Feb 11-13: Nowcast/Obs

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

It's not really supposed to do anything notable for NOVA/DC until like 4pm, if that. Real accumulations are after 7pm. No panic yet.

That gentleman has been a bit panicky since he started posting. Bringing some of that accuweather swagger over to here i guess

[jayyy]

Really hoping our market makes the decision to close our stores early. I’m working 12-9 today. I can likely leave safely at 5pm.. not so much 9pm

[ThePhotoGuy]

Temp rising. Up to 34.7. Classic easterner snowstorm! 

[JenkinsJinkies]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

It's not really supposed to do anything notable for NOVA/DC until like 4pm, if that. Real accumulations are after 7pm. No panic yet.

I think it's because the sun raises temps (yes I'm aware that snowfall rates can counteract a warmer ground) and that clouds breaking up now could translate to more dry slots than expected once it comes through later.

[EstorilM]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

It's not really supposed to do anything notable for NOVA/DC until like 4pm, if that. Real accumulations are after 7pm. No panic yet.

Not panicking, but I’m pretty sure the 06z NAM had precip overspreading the area by 11am - we aren’t even remotely close to that. WSW is for 1 so yeah, I’d assume a bit after that. 
 

Still, it’s DRY here - which is ironic because people were saying we wouldn’t have the virga issues we had on 1/6 lol. 

[WesternFringe]

Been snowing since 8:30 or so.  Coming up on a couple inches so far.  29° here northwest of Staunton in Augusta County.

[nj2va]

1 minute ago, EstorilM said:

Not panicking, but I’m pretty sure the 06z NAM had precip overspreading the area by 11am - we aren’t even remotely close to that. WSW is for 1 so yeah, I’d assume a bit after that. 
 

Still, it’s DRY here - which is ironic because people were saying we wouldn’t have the virga issues we had on 1/6 lol. 

Evaporational cooling is a wonderful thing when we need to drop 5-8 degrees.

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, EstorilM said:

Not panicking, but I’m pretty sure the 06z NAM had precip overspreading the area by 11am - we aren’t even remotely close to that. WSW is for 1 so yeah, I’d assume a bit after that. 
 

Still, it’s DRY here - which is ironic because people were saying we wouldn’t have the virga issues we had on 1/6 lol. 

This is total snow on the 3k by 4pm - and quite frankly unless your temps are good right now I wouldn't expect this to stick (or if you are in the blues where they have rates)... i assume this part of the storm is a wash in dc til at least 5. Won't care if I've got 0" on the ground til 6pm or so then i'll go insane

[Baltimorewx]

2 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Really hoping our market makes the decision to close our stores early. I’m working 12-9 today. I can likely leave safely at 5pm.. not so much 9pm

Is union bridge in northern Frederick county? This isn’t a crippling storm. While roads may be starting to cover over by 9, you’ll be lucky to have more than 1” by then. In my opinion anyway 

[EstorilM]

1 minute ago, aldie 22 said:

That gentleman has been a bit panicky since he started posting. Bringing some of that accuweather swagger over to here i guess

Funny guy lol. 
 

I'm usually overly optimistic, I just never saw the stars lining up for this one (especially after the 12z stuff yesterday, shrinking/southward precip shield, mixing and rain post-snow, etc.) 

 

I am a bit jealous of the RIC-Fburg guys though. 

[aldie 22]

2 minutes ago, EstorilM said:

Not panicking, but I’m pretty sure the 06z NAM had precip overspreading the area by 11am - we aren’t even remotely close to that. WSW is for 1 so yeah, I’d assume a bit after that. 
 

Still, it’s DRY here - which is ironic because people were saying we wouldn’t have the virga issues we had on 1/6 lol. 

There were METS in here literally saying that they were happy the NAM was delaying the start until about 3pm because they had errands to run. Relax a bit bud it will be ok whether it snows or not

[mitchnick]

It's making slow progress east.

https://cyclonicwx.com/radar/nemetro/

[TSG]

Wet-bulbing has gotten us down to 29F in Albemarle after a high of 34F around 9am, 2 degrees colder than the 15z HRRR initialized at for this area. That seems like a good sign for us down here later, maybe not a great sign for those way north.

29/26, SN, ~2" otg, visibility fluctuating between 1-0.5 mile

[WxUSAF]

33/19 at home

[mappy]

13 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

I could see them calling a delay tonight, and at 5:30am close. 

I partially envy the kids today, the county closes for stuff they only delayed for in my day. However distance learning didn't exist back then so if I had multiple snow days I had those days off. I had an extended Christmas break in 2009, a week and a half off 2 months later, and about the same amount of time off Senior year.

Yeah, I could see that too. But guess it doesn’t matter a whole lot with their virtual learning plan in place. They be learning whether it’s at school or at home 

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, TSG said:

Wet-bulbing has gotten us down to 29F in Albemarle, 2 degrees colder then the 15z HRRR initialized at for this area. That seems like a good sign for us down here later, maybe not a great sign for those way north. I wouldn't be surprised if we don't make it to the forecast 33F.

29/26, SN, ~2" otg, visibility fluctuating between 1-0.5 mile

Rotunda pics!! Counting on you. 

[EstorilM]

2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Evaporational cooling is a wonderful thing when we need to drop 5-8 degrees.

I’m not too worried about temps (though I don’t expect anything to stick for a while, up to 35 now.) 

 

DPs are still below 20 here though, that’ll definitely take a while to erode away. 

[TSG]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Rotunda pics!! Counting on you. 

haha I'll get over there later once it's piled up a bit more. I can't remember, did you typically do night shots or day? or both?

[Interstate]

31.3/20.4 here in 21057

[LeesburgWx]

Why is everyone cliff diving already?

[HighStakes]

3 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

There were METS in here literally saying that they were happy the NAM was delaying the start until about 3pm because they had errands to run. Relax a bit bud it will be ok whether it snows or not

You're doing a wonderful job as board psychologist. 

[Jandurin]

1 minute ago, EstorilM said:

I’m not too worried about temps (though I don’t expect anything to stick for a while, up to 35 now.) 

 

DPs are still below 20 here though, that’ll definitely take a while to erode away. 

I mean the DP is 18 here which surely isn't bad?

The highest the DP can even get is 32.

What was the DP before January 6

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, TSG said:

haha I'll get over there later once it's piled up a bit more. I can't remember, did you typically do night shots or day? or both?

Both but I’d take either - usually when it snowed I’d take like a 10 mile walk around Grounds, up O’Hill, through the woods… but don’t feel the need to do all that!

[Curlyq]

One thermometer reads 35 and another 36.  Cloudy here in 21701.

[nj2va]

7 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

There were METS in here literally saying that they were happy the NAM was delaying the start until about 3pm because they had errands to run. Relax a bit bud it will be ok whether it snows or not

OPM is going to cancel the 2p early release due to the sun obs.

[Eskimo Joe]

3 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

Why is everyone cliff diving already?

Evergreen worry in this subforum.

[WVclimo]

Overcast and 32/18 here on the northern fringe.

[Interstate]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Evergreen worry in this subforum.

So now pine trees are worried about the pending snow storm?

[Jandurin]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Evergreen worry in this subforum.

[TSG]

15z HRRR is improved for the northern crew