Feb 11-13: Nowcast/Obs

[DDweatherman]

For comparisons sake, look at 18z 12k Nam hour 9 vs hour 15 from 12z. Safe to say we really shouldn’t use that model whatsoever (for anyone that didn’t already know) 

[NorthArlington101]

Meso’d for heavy snow of up to 1-2”/hr

[Solution Man]

Radar looking filthy to the west

[JenkinsJinkies]

Flakes started in Parkville 10 minutes ago

[hstorm]

18z NAM is acceptable.  Waiting on 3k NAM.

[Roger Smith]

When was the snowstorm event in n/c VA that stranded people on I-95 for a day or so? I recall it being in early Jan was it 2022? This could be similar? 

[weatherCCB]

34/24

light. Very fine snow

[Eskimo Joe]

FOLKS

 

 

[mappy]

4 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Look again  

Ha, I was waiting for your confirmation hahaha. I don't trust non-weather weenies lol

[Snowman.]

18z 3km NAM looks like it’s gonna be juiced and healthy

[mappy]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

FOLKS

 

 

*FOKES  

[LeesburgWx]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

FOLKS

 

 

1-2” per hour you say

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Meso’d for heavy snow of up to 1-2”/hr

 

 Mesoscale Discussion 0082
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0149 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025

   Areas affected...parts of the Mid-Atlantic

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 111949Z - 112345Z

   SUMMARY...A band of heavy snow developing across the Mid-Atlantic
   region will be capable of moderate to heavy snowfall rates upwards
   of 1-2 inches per hour. Similar bands and snowfall rates will be
   possible through early evening.

   DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows an organized
   precipitation/snow band developing from west-central VA into the
   Chesapeake Bay area. Recent snowfall reports from central VA and
   surface observations reporting visibility reductions between 0.25 to
   0.5 mile suggest moderate to heavy snowfall rates are ongoing. This
   band is largely being driven by a combination of strong warm-air
   advection and frontogenesis within the 925-700 mb layer and may
   persist for another hour or two given the strength of forcing for
   ascent. Additional banding is possible heading into the late
   afternoon hours as a weak mid-level impulse - and the primary
   precipitation shield - migrates into the region and to the
   north/northeast into northern MD and DE. Recent guidance suggests
   heavy snow potential will likely peak across the Chesapeake Bay area
   during the 21-00 UTC period. Although surface temperatures across
   this region remain near/above freezing, dewpoints in the 20s suggest
   that temperatures will likely fall to below freezing due to
   low-level evaporative cooling associated with the onset of
   precipitation, which should support heavier snowfall rates later
   this afternoon.

   ..Moore.. 02/11/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, Snowman. said:

18z 3km NAM looks like it’s gonna be juiced and healthy

backend on the hi-res stuff has been getting better... backbuilding is the one thing we always do well. HRRR and RAP at this point both do have another light round in the AM before flipping to ice, which LWX hinted at in their last AFD

[NorthArlington101]

[Jebman]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Eastern Prince William is getting NAM'med!

[Bob Chill]

100% sleet now. Metal roof is clinkin and pingin. Plenty of precip on the way if the column can hold. Not cold enough for zr. 31-32 around the area. Accretion won't come easy 

[aldie 22]

Solid steady snow all things getting covered except pavement

 

[Jebman]

South Cen Texas has gotten 3 to 4 inches of rain. One inch was forecast. Sending the moisture over to the Mid Atlantic, in the form of heavy snow, with a lot of love!

This puppy is definitely gonna overperform!

[BristowWx]

5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Meso’d for heavy snow of up to 1-2”/hr

No…really?  I love those mesos

[Solution Man]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

[Terpeast]

But surprised I'm in the meso 1-2"/hr area, too. Despite light returns, it's coming down good here. Borderline moderate. 31.3

[Jebman]

4 minutes ago, yoda said:

 

 Mesoscale Discussion 0082
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0149 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025

   Areas affected...parts of the Mid-Atlantic

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 111949Z - 112345Z

   SUMMARY...A band of heavy snow developing across the Mid-Atlantic
   region will be capable of moderate to heavy snowfall rates upwards
   of 1-2 inches per hour. Similar bands and snowfall rates will be
   possible through early evening.

   DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows an organized
   precipitation/snow band developing from west-central VA into the
   Chesapeake Bay area. Recent snowfall reports from central VA and
   surface observations reporting visibility reductions between 0.25 to
   0.5 mile suggest moderate to heavy snowfall rates are ongoing. This
   band is largely being driven by a combination of strong warm-air
   advection and frontogenesis within the 925-700 mb layer and may
   persist for another hour or two given the strength of forcing for
   ascent. Additional banding is possible heading into the late
   afternoon hours as a weak mid-level impulse - and the primary
   precipitation shield - migrates into the region and to the
   north/northeast into northern MD and DE. Recent guidance suggests
   heavy snow potential will likely peak across the Chesapeake Bay area
   during the 21-00 UTC period. Although surface temperatures across
   this region remain near/above freezing, dewpoints in the 20s suggest
   that temperatures will likely fall to below freezing due to
   low-level evaporative cooling associated with the onset of
   precipitation, which should support heavier snowfall rates later
   this afternoon.

   ..Moore.. 02/11/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

CONGRATS, Mid Atlantic! YOU JUST HIT THE JACK!

 

 

[ifindppl]

Light snow in Olney, moistening the sidewalk, but not enough to stick.

[nj2va]

8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Meso’d for heavy snow of up to 1-2”/hr

But I heard it was sunny earlier and a bunch of debs/trolls were calling bust. 

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

But surprised I'm in the meso 1-2"/hr area, too. Despite light returns, it's coming down good here. Borderline moderate

Could I trouble you to post that?.  Thank you sir 

[CAPE]

Light snow has begun here.

[yoda]

7 minutes ago, yoda said:

 

 Mesoscale Discussion 0082
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0149 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025

   Areas affected...parts of the Mid-Atlantic

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 111949Z - 112345Z

   SUMMARY...A band of heavy snow developing across the Mid-Atlantic
   region will be capable of moderate to heavy snowfall rates upwards
   of 1-2 inches per hour. Similar bands and snowfall rates will be
   possible through early evening.

   DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows an organized
   precipitation/snow band developing from west-central VA into the
   Chesapeake Bay area. Recent snowfall reports from central VA and
   surface observations reporting visibility reductions between 0.25 to
   0.5 mile suggest moderate to heavy snowfall rates are ongoing. This
   band is largely being driven by a combination of strong warm-air
   advection and frontogenesis within the 925-700 mb layer and may
   persist for another hour or two given the strength of forcing for
   ascent. Additional banding is possible heading into the late
   afternoon hours as a weak mid-level impulse - and the primary
   precipitation shield - migrates into the region and to the
   north/northeast into northern MD and DE. Recent guidance suggests
   heavy snow potential will likely peak across the Chesapeake Bay area
   during the 21-00 UTC period. Although surface temperatures across
   this region remain near/above freezing, dewpoints in the 20s suggest
   that temperatures will likely fall to below freezing due to
   low-level evaporative cooling associated with the onset of
   precipitation, which should support heavier snowfall rates later
   this afternoon.

   ..Moore.. 02/11/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

 

Just now, BristowWx said:

Could I trouble you to post that?.  Thank you sir 

 

[SnowenOutThere]

Grass is really starting to cave here, going to go out to take pictures of some birds (hopefully cardinals) in the snow.

[Terrapinwx]

We’ve had 30 minutes of moderate snow in Chesapeake Beach and it’s sticking to everything but the roads. Temperature now down to 31.6


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