Feb 11-13: Nowcast/Obs

[SnowenOutThere]

This storm reminds me a lot of my childhood storms of the early 2010s through 2015 with a thick heavy snow followed by a cloudy day and then rain. It’s a little nostalgic 

[TSG]

A friendly reminder to everyone what kind of hardware NOAA runs the 12kNAM on

 

[high risk]

37 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

So, have we learned anything from this storm?  Yes.

Always, ALWAYS trust the HRRR, especially when backed up by a retired meteorologist who no longer lives in the area.

ALWAYS call a bust before the first flakes have begun.

In seriousness, though, the HRRR was developed to be a model to assist with forecasting of deep convection.  Is it totally useless in winter?  Of course not, and we know that it led the way on lower QPF last Saturday, but at least be suspicious when it bucks most other guidance.  
 

     Go back and look at simulated reflectivity from yesterday’s 12Z NAM Nest.   Pretty damn good.    This is one of the first models I look at for short-term winter forecasts.  Too bad that its days are numbered.  

[deer]

4 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

People stomping their feet and storming out of here yesterday declaring “onto the next one” More  than a few on here Cannot live in the present  moment and enjoy it. Always into what’s next. When you can’t enjoy the present moment you never enjoy  Any moment 

Seriously! Snow falls from the sky a couple times a year for most of us. 

[TSG]

4 minutes ago, high risk said:

In seriousness, though, the HRRR was developed to be a model to assist with forecasting of deep convection.  Is it totally useless in winter?  Of course not, and we know that it led the way on lower QPF last Saturday, but at least be suspicious when it bucks most other guidance.  
 

     Go back and look at simulated reflectivity from yesterday’s 12Z NAM Nest.   Pretty damn good.    This is one of the first models I look at for short-term winter forecasts.  Too bad that its days are numbered.  

I'm shitting on it above lol, but the 12k is great 24-36hrs out from an event. The problem is it keeps running past that.

 

I specifically remember the northern crew rejoicing Sunday night about this 00z run.. I had a feeling it was setting people up for disappointment.

[Fozz]

26 minutes ago, mappy said:

Nothing is funnier than Pann go low during the 2016 Blizzard and @North Balti Zenwas trolling him on social media and was blocked 

22 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

No regrets! 

What did he forecast for that blizzard?

[North Balti Zen]

He was doubling down on 3-6 for balt city in real time on twitter even as it was already vomiting snow - I wore him out for a bit on that and then he sent me to the shadow zone…

[gymengineer]

29 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

It was 96. I stopped listening to Bob Ryan after that. 

I am 100% positive it was not the blizzard of 96. This news article describes the exact Friday night broadcast where he was the first to declare that we would be seeing a top 5 storm for DC. He later described in the annual NBC4 Weather Almanac that he had seen the latest ETA run and came to that conclusion.

 https://washingtoncitypaper.com/article/454114/will-the-weather-be-the-same-without-bob-ryan/

"As the blizzard of ’96 (still the third-largest three-day snowfall in recorded D.C. weather history, despite Snowmageddon and its ilk) approached, Ryan was getting punchy. A day or two before the snow arrived, I was home from college, watching the news with some friends in one of their parents’ basements. I don’t remember exactly what Ryan said, and I haven’t been able to dig up any video online of the broadcast I have in mind, but 17 years later, I still remember marveling at the tone he struck on the air that night: One part alarmed, one part a little overwhelmed, three parts very, very, excited about the weather we were all about to experience."

[Fozz]

2 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

He was doubling down on 3-6 for balt city in real time on twitter even as it was already vomiting snow - I wore him out for a bit on that and then he sent me to the shadow zone…

Yikes…. that is not only stupid but very reckless. Literally the easiest HECS to ever forecast.

Guys like him give his profession a bad name.

[EB89]

It’s now misting in Leesburg. 

[Warm Nose]

Just now, EB89 said:

It’s now misting in Leesburg. 

Same - just above freezing so no frozen stuff.

It's gonna get foggy tonight with all of the snow cover and the warmer temps.

[stormtracker]

36 minutes ago, mappy said:

Nothing is funnier than Pann go low during the 2016 Blizzard and @North Balti Zenwas trolling him on social media and was blocked 

I trolled him and Justin Berk I think his name is.  And another Baltimore met.  Only Justin blocked me

[aldie 22]

Has the Hrrr come around yet for yesterday?

[Terpeast]

7 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

I am 100% positive it was not the blizzard of 96. This news article describes the exact Friday night broadcast where he was the first to declare that we would be seeing a top 5 storm for DC. He later described in the annual NBC4 Weather Almanac that he had seen the latest ETA run and came to that conclusion.

 https://washingtoncitypaper.com/article/454114/will-the-weather-be-the-same-without-bob-ryan/

"As the blizzard of ’96 (still the third-largest three-day snowfall in recorded D.C. weather history, despite Snowmageddon and its ilk) approached, Ryan was getting punchy. A day or two before the snow arrived, I was home from college, watching the news with some friends in one of their parents’ basements. I don’t remember exactly what Ryan said, and I haven’t been able to dig up any video online of the broadcast I have in mind, but 17 years later, I still remember marveling at the tone he struck on the air that night: One part alarmed, one part a little overwhelmed, three parts very, very, excited about the weather we were all about to experience."

Maybe I got it mixed up with another storm. But I do remember a major double digit storm where Bob Ryan went low and stayed low, it was almost like he totally disengaged from it all.

[HighStakes]

4 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Yikes…. that is not only stupid but very reckless. Literally the easiest HECS to ever forecast.

Guys like him give his profession a bad name.

He also went super conservative for the first February blizzard in 2010. NWS had 24-36 and he had 10-20.

[ThePhotoGuy]

 

 

[ThePhotoGuy]

Didn't measure early this morning so going by a local spotter report: 4.8 inches. 

[aldie 22]

@stormtracker didn't Bob Ryan attend one of the conferences? I remember seeing him there

[Ji]

So, have we learned anything from this storm?  Yes.
Always, ALWAYS trust the HRRR, especially when backed up by a retired meteorologist who no longer lives in the area.
ALWAYS call a bust before the first flakes have begun.

Captial weather hopped into bed with him

[Ji]

Nothing is funnier than Pann go low during the 2016 Blizzard and [mention=1286]North Balti Zen[/mention]was trolling him on social media and was blocked 

Pann went low?? In what universe?

[Ji]

He was doubling down on 3-6 for balt city in real time on twitter even as it was already vomiting snow - I wore him out for a bit on that and then he sent me to the shadow zone…

No way. Tony pann calls for snow during the summer.

[Ji]

I am 100% positive it was not the blizzard of 96. This news article describes the exact Friday night broadcast where he was the first to declare that we would be seeing a top 5 storm for DC. He later described in the annual NBC4 Weather Almanac that he had seen the latest ETA run and came to that conclusion.
 https://washingtoncitypaper.com/article/454114/will-the-weather-be-the-same-without-bob-ryan/
"As the blizzard of ’96 (still the third-largest three-day snowfall in recorded D.C. weather history, despite Snowmageddon and its ilk) approached, Ryan was getting punchy. A day or two before the snow arrived, I was home from college, watching the news with some friends in one of their parents’ basements. I don’t remember exactly what Ryan said, and I haven’t been able to dig up any video online of the broadcast I have in mind, but 17 years later, I still remember marveling at the tone he struck on the air that night: One part alarmed, one part a little overwhelmed, three parts very, very, excited about the weather we were all about to experience."

Agree, Bob Ryan went huge in 96. It must of been Douglas hill

[high risk]

24 minutes ago, TSG said:

I'm shitting on it above lol, but the 12k is great 24-36hrs out from an event. The problem is it keeps running past that.

 

I specifically remember the northern crew rejoicing Sunday night about this 00z run.. I had a feeling it was setting people up for disappointment.

 

    But you're showing the parent (12 km), and I praised the nest (3 km).    The parent NAM is not a very good model, but the nest is, especially at shorter ranges.    I don't trust the synoptics much beyond 36 hours.

[TSG]

2 minutes ago, high risk said:

 

    But you're showing the parent (12 km), and I praised the nest (3 km).    The parent NAM is not a very good model, but the nest is, especially at shorter ranges.    I don't trust the synoptics much beyond 36 hours.

Ahhh I read 12Z as 12K. I was kind of confused by that wording but carried on anyway lol. Sorry!

[psuhoffman]

31 minutes ago, high risk said:

In seriousness, though, the HRRR was developed to be a model to assist with forecasting of deep convection.  Is it totally useless in winter?  Of course not, and we know that it led the way on lower QPF last Saturday, but at least be suspicious when it bucks most other guidance.  
 

     Go back and look at simulated reflectivity from yesterday’s 12Z NAM Nest.   Pretty damn good.    This is one of the first models I look at for short-term winter forecasts.  Too bad that its days are numbered.  

It was right up here! 

[Maestrobjwa]

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

Pann went low?? In what universe?

That's what I want to know! I mean he's THE weeniest local TV met in the state...he seriously went that low on the easiest blizzard forecast ever?

[psuhoffman]

Bob definitely was the first to go big in 96 but to be fair he was only like 15 mins ahead of everyone else...its just he was on the air as the evening guidance came in, back then the ETA and NGM started coming in around 11pm, and I guess that was the run where the models caved and came north...and he broke in before his normal weather timeslot to tell everyone a huge snow was coming, top 5 ever.  They didn't have the normal graphics and forecast prepared it was all just on the spot based on what he just saw.   Everyone else caught on very soon after.  

But what made that moment so memorable was that Bob Ryan was by far the most conservative and almost always under predicted snow, so him saying that made it all the more memorable.  

[North Balti Zen]

33 minutes ago, Ji said:

No way. Tony pann calls for snow during the summer.

He was in a full blown contrarian phase. It was bizarre. Then I no longer had to read his shit because I got the block hammer...

[Jersey Andrew]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Bob definitely was the first to go big in 96 but to be fair he was only like 15 mins ahead of everyone else...its just he was on the air as the evening guidance came in, back then the ETA and NGM started coming in around 11pm, and I guess that was the run where the models caved and came north...and he broke in before his normal weather timeslot to tell everyone a huge snow was coming, top 5 ever.  They didn't have the normal graphics and forecast prepared it was all just on the spot based on what he just saw.   Everyone else caught on very soon after.  

But what made that moment so memorable was that Bob Ryan was by far the most conservative and almost always under predicted snow, so him saying that made it all the more memorable.  

The 96 blizzard was the first big storm of the Internet era. PTRAVEL and SNONUT on AOL dial up giving the model rundown. I could not believe the 2 foot forecast for NOVA even though I had vague memories of February 1983. Bob Ryan was the go to guy back then on Channel 4 and I was blown away by the 18-24 graphic never seen before.

[WEATHER53]

25 minutes ago, Ji said:

Agree, Bob Ryan went huge in 96. It must of been Douglas hill

He called it “of biblical proportions”