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OBS-Nowcast for snow 4P Tue 2/11-7A THURSDAY 2/13/25 Mainly NJ-NYC-LI.


wdrag
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About .5-1 on barnegat bay.  Decent rates considering returns.  Streets are caving finally.   Should be a fun morning hunt, and roads will be manageable at 630AM.  Taking a walk with the hunting beast after i clean up my mess from steak and lobster dinner.  20250211_192707.thumb.jpg.5f28a9de010b55dc2bab06631723cbd4.jpg

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Snow started lightly here around 7:25 pm at 32F and we now have an official dusting as of 7:45 pm, but more importantly, intensity has picked up to moderate - this looks like 1/4" per hour snowfall and we hopefully have 6-8 hours of snow, so 2-3" is definitely possible, especially if we get some heavier rates by 9-10 pm as expected.

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18Z NAM3km has been a very good predicted match to the actual radar the past couple of hours as per below for 8 pm.  And I know past performance is no guarantee of future returns, but here's what the 18Z NAM returned. Just sayin'.  And as an aside, the NWS-NYC discussion I posted earlier, explaining how the HRRR doesn't do well in northern fringe situations that still have lift, looks to be prescient.  So far, as I hate spiking the ball early.  

sn10_acc-imp.us_state_ne_s.png

 

nam3km_ref_frzn_neus_7.png?ex=67ad4295&is=67abf115&hm=b51d941fcf6dc8d27eef07734e4bd35a809333b052fb5d0f95e5aa131a00168b&

 

 

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  • wdrag changed the title to OBS-Nowcast for snow 4P Tue 2/11-7A THURSDAY 2/13/25 Mainly NJ-NYC-LI.

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