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Feb 11-13: Nowcast/Obs


WxUSAF
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This is a truly scared group in here. I just looked at guidance with the QPF distribution and this is still looking exactly as planned. The most QPF deficient model is the HRRR at range and even that is 1-4” north of I-70, 3-6” Central MD, 4-8” Rt50 on south with even some 8+ possible in Calvert and Northern St Mary’s over into interior lower slower Sussex Co DE. I haven’t seen anything that looks very different. I like what the offices have for WWA and WSW’s across the board. It’s gonna snow! 

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Just now, ravensrule said:

Everything will come back 10-20 miles North tonight. 

I keep holding onto this sentiment because it seems like every time we’ve gotten a storm with little to no blocking setup, like clockwork the r/s line has at least one north jaunt before game time, often to heartbreaking results. Suddenly getting a stubborn storm in that setting when we couldn’t buy that for a while doesn’t sit right with me, but we are getting very close now…

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This is a truly scared group in here. I just looked at guidance with the QPF distribution and this is still looking exactly as planned. The most QPF deficient model is the HRRR at range and even that is 1-4” north of I-70, 3-6” Central MD, 4-8” Rt50 on south with even some 8+ possible in Calvert and Northern St Mary’s over into interior lower slower Sussex Co DE. I haven’t seen anything that looks very different. I like what the offices have for WWA and WSW’s across the board. It’s gonna snow! 

Your decision to relocate further south for the winter continues to look like a power move.
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25 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Let’s be clear about the HRRR.  There have only been 3 runs that take it to 6z Wednesday and 2 through 12z.  The 06z run at 48 hours had 0.11” precip through 48 at DC.  The current run has 0.40” through the same period.  

I should specify I was specifically looking at MD where its DAF 

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6 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

This is a truly scared group in here. I just looked at guidance with the QPF distribution and this is still looking exactly as planned. The most QPF deficient model is the HRRR at range and even that is 1-4” north of I-70, 3-6” Central MD, 4-8” Rt50 on south with even some 8+ possible in Calvert and Northern St Mary’s over into interior lower slower Sussex Co DE. I haven’t seen anything that looks very different. I like what the offices have for WWA and WSW’s across the board. It’s gonna snow! 

My expectation was firmly planted at 4" earlier but thanks to you it's now 8+.  

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Just now, EstorilM said:

I'm worried that was the typical juicy NAM run though, everything else seems to be saying otherwise with the latest suite.

The 18z 3km NAM looks healthy and pretty much held serve from 12z which was great to see. It’s definitely the superior NAM model. The 12km was obviously overdone compared to other guidance at 12z so not surprising it came back down to earth a bit but the totals are still solid.

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9 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Can h57 of the 18z NAM deliver? Probably the best chance at making up for lost snow tomorrow/weds AM. 

Also, @stormtracker or anyone else, should my file max size be 261kb? Recently, I haven't been able to attach anything...

Your image storage is full. You will have to delete uploaded media to make space for new ones.

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So far the last few winters my move from Leesburg to Aldie has not resulted in any lost snow and in fact i may be ahead this year. In case most don't know where Aldie is I'm basically at the far northern tip of where Prince Willian County meets Loudoun...just a bit to the north and right of there in Loudoun County...get on 50 west and drive almost to 15.

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