Feb 11-13: Nowcast/Obs

[stormtracker]

8 minutes ago, yoda said:

 

 Mesoscale Discussion 0082
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0149 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025

   Areas affected...parts of the Mid-Atlantic

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 111949Z - 112345Z

   SUMMARY...A band of heavy snow developing across the Mid-Atlantic
   region will be capable of moderate to heavy snowfall rates upwards
   of 1-2 inches per hour. Similar bands and snowfall rates will be
   possible through early evening.

   DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows an organized
   precipitation/snow band developing from west-central VA into the
   Chesapeake Bay area. Recent snowfall reports from central VA and
   surface observations reporting visibility reductions between 0.25 to
   0.5 mile suggest moderate to heavy snowfall rates are ongoing. This
   band is largely being driven by a combination of strong warm-air
   advection and frontogenesis within the 925-700 mb layer and may
   persist for another hour or two given the strength of forcing for
   ascent. Additional banding is possible heading into the late
   afternoon hours as a weak mid-level impulse - and the primary
   precipitation shield - migrates into the region and to the
   north/northeast into northern MD and DE. Recent guidance suggests
   heavy snow potential will likely peak across the Chesapeake Bay area
   during the 21-00 UTC period. Although surface temperatures across
   this region remain near/above freezing, dewpoints in the 20s suggest
   that temperatures will likely fall to below freezing due to
   low-level evaporative cooling associated with the onset of
   precipitation, which should support heavier snowfall rates later
   this afternoon.

   ..Moore.. 02/11/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

Heck of a way to run a bust

[hstorm]

19z RAP was slightly wetter again around DC.  HRRR looks like it will be wetter too.  Both now more in line with the model consensus.

[nj2va]

1 minute ago, hstorm said:

19z RAP was slightly wetter again around DC.  HRRR looks like it will be wetter too.  Both now more in line with the model consensus.

But what do CWG and Bob Ryan say?

[Warm Nose]

1 minute ago, hstorm said:

19z RAP was slightly wetter again around DC.  HRRR looks like it will be wetter too.  Both now more in line with the model consensus.

So, a cave then?

[Grothar of Herndon]

36/25

Steady small flakes with occasional larger flakes Trees, ground, and mulch turning white...

[GATECH]

13 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

When was the snowstorm event in n/c VA that stranded people on I-95 for a day or so? I recall it being in early Jan was it 2022? This could be similar? 

Jan 3, 2022

[EstorilM]

WTOP radio just said “looks like the DC area is going to be the jackpot for this winter storm” 

[Wetbulbs88]

Still just heavy flurries for the past 1.5 hours. The goods are flirting with DC per radar, should be any minute now...

[Solution Man]

 

Reflectivity 

 

Incoming 

[jmk]

the bands down by Fredricksburg look legit. 

[wxdude64]

3 pm measurements, 4.0 on the cleaned at 1 pm board, 11.8 inches on the untouched board. Adding up the cleaned board makes 12.5 inches total of snowfall since 7 am. Still snowing pretty hard and 29.6/28.9. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

It's been steadily snowing for 3 hours.  I have a dusting.  Small flakes, weak rates, half of it melting.  All of the usual fail modes here.

[PWC Split]

White rain becoming a little less rainy, moderately falling and covering the grass blades in a clumpy, spring snow sort of way. Still 31F at 3:10 in Haymarket.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

3k now keeps us snowing til 2am....nooooice.

[hstorm]

3 minutes ago, Warm Nose said:

So, a cave then?

One could say.  Here is the 19z RAP Kuchera.  This morning it was showing about half as much snow around DC:

[WVclimo]

1 minute ago, hstorm said:

One could say.  Here is the 19z RAP Kuchera.  This morning it was showing about half as much snow around DC:

RAP gives my yard double the amount that the NAM does. Hope it’s on to something

[NorthArlington101]

Dumping on traffic cams south of Fredericksburg - MM 121.7 looks nasty.

https://www.weatherbug.com/traffic-cam/?latlng=38.17651,-77.5019&camId=454726

[deer]

time for a jebwalk

[CAPE]

18z NAM sure is wetter.

[MN Transplant]

5 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

3 pm measurements, 4.0 on the cleaned at 1 pm board, 11.8 inches on the untouched board. Adding up the cleaned board makes 12.5 inches total of snowfall since 7 am. Still snowing pretty hard and 29.6/28.9. 

Huge win.  Congrats!

[mitchnick]

Lt/mod snow in Hanover... not that any of you care you lucky bastids!

[kraken613]

Ground and Decks starting to cave in Gaithersburg near RIO. 

[Solution Man]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Lt/mod snow in Hanover... not that any of you care you lucky bastids!

You been all over this, you can have some of my snow brother 

[H2O]

Finally hit freezing.  Sat at 32.5 from 2:45 to 3:05.  Then I stared at my weather station for like 5 min and gave it the biggest resting bitch face i could.  Temp then fell to 32.1.  Then I REALLY fucking glared at it.  

31.8 now.

Steady light to mod snow.  Its gotten a lot darker tho.  Darkness.

[wawarriors4]

5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Dumping on traffic cams south of Fredericksburg - MM 121.7 looks nasty.

https://www.weatherbug.com/traffic-cam/?latlng=38.17651,-77.5019&camId=454726

Heavy Snow, 30, everything is caving.

[Cpoise2002]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Lt/mod snow in Hanover... not that any of you care you lucky bastids!

I'm in Hanover as well and concur lol

[DDweatherman]

This is where models started to show the precip have a bit more northerly component to it as more energy pushes through. Radar starting to show that it seems.

[WxUSAF]

Wetbulbing with light pixie dust. 33/20

[csnavywx]

Started snowing at 1:17pm. Quick ramp to 1"+/hr. Now at 2" with some sleet starting to mix in. Max band prob going to end up a bit north of me.

[Miss Pixee]

31/28DP

We are now below the Mendoza line...snow sticking everywhere. Trees, bushes. Grass going white. Starting to stick to cars. Might get some sweet totals out of this one.