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Feb 11-13: Nowcast/Obs

WxUSAF

By WxUSAF,
in Mid Atlantic

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Ellinwood
Ellinwood

Snow forecast for February 11-12... lots of uncertainties with precip types on the south end and QPF amounts on the north end, and some areas could suffer rate issues during the afternoon. As a result

Bob Chill
Bob Chill

This is where i'm at. Pic is pretty bright. It's dark grey and mod snow sticking like glue everywhere. Nice   

Bob Chill
Bob Chill

Ridin the edge but still all snow. Prob gonna lull then sleet here shortly. 2" of potato glue. Smith mtn showing its face now. Beautiful morning 

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MillvilleWx

MillvilleWx

Posted
Posted

Staying in CP for the night since I have work early in the AM tomorrow. This area might actually be the worst snow place in the entire region. Rt50 on south is the area you want to be in. Didn’t agree at all with the northern extent of that Meso SPC issued. Oh well. Y’all enjoy. I’ll accept whatever flakes I get here at the University area. 

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Wetbulbs88

Wetbulbs88

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

Staying in CP for the night since I have work early in the AM tomorrow. This area might actually be the worst snow place in the entire region. Rt50 on south is the area you want to be in. Didn’t agree at all with the northern extent of that Meso SPC issued. Oh well. Y’all enjoy. I’ll accept whatever flakes I get here at the University area. 

100%. Should have been up to Baltimore at the very most. No business being up near the M/D line. 

In all likelihood DC will be the northernmost jack zone for this. Modeling is pretty much in consensus at this point. 

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Terpeast

Terpeast

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Staying in CP for the night since I have work early in the AM tomorrow. This area might actually be the worst snow place in the entire region. Rt50 on south is the area you want to be in. Didn’t agree at all with the northern extent of that Meso SPC issued. Oh well. Y’all enjoy. I’ll accept whatever flakes I get here at the University area. 

Yeah I was surprised to see myself inside the meso being in eastern loudoun. What do you think they saw in order to extend that up here and further north?

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MillvilleWx

MillvilleWx

Posted
Posted
Just now, Terpeast said:

Yeah I was surprised to see myself inside the meso being in eastern loudoun. What do you think they saw in order to extend that up here and further north?

They didn’t see anything imo. It’s a terrible forecast and someone who issued probably doesn’t understand this area. I love the people at SPC and they do an amazing job, but every now and then they make me scratch my head. Today is one of those times. 

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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah I was surprised to see myself inside the meso being in eastern loudoun. What do you think they saw in order to extend that up here and further north?

 

Just now, MillvilleWx said:

They didn’t see anything imo. It’s a terrible forecast and someone who issued probably doesn’t understand this area. I love the people at SPC and they do an amazing job, but every now and then they make me scratch my head. Today is one of those times. 

Probably accounting for the classic Loudoun to Howard death band that always sets up somehow.

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MillvilleWx

MillvilleWx

Posted
Posted
Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

 

Probably accounting for the classic Loudoun to Howard death band that always sets up somehow.

I know you’re just messin, but if they know that, then kudos to that person lol 

Highly doubt anyone there is even from this area of the country. Its majority people from the south and plains. The severe weenies from birth. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah I was surprised to see myself inside the meso being in eastern loudoun. What do you think they saw in order to extend that up here and further north?

IMG_7297.gif.99625fa07416dea4e5813086c60ebff7.gif

serious question…it started to snow pretty good for 15 mins then it sunk south and is just snizzle again. Looking at radar I don’t see anything pushing north at all to my west and the band here is sinking south. So was that it?  Is there a chance that 15 min of snow was the whole deal up here?  
 

BTW ya I know this isn’t supposed to be big up here but they are still predicting 2-3” not 2-3 mm. 

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Wxtrix

Wxtrix

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, yoda said:

mcd0082.png

  

 Mesoscale Discussion 0082
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0149 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025

   Areas affected...parts of the Mid-Atlantic

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 111949Z - 112345Z

   SUMMARY...A band of heavy snow developing across the Mid-Atlantic
   region will be capable of moderate to heavy snowfall rates upwards
   of 1-2 inches per hour. Similar bands and snowfall rates will be
   possible through early evening.

   DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows an organized
   precipitation/snow band developing from west-central VA into the
   Chesapeake Bay area. Recent snowfall reports from central VA and
   surface observations reporting visibility reductions between 0.25 to
   0.5 mile suggest moderate to heavy snowfall rates are ongoing. This
   band is largely being driven by a combination of strong warm-air
   advection and frontogenesis within the 925-700 mb layer and may
   persist for another hour or two given the strength of forcing for
   ascent. Additional banding is possible heading into the late
   afternoon hours as a weak mid-level impulse - and the primary
   precipitation shield - migrates into the region and to the
   north/northeast into northern MD and DE. Recent guidance suggests
   heavy snow potential will likely peak across the Chesapeake Bay area
   during the 21-00 UTC period. Although surface temperatures across
   this region remain near/above freezing, dewpoints in the 20s suggest
   that temperatures will likely fall to below freezing due to
   low-level evaporative cooling associated with the onset of
   precipitation, which should support heavier snowfall rates later
   this afternoon.

   ..Moore.. 02/11/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

just seeing this. and now i have heavier rates and bigger flakes. previously it had actually looked more foggy than snowy with the tiny flakes that were falling. 29/28.

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stormtracker

stormtracker

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Staying in CP for the night since I have work early in the AM tomorrow. This area might actually be the worst snow place in the entire region. Rt50 on south is the area you want to be in. Didn’t agree at all with the northern extent of that Meso SPC issued. Oh well. Y’all enjoy. I’ll accept whatever flakes I get here at the University area. 

Ok, so you think that Meso was good for DC.  Definitely homering it right now.

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