Feb 11-13: Nowcast/Obs

[WxUSAF]

Warnings and advisories issued. Warnings up for all of MoCo and HoCo. Advisories for everything north/east of them. 

[Baltimorewx]

37 minutes ago, mappy said:

Why is 7-9am at the bottom!!?!!!

Legends 101 lol

[RevWarReenactor]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This one is not going to be the one to break your streak of bad luck.  Sorry 

Yep.

6 minutes ago, mappy said:

Not sure why you think it’s grassy surfaces only. It will be cold enough to stick. It’s just a qpf issue for us further north. 

We go mid 30's tomorrow. Light precip. Anything falling before sunset won't stick to the streets, and will barely stick to the grass. We might start to get road stickage by nightfall but at that point how much precip have we burned off? Maybe the streets will get a dusting, that will melt off as soon as the snow stops. Thats my forecast anyway.

[stormtracker]

Hmm, bullish.  4-8

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
251 PM EST Mon Feb 10 2025

DCZ001-MDZ013-014-016>018-VAZ053>055-057-526-527-110400-
/O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0007.250211T1800Z-250212T1200Z/
/O.EXB.KLWX.WS.W.0006.250211T1800Z-250212T1200Z/
District of Columbia-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St.
Marys-Calvert-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-
King George-Northwest Prince William-Central and Southeast Prince
William/Manassas/Manassas Park-
251 PM EST Mon Feb 10 2025

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 4 to
  8 inches.

* WHERE...The District of Columbia, central and southern Maryland,
  and central and northern Virginia.

* WHEN...From 1 PM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions
  could impact the Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning commutes.
  now will overspread the area late Tuesday morning into Tuesday
  afternoon, with the steadiest snow expected late Tuesday afternoon
  and evening. A light wintry mix may continue into Wednesday, but
  little to no additional accumulation is expected.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates around 1 to 2 inches per hour
  are possible late Tuesday afternoon and evening.

[Terpeast]

 

[MN Transplant]

Let’s be clear about the HRRR.  There have only been 3 runs that take it to 6z Wednesday and 2 through 12z.  The 06z run at 48 hours had 0.11” precip through 48 at DC.  The current run has 0.40” through the same period.  

[IronTy]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

 

I take back everything I said earlier about moons and slush.  

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

NAM isn't gonna be as pretty as 12z.  Def weaker/souther.

[Terpeast]

Sticking with my first call, no reason to change it yet. 3-6" DC & NW burbs, 4-8" south till you get to EZF then mixing further south

[mappy]

5 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Yep.

We go mid 30's tomorrow. Light precip. Anything falling before sunset won't stick to the streets, and will barely stick to the grass. We might start to get road stickage by nightfall but at that point how much precip have we burned off? Maybe the streets will get a dusting, that will melt off as soon as the snow stops. Thats my forecast anyway.

Ok. Enjoy your slushy inch in the grass, I guess. 

[arlwx12]

My radio just alarmed me.

[wtkidz]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Sticking with my first call, no reason to change it yet. 3-6" DC & NW burbs, 4-8" south till you get to EZF then mixing further south

Reasonable cause you know Fredericksburg is the rain/snow line of  Virginia. After living here for over 40 years I can attest to it.  

[T. August]

4 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

NAM isn't gonna be as pretty as 12z.  Def weaker/souther.

Still passable for DC but ugly north

[arlwx12]

Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-
Caroline-
Including the cities of Centreville, Easton, Rehoboth Beach,
Georgetown, Denton, Dover, and Chestertown
301 PM EST Mon Feb 10 2025

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 5 and
  7 inches, with localized totals as high as 7 to 9 inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central and southern Delaware and northeast
  Maryland.

* WHEN...From 1 PM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, T. August said:

Still passable for DC but ugly north

It's a little slower so perhaps a bit of a later save in the later panels though.

[Solution Man]

Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

It's a little slower so perhaps a bit of a later save in the later panels though.

Definitely not done

[AlexD1990]

1 minute ago, arlwx12 said:

Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-
Caroline-
Including the cities of Centreville, Easton, Rehoboth Beach,
Georgetown, Denton, Dover, and Chestertown
301 PM EST Mon Feb 10 2025

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 5 and
  7 inches, with localized totals as high as 7 to 9 inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central and southern Delaware and northeast
  Maryland.

* WHEN...From 1 PM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday.

Radio at work actually did the EAS tone for this. Good thing I already sent everyone an email this morning 

[Solution Man]

Solid 14 hours of snow at panel 36, bit more to come

[Snowman.]

Honestly, the NAM run around DC is still pretty solid and probably more realistic than 12z.

[300 square feet]

23 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Not to be pessimistic, but we onlt got 2.4 here from the Jan 6th storm. This looks like a weaker of version of that, and in the last 10 years the best bet for this location is take NWS forecast and divide by 2.

I am thinking 1-2 inches. Grassy surfaces only Baltimore/DC will do better. Maybe 3-4 inches there.

Sadly I think you might be right. 

[baltosquid]

Would take the NAM in a heartbeat but we really can’t keep bleeding moisture.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

3K looks healthy

[stormtracker]

NAM really isn't that bad

[AACOUNTYMD]

how much later does the NAM start? Later is better, no?  with respect to accumulating snow

[bncho]

I thought the NAM caved to like 2-4"... y'all are overdramatic AF

[Solution Man]

 

 

[Terpeast]

the 12k NAM was definitely overdone, and I don't see much change on the 3k NAM from previous run yet.

looks like 5-6" when lopping off the initial inch before dark for DC metro including IAD. This is 10 to 1

[stormtracker]

Yeah, it seems to be a bit slower and it closed a little better

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

I thought the NAM caved to like 2-4"... y'all are overdramatic AF

Some, need to check themselves in to the panic room

[LeesburgWx]

lol NAM looks good