Feb 11-13: Nowcast/Obs

[ThePhotoGuy]

1 hour ago, MillvilleWx said:

This is a truly scared group in here. I just looked at guidance with the QPF distribution and this is still looking exactly as planned. The most QPF deficient model is the HRRR at range and even that is 1-4” north of I-70, 3-6” Central MD, 4-8” Rt50 on south with even some 8+ possible in Calvert and Northern St Mary’s over into interior lower slower Sussex Co DE. I haven’t seen anything that looks very different. I like what the offices have for WWA and WSW’s across the board. It’s gonna snow! 

It is interesting how us lowlanders in Anne Arundel compared to the Northern counties have down well these past years since the Jan 2022 storm (especially south of Annapolis). While I say this, I hope it doesn't jinx us for this storm!  

[EB89]

Frederick schools are closing 3.5 hours early tomorrow. 

[stormtracker]

GFS looking about the same

[mitchnick]

8 minutes ago, ThePhotoGuy said:

It is interesting how us lowlanders in Anne Arundel compared to the Northern counties have down well these past years since the Jan 2022 storm (especially south of Annapolis). While I say this, I hope it doesn't jinx us for this storm!  

What's it matter. Come Thursday 7pm, Euro snow depth map says what snow?

[ThePhotoGuy]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

What's it matter. Come Thursday 7pm, Euro snow depth map says what snow?

Cool! Thanks, I'll enjoy my snow before it gets washed away!

[CAPE]

39 approaching 5pm

Forecast here is for 1-3 tomorrow, and 3-5 tomorrow night, with 'heavy at times' wording. Maybe another half inch Wed morning before mixing and going to rain with the second wave.

[LP08]

Gfs basically identical to 12z

[MN Transplant]

Steady as she goes

[NorthArlington101]

If anyone measures close to a foot anywhere the GOOFUS will deserve an award 

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, MN Transplant said:

Steady as she goes

I feel like I have been drinking excessively and then been spun around. 

[EstorilM]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

If anyone measures close to a foot anywhere the GOOFUS will deserve an award 

And I will personally fund it lol.

[Round Hill WX]

Loudoun schools closing 3 hours early tomorrow. 

[aldie 22]

4 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Steady as she goes

That's insane 

[NorthArlington101]

fwiw

[stormy]

At 5 am the NWS posted a rather stupid WSW for my area of 4 - 6 inches when the models were at 8 inches.

My forecast is 6 - 12.

I fully expected the NWS to wake up and they did at 3 pm, raising from 4 - 6 to 5- 10.

[EastCoast NPZ]

Frederick County Schools closed tomorrow.  WTF.  LOL.

[DDweatherman]

6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

fwiw

Clearly wave 2 weds night is essential for the N MD/S PA gang. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

fwiw

Lol.  Look at the perfectly placed donut over my yard.  Can't even make this stuff up.

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Frederick County Schools closed tomorrow.  WTF.  LOL.

That map above. You are the blue dot.

[ravensrule]

Just now, EastCoast NPZ said:

Frederick County Schools closed tomorrow.  WTF.  LOL.

Come on. It’s unsafe for the children to be out under such horrific conditions. 

[notvirga!]

Wave 2 looks to help Catoctins and Sabillasville area a lot 

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, notvirga! said:

Wave 2 looks to help Catoctins and Sabillasville area a lot 

Damn right, now it has to be real. 

[IronTy]

7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

fwiw

GFS is like that dude at the end of a frat party when everybody else is passed out or going home and he wants to keep doing keg stands.

[Buddy1987]

33 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

NWS Blacksburg decided to bite what the GFS has been showing, just upped my point and click forecast snow totals from 4-8 to 6-11... we shall see. 

GFS has been steady as she goes for like the last 747 runs of this storm. Question is can we actually believe it? I feel like other guidance really isn’t as aggressive. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

That map above. You are the blue dot.

Yep.  Even the models know it now.

[bncho]

I want to see the GFS take a 100 mile north trend.

[aldie 22]

That has to be the most consistent set of runs i can ever recall 

[EastCoast NPZ]

7 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

Come on. It’s unsafe for the children to be out under such horrific conditions. 

Thickening stratus is no laughing matter.

[Imgoinhungry]

Fcps getting out 3.5 hours early. Mcps just announced it is unlikely to dismiss early.

Lol.


.

[Shad]

If this ends up even somewhat verifying the GFS is the new King and Euro can take a backseat