Feb 11-13: Nowcast/Obs

[dailylurker]

4 minutes ago, mappy said:

Got it. Hope that virga doesn’t eat too much of your qpf. Would hate to see the new north and west bust 

Snow towns don't bust. Bust high maybe! Lol

Cloudy and wintery. The ground is frozen so thats a plus. 

[osfan24]

Lock up that NAM run @WxUSAF. I'd be thrilled with 6 inches. My fear is we get half that.

[Eskimo Joe]

12z RAOB from Sterling has a small layer of dry air, but nothing like we've seen in earlier storms.

[H2O]

5 minutes ago, mappy said:

Got it. Hope that virga doesn’t eat too much of your qpf. Would hate to see the new north and west bust 

Usually the heat lowlanders have from being low and rainy more cause the snow to evaporate.  So could be an issue.  EastCoastNPZ is part of the NW crew and never does well.  The new NW crew will have their own Stephens City. 

[WVsnowlover]

Last four runs of the NAM. It's been very consistent.

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Lock up that NAM run @WxUSAF. I'd be thrilled with 6 inches. My fear is we get half that.

Yeah I don’t want to look at any other guidance today lol. 6” is probably a stretch for us unless we get a good band with higher ratios for a couple hours this evening. But NAM gives me more confidence that 4-5” is likely. Verifying the warning would be a big win IMO.

[Chris_B]

19 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

5” is a very realistic target for us

I have a beer bet for > 4" in Arl/Falls Church.  Feeling good about it.

[mappy]

6 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Snow towns don't bust. Bust high maybe! Lol

Cloudy and wintery. The ground is frozen so thats a plus. 

Snow towns don’t cheer for their wins until it happens. Good luck to ya. 

[Bob Chill]

2.5" and a mix of sleet and snow. Column isn't wrecked yet but it's prob an uphill climb for additional accums other than sleet 

[Paleocene]

8 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Snow towns don't bust. Bust high maybe! Lol

Cloudy and wintery. The ground is frozen so thats a plus. 

I called the E-W silver spring to crofton jackpot a couple days ago.

[dailylurker]

7 minutes ago, mappy said:

Snow towns don’t cheer for their wins until it happens. Good luck to ya. 

Trust me. I know lol. Just having some fun this morning. I honestly hope va gets shafted and all the people up here score. Hell. Let's all score! Good luck to everyone. Ive enjoyed reading every comment from everyone. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Late in the game for JV model watching but I'm bored lol, ICON looks better.

[NorthArlington101]

Snowing and sticking in Harrisonburg, per family. I think Harrisonburg & Cville are in great spots today. Time to go back to school!

[Grothar of Herndon]

33/19

Cloudy

[Jrlg1181]

Afton currently near 250  and  64  intersection.   

[paxpatriot]

30.1 and we actually had some pixie flakes falling on the way into work in Hagerstown about an hour ago. Maybe we'll beat the dry air some of the models are showing? At this point, 3 inches would be a win with this storm for us.

[wxdude64]

2 minutes ago, Jrlg1181 said:

Afton currently near 250  and  64  intersection.   

So you take 250 to top of mountain to get on 64E? 

[87storms]

Had to drive into Columbia for work...probably gonna head home during lunch.  I have absolutely zero interest in being on 70 during rush hour.

Latest NAM looks acceptable.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, 87storms said:

Had to drive into Columbia for work...probably gonna head home during lunch.  I have absolutely zero interest in being on 70 during rush hour.

Latest NAM looks acceptable.

You are taking your life in your hands driving on highways in this area with snow.  

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Latest reggie a tad snowier for everyone too.  It's nice to have the models trending the right way at gametime. 

[Ji]

2.5" and a mix of sleet and snow. Column isn't wrecked yet but it's prob an uphill climb for additional accums other than sleet 

Remind me to move to not where you live

[Jrlg1181]

2 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

So you take 250 to top of mountain to get on 64E? 

Yes, coming home later i certainly will not come down the mt on 250 though... 

[TowsonWeather]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

For northern MD crew.
 

I was holding out some hope that 2 things could save us. A sneaky h7 associated band on the northern fringe and maybe getting a couple inches then ice from wave 2.  Both of those hopes are fading. 
 

The h7 forcing is going north of us. It’s very disconnected from the main moisture feed, very similar to Jan 6. This will limit that bands effectiveness but could mean a 2-4” surprise for some places up in central PA that aren’t forecasted to get much snow at all.  But we are likely stuck in between again like Jan 6 only worse, I think there is more dry air and less healthy moisture transport with this one. 
 

The second option doesn’t look good either. The euro showed the mid level winds ahead of the amplifying second wave to be more s-n which eradicates the mid level cold faster and doesn’t allow for much WAA associated precip to break out ahead of the low. You need resistance to get lift and precip. If the warm just bullies the cold away you don’t get the lift.  The gfs and NAMs were showing a more SW-NE wind trajectory which lead to more cold resistance and a nice WAA thump snow. Alas they caved to the euro. 
 

My best guess for us is 1-3” from wave 1 and then maybe a little sleet and freezing rain to start wave 2 before it all gets washed away. 
 

If the coming period is what I expect our area should have our more typical geographical advantages in a more amplified pattern. 

Appreciate the insights - as bleak as they may be for us north of Baltimore. I'll be happy with 2-3 inches at this point. But less wouldn't surprise me at all. Really not expecting much of any consequence. One of these days (years?) we'll break out of this nearly decade-long slump, but it is not this day, haha.

Congrats to DC south and the NOVA folks (except Richmond, cause F 'em) - enjoy it!

[wxdude64]

Just a smidge over 5 inches on the uncleared snowboard at 10 am.

Edit- checked the 7 am cleared, same on the cleared too, little compaction going on.

[Fozz]

5 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said:

Appreciate the insights - as bleak as they may be for us north of Baltimore. I'll be happy with 2-3 inches at this point. But less wouldn't surprise me at all. Really not expecting much of any consequence. One of these days (years?) we'll break out of this nearly decade-long slump, but it is not this day, haha.

Congrats to DC south the NOVA folks (except Richmond, cause F 'em) - enjoy it!

I’ve always had a soft spot for Richmond, especially since they went many years without any real snow (not even the 2-4” events we roll our eyes at) back in the 00s. And they got relatively shafted in 2009-10.

As for this storm, I’m keeping my expectation where it is. I think we’ll do better than the M/D line crowd. Nice to see it delivering in VA so far.

[EstorilM]

32.0 in Middleburg. Have a clean LoS to Mt Weather and don’t see anything obscuring the mountains so… lots of filling in to do.

 

As usual, not much is making it across I-81 and if it does, it’s gone by the time it moves west. 
 

DP 18 and humidity has dropped to 58%. Yikes. 

[Fozz]

This is my first time working at the office at my current job on a day that it starts snowing later. I wish my job made an announcement beforehand, but they did not, so here I am.

Rush hour should be fun. Snow will be falling, but not too heavy.

[Round Hill WX]

31/20 in Round Hill. I'm going with 4.75" here as my forecast. The slight SE low-level winds typically help with some enhancement banked against the Blue Ridge. 

[Interstate]

2 minutes ago, Fozz said:

I’ve always had a soft spot for Richmond, especially since they went many years without any real snow (not even the 2-4” events we roll our eyes at) back in the 00s. And they got relatively shafted in 2009-10.

As for this storm, I’m keeping my expectation where it is. Nice to see it delivering in VA so far.

Didn't they cash in huge in Dec of 2009?

[wxdude64]

3 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Didn't they cash in huge in Dec of 2009?

I think they got like 7??