moderate events. I definitely prefer a big event but the last 2 winters have been lacking in persistent wintry weather. AND even though this winter hasn’t featured above normal snow yet (our area probably should be at about 20-22in at this point I would guess) it has basically been wall to wall with no clear end in sight. The last wall to wall winter we had was probably 2014/2015 and that was more of a 2nd half winter in terms of snow (I think 80% or so fell after 1/20) though was fairly cold prior to the snowy period…

 

i would say satisfying would be a good way to describe it

 

icing on the cake would be a nice front end this wknd, followed by something big 2/20 or thereabouts. We’ll see…

[psv88]

4 minutes ago, Kaner587 said:

@psv88@uofmiami@NorthShoreWx and other north shore posters, the last 10 days has been quite enjoyable. Cold but not too cold, frequent small to moderate events. I definitely prefer a big event but the last 2 winters have been lacking in persistent wintry weather. AND even though this winter hasn’t featured above normal snow yet (our area probably should be at about 20-22in at this point I would guess) it has basically been wall to wall with no clear end in sight. The last wall to wall winter we had was probably 2014/2015 and that was more of a 2nd half winter in terms of snow (I think 80% or so fell after 1/20) though was fairly cold prior to the snowy period…

Generally agreed. We’ve had several snow events where the snow has stuck around. It’s definitely been cold, but not brutally cold. Up to 17.8” on the season, so we will likely get to the mid 20s. Still a bit below normal but not terrible 

[wdrag]

Adding CoCoRaHs for this event, including qpf.

Supplement ag will with prettier analysis and actual NWS PNS.  Have a day-glad to see some appreciation for this winter. More coming the next 10 days including snowfall for CP as we try to get to our Feb normal of 10.1" 

Haven't checked on how much actually fell in this event through 7A for CP, PHL, BWI,DCA.

[jm1220]

It’s certainly nice now, can’t complain with a half foot on the ground. And the cold has been impressive vs what we’ve been used to. But we used to be able to get a KU or two when the cold had been around which we don’t this year, we get these smaller events due to how chaotic the pattern is or certain features in the wrong place. So at this point the winter gets an average grade for the cold but we’re still likely to end below to well below average for snow. I guess this would be a warmer version of most 1980s winters. 

[dseagull]

Another phenomenal morning of bird hunting.  About 5-6 inches of compacted wet snow. 

[NorthShoreWx]

31 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Generally agreed. We’ve had several snow events where the snow has stuck around. It’s definitely been cold, but not brutally cold. Up to 17.8” on the season, so we will likely get to the mid 20s. Still a bit below normal but not terrible 

I don't know what's normal anymore, but the 30 year average here is between 36 and 37 inches.

[NorthShoreWx]

Final tally LE 0.23" melted.

Perfect 10:1 ratio on 2.3" snowfall.  Another one of those "averages" that seldom happens.

[NorthShoreWx]

Very light OES here at the moment.  Traces of LI Sound bands showing on radar.  More vigorous south of LI and especially on central Jersey coast.

32°

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?parms=OKX-N0B-1-12-100-usa-rad

 

[winterwx21]

Ended up with 1.5" here. Nice little event. I wish we could have gotten a few inches like all those NAM runs showed, but not a surprise since the NAM models are terrible. The more reasonable models like Euro did well with this event. There were many model runs that kept showing 1.5 to 2 for a lot of the area, and they ended up being right on the money. 

[wdrag]

Finals through 7A:  2/12/25

CP, LGA, EWR 1.5,

JFK 1.8

ISP 1.9

DCA 6.4

BWI 3.8

PHL 3.1

ILG 3.4

ABE 1.0

ACY 7.8

 

[donsutherland1]

Four photos from the New York Botanical Garden this morning:

 

[dmillz25]

1.7” total here in bed stuy 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Adding CoCoRaHs for this event, including qpf.

Supplement ag will with prettier analysis and actual NWS PNS.  Have a day-glad to see some appreciation for this winter. More coming the next 10 days including snowfall for CP as we try to get to our Feb normal of 10.1" 

Haven't checked on how much actually fell in this event through 7A for CP, PHL, BWI,DCA.

peak was 3.0 in eastern long island on 0.31 liquid

[LibertyBell]

30 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Finals through 7A:  2/12/25

CP, LGA, EWR 1.5,

JFK 1.8

ISP 1.9

DCA 6.4

BWI 3.8

PHL 3.1

ILG 3.4

ABE 1.0

ACY 7.8

 

nice to see the JFK amount went up, was that still on 0.21 liquid?

[The 4 Seasons]

Snowfall totals from last night

 

[LibertyBell]

12 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Snowfall totals from last night

 

is that 3.2 on Long Island from Babylon?

[FPizz]

1.5" here.  The cocorahs map had it perfectly

[RU848789]

Thought the NWS forecast and most of the models yesterday, apart from the HRRR, did pretty well - not perfect, but pretty well. The estimated snowfall map and the NWS forecast from the 4 am package yesterday for much of the region from DC/Balt through Philly/NYC and up into the Hudson Valley/CT are attached; I like to use the NWS forecast from about 12 hours before the event starts to evaluate their forecast, as that's really when most people are committing to actions if needed.

The NWS forecast was excellent along/SE of 95 and for areas that got <1" and was decent, but a bit overdone for folks between 95 and their 1" line, at least from Philly to NYC. For giggles, I included yesterday's 18Z HRRR, NAM, and Euro, as 18Z was the last model suite that came out before the storm started. The Euro/NAM were quite good (and earlier in the day, also, as were most other models), while the HRRR way underdid snowfall amounts (and consistently did so); the NWS was right to ignore it as an outlier (with good rationale, as well explained by Upton), as did most on the board.  

 

[snywx]

29f w/ very light snow falling

expecting 1-2” tonight transitioning to a bit of ice 

[wishcast_hater]

I’m covering my acre of land with a big tarp to preserve my snowpack once it turns to rain.


.

[sussexcountyobs]

Light snow for last 1/2 hr.

30°

[RU848789]

pic from this morning - I love snow.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

19 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

pic from this morning - I love snow.

To those of us that have this insane love of snow it's hard to describe to non-snow people. Where I am, which is approximately 50 miles due north of Midtown Manhattan, I'm approaching 30 inches of snow for the season and more importantly snow cover for over 35 days. That's probably near normal for my area to this point in time, and it's really all it takes for me to wake up in the morning and feel good. Looking outside at a simple scene like what you posted just brings a calmness, peacefulness, call it serenity. I thought by my age it would wear off but it's 50+ years and I can tell you you don't outgrow it, which is actually a good thing.

[Allsnow]

36 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

pic from this morning - I love snow.

Great picture 

[LibertyBell]

21 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

To those of us that have this insane love of snow it's hard to describe to non-snow people. Where I am, which is approximately 50 miles due north of Midtown Manhattan, I'm approaching 30 inches of snow for the season and more importantly snow cover for over 35 days. That's probably near normal for my area to this point in time, and it's really all it takes for me to wake up in the morning and feel good. Looking outside at a simple scene like what you posted just brings a calmness, peacefulness, call it serenity. I thought by my age it would wear off but it's 50+ years and I can tell you you don't outgrow it, which is actually a good thing.

I wonder if it gives you a serotonin boost the same way sunlight does? It makes me feel brighter too, not at all like dark depressing rainy days.  Sunlight makes me feel happy in the same way.

That's why I like snow and sunshine.

 

[weatherpruf]

53 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

pic from this morning - I love snow.

Despite living in the area 62 years, I had never seen nor heard of that pond till you mentioned it, or at least I had not noticed it until about a year ago, and I can't remember why I was even there, probably stumbled on it trying to avoid a traffic jam. 

[weatherpruf]

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I wonder if it gives you a serotonin boost the same way sunlight does? It makes me feel brighter too, not at all like dark depressing rainy days.  Sunlight makes me feel happy in the same way.

That's why I like snow and sunshine.

 

Well, for one thing the serotonin hypothesis was debunked a very long time ago, but yes, snow does indeed lift some peoples' spirits in the winter because it is bright. Others though, get very depressed by snow and ice. It is theorized that shorter days have something to do with it.

[weatherpruf]

34 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

To those of us that have this insane love of snow it's hard to describe to non-snow people. Where I am, which is approximately 50 miles due north of Midtown Manhattan, I'm approaching 30 inches of snow for the season and more importantly snow cover for over 35 days. That's probably near normal for my area to this point in time, and it's really all it takes for me to wake up in the morning and feel good. Looking outside at a simple scene like what you posted just brings a calmness, peacefulness, call it serenity. I thought by my age it would wear off but it's 50+ years and I can tell you you don't outgrow it, which is actually a good thing.

ANd trust me, I don't live far from there and went for a walk in another nearby park and it was really only about 1-2 inches, but it was on top of the ice pack so it had a nice, full look to it. Still waiting for something substantial, but this is better than years you see nothing at all. Think we are around 10-11 for the season so far; if these events had been serious systems, we'd have been in good shape.

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Well, for one thing the serotonin hypothesis was debunked a very long time ago, but yes, snow does indeed lift some peoples' spirits in the winter because it is bright. Others though, get very depressed by snow and ice. It is theorized that shorter days have something to do with it.

that's weird, I thought seasonal affective disorder was because of lack of sunlight and sunlight stimulates serotonin production? UV lamps are marketed to do the same thing

 Our days are longer now, so it's not like late December short days.

[wdrag]

Wantage NJ 0.1" snow-snow pellets 3P-430P. 28/23 at 5P.